In the context of the international Paris Agreement on climate change, a long-term strategy is a formal document a country uses to communicate its plans for long-term low-emissions development.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strongly underscore the difference that this half-degree can make: Temperature rise above 1.5 degrees C will result in increased risk of irreversible biodiversity loss and food insecurity, extreme drought, fires, heat, floods, sea level rise and more.

To have a likely chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C, the world’s top climate scientists agree that global carbon dioxide emissions must reach "net zero" by 2050, with all other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reaching this benchmark thereafter.

Long-term strategies (also called “long-term low GHG emissions development strategies,” “LTS” or “LT-LEDs“) are central to achieving net-zero emissions, limiting warming and preventing some of the worst impacts of climate change. Countries can use these strategies to set out long-term goals for climate and development and direct the short-term decision-making that is needed to achieve net-zero emissions and climate-resilient economies.

Why Are Long-term Strategies Important? 

When countries communicate long-term strategies, they express a commitment to achieve ambitious climate targets in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal of 1.5 degrees C. These strategies are crucial to driving stronger climate action because they establish a guiding vision to direct near-term policy and planning.

At a national level, long-term strategies offer many benefits. Alongside establishing emissions-reduction targets, they can guide countries to avoid costly investments in high-emissions technologies, support just and equitable low-carbon transitions, promote technological innovation, and help countries plan for new sustainable infrastructure in light of future climate risks. For the private sector, long-term strategies can send early and predictable signals to investors about envisaged long-term societal changes.  

Long-term strategies also provide a vital link between countries’ shorter-term national climate plans, known as “NDCs,” which operate in five-year cycles, and their longer-term climate goals.

Read more: Climate Action for Today and Tomorrow: The Relationship between NDCs and LTSs

Why Is 2024 a Critical Moment for Updating Long-term Strategies?

The need for stronger climate action is plain to see: Global temperatures continue to rise, with 2023 ranked the hottest year on record and 2024 set to surpass it. Climate change is causing unpredictable weather patterns, water shortages and wildfires. And the first-ever Global Stocktake in 2023 revealed that countries’ current climate commitments fall far short of what’s needed to address the crisis. If existing NDCs are fully implemented, the world could still see a catastrophic 2.54-2.96 degrees C (4.57 – 5.33 degrees F) of warming this century. 

With countries’ long-term strategies due in November 2024 and their short-term climate commitments (NDCs) due in 2025, the world is at a critical juncture to correct course. By clearly communicating their plans to achieve net-zero emissions by midcentury, countries can unlock and drive more ambitious national climate action through their updated NDCs in the next decade.

Countries were first invited to communicate long-term strategies to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change under the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015. Recently, there have been further calls for submission — most notably in the 2021 Glasgow Pact and the UAE Consensus from COP28, which drew on the findings of the first-ever Global Stocktake.

The UAE Consensus highlighted the urgent need to address ambition, implementation and finance gaps in the context of preparing long-term strategies, pressing countries to update existing long-term strategies frequently. It also underscored the importance of syncing NDCs with long-term strategies to ensure that near-term actions are sufficient to achieve ambitious emissions reductions by midcentury. Both strategies should be aligned and demonstrate a clear and equitable pathway toward net-zero emissions. 

WRI’s Climate Watch platform tracks and analyses NDC and long-term strategy submissions.

What Are the Key Elements of Long-Term Strategies? 

The scope and depth of long-term strategies are determined by countries. Indeed, there is no one-size-fits-all format or structure. However, some common elements that have emerged across the strategies submitted to-date include:

  • A long-term vision.
  • Sustainable development considerations.
  • Mitigation elements (including a long-term quantified outcome for GHG emissions reductions and results of mitigation models and scenarios).
  • Adaptation elements.
  • Sectoral strategies (including policies and actions, milestones to be achieved over time, information on managing the transition to the long-term goals, among others).
  • Implementation approaches.
  • Monitoring plans and revision processes.

When these elements are considered together, countries can evaluate tradeoffs among them and ensure that all are supported in the long-term strategy.

Read More: Insights on the First 29 Long-term Climate Strategies Submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

What Are Important Considerations for Developing a Long-Term Strategy?

The concept of long-term planning for climate change and development raises unique governance challenges. Ensuring buy-in and ownership of key ministries, departments, agencies and non-governmental stakeholders over the final strategy is essential if long-term strategies are to be influential in guiding planning and investment decisions across society to initiate an effective and just transition to a low GHG emission and resilient future. This will require:

  • Political leadership: Clear high-level mandates and vision can foster greater coordination within and across ministries. Political leadership at the highest level can help drive the strategy, build momentum and ensure that the right stakeholders and ministries are involved.
  • Institutional arrangements: The process of developing and implementing long-term strategies requires the engagement of central ministries, multiple sectoral line ministries, sub-national government, civil society and, in many countries, indigenous self-governing bodies. In many cases, this will require the creation or reconsideration of existing institutional arrangements for long-term planning.
  • Legal frameworks: Supportive legal frameworks ensure strong coherence across government strategies, build political durability of long-term targets and help to avoid expensive and conflicting policies.
  • Stakeholder engagement: Stakeholders can help planners and decision-makers by providing information and preferences that can build a shared vision and may become important constituencies in the implementation of the long-term strategy.

Countries designing long-term strategies should also build upon existing plans and policies where applicable. This will require a consideration of how well established existing long-term planning and targets are (for example, any long-term economic planning processes that might already exist in a country), whether there’s already consideration of climate change mitigation and adaptation, and whether the targets are in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Read More: A Brief Guide For Reviewing Countries’ Long-term Strategies

 

Cover image by Dennis Schroeder / NREL