Credibility of Nationally Determined Contributions: The Role of Transparency and Progress Reporting
This expert notes explores the components of credible national climate plans, known as NDCs, and examines how information from the Paris Agreement’s biennial transparency reports (BTRs) can inform assessments of an NDC’s credibility.
In 2025, Parties to the Paris Agreement are due to submit new and enhanced nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outlining their efforts to respond to the climate crisis. With progress on climate action urgently needed, it is important for mitigation targets in NDCs to be credible. There are a number of factors determining how credible an NDC is: clear targets, capacity and institutional arrangements for implementation, having policies in place to achieve the NDC target, and ensuring policies deliver the anticipated emission reductions.
This note seeks to examine how reporting under the Paris Agreement informs the credibility of NDCs. Focusing on the mitigation components of NDCs, this note identifies several components of credibility. It then explores how biennial transparency reports (BTRs), a central feature of the Paris Agreement’s enhanced transparency framework (ETF), provide essential information shaping the credibility of NDCs. Finally, the note elaborates on how information reported in BTRs can impact the credibility of future NDCs.
