Our Solar Future - Roadmap to Mobilize USD 1 Trillion by 2030 helps meet a critical need for a massive and more equitable scale-up of investment in solar energy by providing recommendations for mobilizing $1 trillion of investment in solar energy solutions by 2030, tackling policy and market barriers in all solar market segments, reducing investment risk in developing and emerging economies, and spurring a new level of international collaboration to overcome global investment challenges at scale.

The Roadmap identifies both near-term actions and broader collaborative efforts to overcome barriers to scaling solar. Major barriers include a lack of enabling policies and regulations, a lack of bankable project pipelines, and risk management challenges.

To address these barriers, governments can act immediately in partnership with commercial and national banks and development finance institutions (DFIs) to adopt enabling policies and regulations that are conducive to replicating and scaling solar investment. In parallel, DFIs can lead the way in standardizing and scaling up the provision of blended finance, concessional credit lines, and other risk mitigation instruments to pave the way for private investment.

Alongside country-level actions, coordinated and ambitious action among international institutions is needed to deliver investment at scale. The Roadmap identifies a set of actions these institutions—including regional development banks, the International Solar Alliance, IRENA, Sustainable Energy for All (SEforAll), and the Clean Energy Ministerial—can take to accelerate the transition to solar energy to meet Paris climate goals, the Sustainable Development Goals, and net zero emission targets. These include:

  • Collaborate to set and track specific, time-bound solar targets.
  • Replicate and scale regional or global entities focused on risk mitigation.
  • Coordinate international efforts to promote good practices in energy sector regulation as they affect solar investment and deployment.
  • Establish an international platform to promote standardization in solar finance and support common systems for tracking progress, performance, and impact.
  • Demonstrate credible solar project pipelines.
  • Engage rating agencies to review or develop innovative rating tools for emerging market blended finance funds.
  • Support global scale-up of vendor finance.

The Roadmap was produced by World Resources Institute (WRI), International Solar Alliance (ISA) and Bloomberg Philanthropies, in collaboration with CONCITO, the Investment Fund for Developing Countries, and the World Climate Foundation.

Key Findings:

  • Scaling solar energy is a key element for delivering clean, affordable, and reliable energy access worldwide. Decentralized solar energy is uniquely suited to provide affordable energy access to hundreds of millions of people in developing countries.
  • Average annual investment in solar solutions needs to double from 2021 through 2030 if the world is to achieve the Paris climate goals and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Targeted action is needed to ensure that developing countries and emerging markets receive an equitable share of investment.
  • The International Energy Agency (IEA), Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), and others project that, to meet net zero emission goals, solar will need to grow to be the largest single global energy source by 2050.
  • Cost declines for solar energy and battery energy storage have made solar cost-competitive with fossil fuels and other renewable energy solutions, and many countries – particularly developing countries – have significant untapped solar energy potential.
  • Across all market segments, major barriers to scaling up solar include a lack of enabling policies and regulations, a lack of bankable project pipelines, and risk management challenges.
  • Governments can take action immediately, in partnership with commercial banks and development finance institutions, to address these barriers and to replicate and scale effective solutions.
  • Broader international collaboration is also needed to scale up available resources, manage risk at scale, speed up transactions and standardize good practices, support innovative business models, and develop systems to monitor commitments, track progress, and measure impacts of solar investment.
  • There is an urgent need to ensure that finance and investment are more equitably distributed. Developing the abundant solar resources in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Latin America and Caribbean region is particularly critical for improving energy access and security.

Executive Summary:

In the decisive years between now and 2030, solar energy will be essential to our ability to reach global development and climate goals. This roadmap provides guidance for rapidly and equitably scaling solar investment and deployment across the globe.

Highlights

  • Scaling solar energy can help deliver clean, affordable, and reliable energy access worldwide. 
  • Average annual investment in solar solutions needs to double from 2021 through 2030 if the world is to achieve the Paris climate goals and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Targeted action is needed to ensure that developing countries and emerging markets receive an equitable share of investment. 
  • Across all market segments, major barriers to scaling up solar include a lack of enabling policies and regulations, a lack of bankable project pipelines, and risk-management challenges. 
  • Governments can take action immediately, in partnership with commercial banks and development finance institutions, to address these barriers and to replicate and scale effective solutions.
  • Broader international collaboration is also needed to scale up available resources, manage risk at scale, speed up transactions and standardize good practices, support innovative business models, and develop systems to monitor commitments, track progress, and measure impacts of solar investment. 

Background

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points to solar energy as the mitigation option with the highest potential contribution to net greenhouse gas emission reduction. Falling costs for solar energy and battery energy storage have made solar cost-competitive with fossil fuels and other renewable energy solutions. Tapping into abundant solar resources in developing and emerging economies will improve energy access and security and can help achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (i.e., SDG-7 on affordable and clean energy and SDG-13 on curbing climate change).

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and BloombergNEF (BNEF) project that, to meet net zero emission goals, solar needs to become the largest single global energy source by 2050. To achieve this growth, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and BNEF estimate that average annual solar investment through 2030 needs to more than double.

Scaling up solar investment and deployment faces three primary barriers: the lack of conducive energy sector planning, enabling policies, and regulations; an inadequate pipeline of bankable projects with creditworthy off-takers; and risk-management challenges. These barriers affect countries to different degrees depending on their investment readiness and market conditions. 
This roadmap provides guidance that can accelerate and scale up solar deployment and reduce regional investment gaps by equitably mobilizing US$1 trillion of investment in solar energy solutions by 2030. It has been prepared by World Resources Institute (WRI) and the International Solar Alliance (ISA), in partnership with Bloomberg Philanthropies and in collaboration with CONCITO, the Investment Fund for Developing Countries, and the World Climate Foundation.
This roadmap builds on reports by IEA, IRENA, IPCC, and other clean energy and climate institutions, as well as consultations with more than 100 solar development and finance experts around the globe. It identifies and prioritizes ways to overcome barriers to scaling solar investment, particularly in developing countries and emerging economies. It focuses on solutions with the greatest potential to

  • catalyze private investment;
  • improve energy access and energy security; and
  • provide other socioeconomic benefits.

These solutions include actions that countries can pursue in four solar market segments: off-grid and decentralized solar, utility-scale and grid-connected solar, energy storage and grid flexibility infrastructure, and advanced solar and storage technologies. To address barriers that cannot be solved at the country level, this roadmap offers recommendations for new collaborative actions to be taken by international institutions, governments, and private sector actors.

Findings

Governments—often in collaboration with national development banks, commercial banks, and development finance institutions—can take solar investment to scale by setting deployment targets and helping to improve investment readiness, manage risk, and strengthen bankable project pipelines. They can create conditions that make investing in solar more attractive and profitable, particularly in developing and emerging economies.

Barriers that cannot be overcome at the country level require new types of collaboration among international institutions to enhance solar investment and deployment goals; coordinating and scaling risk-mitigation efforts; promoting good practices in sector regulation; standardizing systems for tracking progress, performance, and impact; demonstrating credible solar project pipelines; developing innovative rating tools for funds designed for emerging markets; and supporting the global scale-up of vendor finance.

 

Image credit: Derek Sutton