Iran War Could Worsen Middle East’s Water Woes

Iran was already on the edge of a water crisis when the conflict began Feb. 28, 2026.

After five consecutive years of drought and years of unsustainable water use, Iran is moving toward what experts call “water bankruptcy.” Just last year, the capital, Tehran, came close to running out of water. Farmers took to the streets to protest water shortages and alleged mismanagement.

Liz Saccoccia, Water Security Associate

Conflict like the current war in Iran can worsen these water challenges — not only nationally but across the region. Research shows that conflict can amplify existing risks associated with water scarcity and transform them into larger security emergencies threatening food security, energy and health. WRI water expert and WRI-lead for the Water, Peace and Security Partnership (WPS) Liz Saccoccia explains Iran’s long-running water crisis, how conflict and water crises can reinforce each other, and what it means for the millions of people caught in between.

Why is Iran so water-stressed, and what’s driving it?

The Middle East is the most water-stressed region on the planet. About 83% of its population is exposed to extremely high water stress — a figure expected to reach 100% by 2050. Iran sits at the sharp end of this trend.

WRI’s Aqueduct data shows that Iran’s baseline water stress score, which measures the ratio of total water demand to available renewable supply, falls in the “extremely high” category. This means the country uses over 80% of its renewable water resources in an average year — and even more in a drier-than-normal year.

What makes Iran’s situation especially precarious is that supply and demand are moving in opposite directions. Water supply is expected to fall from around 670 billion cubic meters in 2019 to roughly 540 billion cubic meters by 2080, a decline driven by decreasing rainfall and climate change. At the same time, demand is expected to increase by 30% by 2050, largely due to growing household demand as the population grows. Tehran, home to about 10 million people with high per capita water use, already struggles with this growing tension. In 2025, when Iran’s rainfall was 40% lower than the long-term average, reservoirs supplying the capital fell to about 12% of their capacity.

There are two main causes of Iran’s extreme water stress: a naturally arid climate with limited water supply and years of unsustainable water management. After the 1979 revolution, and reinforced by economic sanctions, Iran adopted a food self-sufficiency policy that drastically increased irrigation, which today accounts for about 90% of the country’s  water use. Iran also abandoned traditional water management practices, in particular the qanat system — a gravity-fed network of underground channels that sustainably draws on groundwater — in favor of increasing diesel-powered, deep tube wells. This transition has caused saltwater intrusion into groundwater, compromising already limited reserves, as well as land subsidence that threatens groundwater restoration and higher pumping costs. In addition, widespread dam building has increased evaporation, reducing freshwater supplies. In Tehran, so much water has been pumped from aquifers that parts of the city are sinking by more than 10 inches a year. 

How could the war worsen these water challenges?

Conflict can certainly exacerbate water challenges. Research shows that across the world, infrastructure like desalination plants, dams, treatment facilities and pipes are increasingly targeted during warfare. Reports already suggest that military operations over the last few weeks have damaged desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain. In already water-stressed regions like the Middle East, damaged infrastructure can push vulnerable water supplies from bad to worse. 

Water crises can also contribute to a country’s overall instability by compounding other pressures, such as food insecurity, unemployment, weak governance and displacement. Water scarcity has already decreased food production, driven farmers off their land and displaced about 16 million people according to 2018 figures, and caused power outages through reduced hydropower capacity.

Iranians have been protesting for years about water challenges. Farmer protests last year were met with violent crackdowns. Wider anti-government protests in January 2026 — which were partly linked to food price spikes driven, in part, by water scarcity — were among the Trump administration’s justifications for the recent military intervention. The ongoing conflict, and related infrastructure damage, are unlikely to help address the Iranian people’s current water challenges.

Beyond Iran, can you tell me more about the water-conflict relationship?

Water-related conflict is increasing, according to the Pacific Institute's Water Conflict Chronology. Its latest update found 844 new instances of violent conflicts associated with water resources and systems in 2024 — a 20% increase over 2023.

Water can be a trigger for conflict. We saw this in Syria, where prolonged drought and groundwater depletion contributed to rural collapse and mass migration to cities, contributing to conditions that preceded civil war. It can be a casualty — like the most recent destruction of desalination plants in the Middle East. And it can be a weapon. In 2023, a Ukrainian dam was reportedly targeted by Russian forces, killing people and livestock and releasing toxic contaminants. 

And in some cases, these three roles can combine to create a vicious cycle — where water scarcity drives instability and violence, instability destroys water systems, and destroyed systems deepen water scarcity.

Is it possible to address Iran's water crisis amid conflict?

Once war grips a region, progress on food security, infrastructure and economic growth often suffers. The ongoing conflict makes even basic interventions, let alone rebuilding or upgrading infrastructure, nearly impossible. In the near term, the water crisis will likely get worse before it gets better.  

When the opportunity arises, where should Iran go from here?

Longer-term solutions like desalination plants are essential to help strengthen water security, but they address symptoms, not the cause. An entire overhaul toward sustainable and equitable water access is needed. This means rethinking how water is managed from the ground up — including engaging with local stakeholders, recycling wastewater, reducing water losses by fixing leaky pipes and other infrastructure, and cutting back water demand by importing the most water-intensive crops.

What’s clear from WPS’s research across conflict-affected water systems is that inclusive, sustainable management underpins stability.