COP31 Issues to Watch

This year’s COP takes place against a backdrop of escalating climate impacts and geopolitical crises.

The war on Iran has shocked energy and food systems around the world, due to fuel and fertilizer shortages from the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Meanwhile, heatwaves, floods, fires and droughts — worsened by this year’s “Super El Niño” — are upending livelihoods, driving up prices and threatening economies. In Europe alone, extreme heat has killed over 35,000 people this year and could wipe out 1% of its GDP.

At the same time, countries’ energy needs are surging due to cooling, transport, industry and AI.

Yet alongside these crises, there’s also reason for hope. Strong policies and investments in clean energy, sustainable food and transport, ocean solutions and resilient cities are already helping countries build more prosperous and secure economies.

COP31 offers a prime opportunity to advance more low-carbon development.

Progress at COP31 will require that governments move forward on their own national climate plans and strategies, as well as cooperating with other countries, cities and initiatives. Now is the time for decision-makers to focus on successful implementation of climate action plans — not just headline pledges — to secure a better future.

3 Issues to Watch at COP31

COP31 will be successful if it can advance three critical areas:

1) Make clean electrification affordable, reliable and accessible.

The global economy remains dangerously vulnerable to fossil fuel disruptions, as we’re seeing right now with the war on Iran. COP31 offers an opportunity to turn this latest fossil fuel shock into a catalyst for more resilient energy systems.

Countries can advance a number of actions at COP31 that, if acted on by governments, would help shift the world toward cleaner, more secure energy.

Success looks like:

• Electrification: The COP Presidency has proposed a global goal of increasing electrification’s share of final energy demand to 35% by 2035, up from 23% today. Countries should sign up to this target and commit to publish credible electrification and clean energy roadmaps.
• Implementation: Countries should announce priority grid and clean energy investment pipelines, as well as advance the policy and regulatory reforms needed to unlock them.
• Finance: Countries should address the rising cost of capital for low- and middle-income countries to build stronger grids, clean power and greater energy efficiency.
• Transition away from fossil fuels: More countries should advance planning processes to transition away from fossil fuels without harming workers and others communities. Negotiators could also agree to create a new technical support hub that could facilitate just and equitable transitions in countries.

2) Step up adaptation and resilience.

Adaptation saves lives, strengthens economies and protects communities. According to WRI analysis, every $1 spent on climate adaptation can create more than $10 in benefits over 10 years. Adaptation investments could unlock 280 million jobs by 2035.

Yet developing countries still face an adaptation funding shortfall of up to $365 billion per year. Closing the gap requires getting the right kind of funding — especially grants and low-interest finance — to the communities that need it most, without adding to countries’ debt.

COP31 can make progress on adaptation through:

• Reaffirmed commitments to finance goals: Governments should reaffirm their support toward the global goal of tripling adaptation finance between 2025 and  2035 and scaling up all types of climate finance toward the $1.3 trillion goal.
• Access to finance: Countries and finance actors should agree on clear and concrete actions to enhance access to adaptation finance — especially for the poorest and most vulnerable countries. The COP Presidency’s Access to Finance Statement and Action Plan launched ahead of COP is a step in the right direction.
• Indicators of success:. COP31 should serve as a vital stepping stone toward completing negotiations on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) at COP32 in Ethiopia next year. Negotiators in Antalya must keep momentum by establishing a technical task force to support development of the Belem Adaptation Indicators and resolve debates over technical outputs.

3) Integrate ocean-based climate solutions into national and multilateral policy.

Support for ocean-based climate action is higher than ever before. This year’s Our Ocean Conference mobilized over $7.5 billion for ocean action; the High Seas Treaty entered into force; and 92% of countries included oceanic climate solutions in their national climate plans as part of the Blue NDC Challenge.

But the biggest opportunities are still largely untapped. Research shows that ocean-based climate action— such as expanding offshore renewables or restoring mangroves — could provide up to 35% of the emissions cuts needed to hold global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C. Sustainable ocean industries could create 51 million jobs over the next 20 years.

COP31 provides an opportunity to finally harness the ocean’s potential for climate action.

Over 150 experts, scientists and leaders issued a letter calling for COP31 to place the ocean at the center of the agenda, and the Türkiye and Australia Co-Presidencies heeded that call. Countries can advance concrete action by including ocean priorities in the COP31 political declaration.

Specifically, the declaration should include:

• Implementation: The final declaration should call on countries to translate ocean measures from their national climate (NDCs) and adaptation plans (NAPs) into policy, investment and measurable delivery, supported by the Blue NDC Implementation Task Force.
• 100% sustainable management: The declaration should recognize sustainable ocean planning and management as the framework for coordinating climate, biodiversity and economic choices across 100% of national waters.
• Finance: The declaration should call on finance institutions to make ocean-climate finance more accessible and fit for purpose, particularly for small island and vulnerable coastal states, including support for capacity and project preparation.