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How the EU Deforestation Policy Could Reduce Forest Loss Around the World
A new analysis shows where the EU’s demand for just seven commodities is driving forest loss — and how the EU Deforestation Regulation can help address it.
The world’s tropical forests are under pressure from deforestation, with agriculture a major driver of forest loss. Demand for commodities drives much of this expansion — and the EU is a major source of that demand.
Since 2014, the EU has been the second-largest importer of goods linked to tropical deforestation after China. In 2017 alone, it accounted for 16% of global deforestation tied to international trade, the equivalent of 203,000 hectares of forests or twice the size of New York City.
But the EU’s deforestation footprint is not spread evenly across the hundreds of agricultural commodities it imports.
New research found that just six — beef, palm oil, soy, cocoa, coffee and rubber — accounted for 85% of estimated forest loss linked to EU imports. And this footprint is highly concentrated geographically: Nearly 74% of deforestation linked to the EU’s demand for seven commodities (the six above plus timber) occurs in just six countries.
Where the EU's Deforestation Footprint Lies
The EUDR covers the seven commodities most closely linked to the EU’s deforestation exposure: cattle, oil palm, soy, cocoa, coffee, rubber and timber, as well as products made from them. The regulation requires companies to demonstrate that any covered commodities sold in or exported from the EU market were not produced on land that was deforested nor did they contribute to forest degradation after Dec. 31, 2020. The regulation will apply from Dec. 30, 2026 for large companies and June 30, 2027 for smaller ones.
To understand where the EU’s deforestation exposure is concentrated — and where EUDR implementation could have the greatest reach — WRI analyzed Trase data on EU-linked commodity supply chains. The analysis incorporates WRI’s Tree Cover Loss data alongside information on crops, land uses and dominant deforestation drivers. It identifies the six countries with the greatest deforestation exposure linked to EU demand and examines the commodities driving that exposure.
About the analysis
Trase’s broader analysis looked at the EU’s links to deforestation through imports of more than 150 agricultural commodities. We focused on the seven commodities covered by the EUDR to understand where the regulation could address the largest share of the EU’s deforestation exposure.
The analysis uses a broader definition of deforestation than the EUDR does in some cases. For example, it considers certain forestry activities, including the conversion of natural forests into forest plantations, as deforestation. Timber production is treated slightly differently under EUDR. These distinctions are important when interpreting the findings.
Where is the EU’s deforestation exposure concentrated? The map below shows the six countries with the strongest links to EU demand for EUDR-covered commodities — and the commodities driving forest loss in each. All seven commodities drive forest loss in these countries, but five — cocoa, oil palm, coffee, cattle and soy — are the most significant.
The Role of Market Pressure, Voluntary Commitments and Policy
Thanks to market pressure, voluntary commitments and preparation for the EUDR, deforestation linked to EU consumption has already seen a decline. It reduced from 260,000 hectares in 2016 to 92,000 in 2023.
Some companies have already put traceability mechanisms aligned with the EUDR’s requirements in place. Among the 500 companies assessed, 14% of the assessed companies (68 companies) publicly cite the EUDR as the reason behind establishing traceability, conducting risk assessments and publishing deforestation commitments.
However, one-third of the 500 companies have no zero-deforestation or conversion commitments for any commodity at all. These are among the most exposed companies in the most relevant supply chains, suggesting that voluntary market pressure has not reached them. The EUDR will play a key role in closing that gap.
Related
Regulations Enable Change
The EUDR is a promising solution to reducing a significant portion of the EU’s deforestation exposure. Other policies have already proven to be successful and show how policies and enforcement are central to reducing forest loss.
In Brazil, for example, the relaunch of PPCDAm, a government’s anti-deforestation policy framework, alongside stronger law enforcement, helped reduce tropical forest loss since 2023. Non-fire primary forest loss dropped to 570,000 hectares in 2025, some of the country’s lowest to-date.
Other examples show that commodity production and forest conservation don’t have to be at odds. Indonesia and Malaysia have also seen primary forest loss fall substantially from their early 2010s peaks, even as oil palm production continues to grow. Government moratoriums on new permits, stronger palm oil certification standards and voluntary corporate no-deforestation commitments are key factors in this fall.
Indonesia experienced 282,900 hectares of non-fire related primary forest loss in 2025, a slight uptick from 2024, but down from a staggering high of 794,350 hectares in 2012. Between 2020 and 2025, Malaysia non-fire primary forest loss averaged 70,000 hectares per year, roughly 3 times less than the country’s peak loss (239,065 hectares) in 2012.
Building Deforestation-Free Supply Chains
Conditions in producer countries can change, and markets in importer countries will keep evolving.
Experience from producer countries shows that regulation, enforcement and market pressure, aimed at the right supply chains, can help bend forest-loss trends. Instruments such as the EUDR can play a central role in addressing deforestation related to its own consumption. And with 11 football fields of tropical primary forest lost every minute in 2025, the need for action is more important than ever.