Indonesia is one of the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG). For the past two decades, GHG emissions have increased from almost all sectors, such as land-use (defined as land use, land-use change, and forestry including peat fires), energy, agriculture, industry, and waste. Currently, the land-use and energy sector contribute to 80 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in Indonesia. The national government of Indonesia has committed to reducing unconditionally GHG emissions by 29 percent against a 2030 business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and by up to 41 percent below the 2030 BAU level, subject to international assistance for finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.

This paper provides information for policy-makers, business leaders, and civil society organizations to understand mitigation options, assess opportunities, prioritize actions, and develop strategies for meeting Indonesia’s climate targets. As the first publicly available study that quantifies the emissions abatement potential of different mitigation policies in Indonesia, the study seeks to answering the following questions:

  • To what extent would existing mitigation policies and targets in Indonesia’s land-use and energy sectors contribute to the mitigation goals set in its NDC?
  • To what extent would strengthened policies and targets in the land-use and energy sectors contribute to the mitigation goals set in its NDC?

Key Findings

  • Existing policies in the land-use and energy sectors, even if fully implemented, will cut emissions by an estimated 547 MtCO2 against our Reference scenario, resulting in an emissions level of approximately 2,311 MtCO2 for the land-use and energy sectors alone, which is too high to meet the unconditional target of 2,037 MtCO2e (a 29 percent reduction over business as usual) set in Indonesia’s NDC.
  • Implementation of strengthened policies would reduce total emissions to approximately 1,733 MtCO2, thus surpassing the unconditional target of 29 percent. This highlights the importance of strengthening government efforts for achieving its climate action targets.
  • Indonesia’s forest moratorium is the single policy with the largest mitigation potential (Figure ES2). If the policy is renewed through 2030 in its current form, it could reduce emissions by approximately 188 MtCO2 by 2030. Expanding the forest moratorium to include additional secondary forest and forest areas under concession licenses could reduce emissions as much as 437 MtCO2 in 2030.
  • With the energy sector projected to dominate Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2026–27, promoting renewable energy source and energy conservation offers significant emissions abatement potential. Achieving a renewable energy mix target could reduce emissions from the Reference scenario by approximately 266 MtCO2 by 2030. Combined with an energy conservation policy, the potential emissions reduction could increase to approximately 544 MtCO2 by that year.
  • Early actions to promote clean and renewable energy and implement energy conservation measures will reduce the expense of achieving further emissions reductions in the long term. Delaying these actions could lead to infrastructure developments that lock in emissions-intensive pathways that may be expensive or impossible to change in time to limit warming.