Indonesia Poised to Harness Ocean’s Climate Potential

The ocean could be one of our most powerful allies in fighting climate change, if we do a better job of protecting and leveraging it.

In few places is this truer than Indonesia.

Indonesia is the world's biggest archipelagic nation, comprising upwards of 17,000 islands and 108,000 kilometers of coastline. It houses more than one-fifth of all mangroves and 5% of seagrass meadows on the planet — ecosystems that are critical to storing carbon and buffering against climate change impacts. The country also relies heavily on the ocean for transportation, tourism, food and myriad other necessities.

Targeted action in these areas — from restoring coastal ecosystems to electrifying marine transport — could help tackle planet-warming emissions while also uplifting Indonesia's economy and allowing nature to flourish. We're seeing glimmers of progress already: Like many countries, Indonesia's new climate plan attempts to put a stronger emphasis on the ocean than previous commitments.

However, these plans still aren't nearly as ambitious as they could be. And they overlook some of the most impactful areas for action. Without remedying these gaps, Indonesia could miss major opportunities for tackling climate change — and the chance to emerge as a global ocean leader.

Indonesia's Outsized Ocean Potential

Ocean-based climate action can take many forms, from conserving mangrove forests to harvesting energy from the tide.

Three ocean-based sectors in Indonesia offer the biggest potential to reduce emissions and help limit global warming, according to Climateworks Centre:

Protecting and restoring coastal ecosystems

"Blue carbon" ecosystems, such as mangroves, seagrass meadows and tidal marshes, have become an important part of climate mitigation in the past decade. This is mainly because they can store large amounts of carbon in their biomass and soil — up to 5 times more than tropical forests over an equal area — for long periods. However, these ecosystems are rapidly succumbing to climate change, pollution, shoreline development and other threats, and few are protected.

By preventing mangrove deforestation and degradation, and by expanding restoration and reforestation, Indonesia could eliminate 32-41 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) annually by 2030. That's roughly equal to cutting out emissions from 10 million cars per year. Including seagrasses in these measures could reduce an additional 17-60 MtCO2e per year by 2030.

Maritime industry and infrastructure

Maritime transport is crucial for Indonesia, an archipelago of thousands of inhabited islands located along major global trade routes. The Strait of Malacca, which runs about 900 kilometers along northern Sumatra, is one of the world's busiest and most emissions-intensive shipping routes. It also contributes significantly to air pollution in Indonesia, where many cities already grapple with unhealthy air quality.

Yet this strategic position gives Indonesia a unique opportunity to lead the transition toward low-emissions international shipping. Electrification and shifting to renewable energy in domestic marine transport could reduce emissions by 2.1-2.8 MtCO2e per year by 2030, while international shipping and port activities could cut an additional 10.3-13.9 MtCO2e.

Offshore renewable energy

Indonesia's population has grown rapidly over the past 30 years, driving more than a 230% increase in energy demand. And demand is expected to keep rising by almost 5% per year through 2030. To meet this need and support its clean energy transition, Indonesia has committed to expanding renewable energy by 19%-21% by 2030.

Offshore resources (including wind, wave, tidal and ocean thermal energy) can help meet Indonesia's renewable energy goal, providing the same low-emissions and clean air benefits as onshore renewables while avoiding land-use constraints. By 2030, wave, tidal, offshore wind and ocean thermal energy could cut Indonesia's emissions by 0.83 MtCO2e per year, with even greater potential by 2050.

According to Climateworks Centre's analysis¹, ocean-based action could deliver nearly half (49%) of additional emissions cuts needed in Indonesia by 2050 to align with holding warming to 1.5 degrees C. By comparison, ocean-based solutions could deliver 35% of the emissions reductions needed globally over that period — showing the outsized role that the ocean can play in Indonesia's climate trajectory.

It's Not Just About the Climate

Fighting climate change isn't the only reason to invest in ocean solutions.

Efforts across the broader "blue ecosystem" can also help Indonesia build resilience to extreme weather. About 1,800 kilometers of the country's coastline is considered highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, with potential economic losses in the marine and coastal sector estimated at 81.82 trillion Indonesian rupiah ($5.16 billion) in 2024. Ecosystems like mangroves help to stabilize shorelines and dampen wave energy, buffering against storm surges, preventing erosion and shielding coastal communities from damage.

At the same time, a healthy ocean is essential to local economies and wellbeing, particularly in island nations like Indonesia. Protecting marine ecosystems can support coastal livelihoods, strengthen food security and bolster local industries. One study shows that fish catches near mangroves can be up to 70% higher than in areas without them. Mangroves and seagrass also create opportunities for eco-tourism, providing direct economic benefits for local communities.

Ocean action can also fight poverty and inequality. For example, the SECURE (Shrimp-Carbon Aquaculture) project in East Kalimantan involves women's groups in restoring 50%-80% of the area's shrimp and milkfish ponds back to their original state as mangroves. In addition to boosting coastal resilience, the effort increases income and enhances women's roles in supporting their families. A socio-economic survey recorded a 12% income rise for aquaculture farmers and an average 40% increase for women's groups compared to the baseline.

Current Policies Fall Well Short of This Potential

Indonesia's government has formally recognized the importance of ocean-based climate actions for years, both within its national climate commitments (known as a nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) and in its long-term strategy — the name for country plans that are meant to drive low-carbon and climate-resilient development through 2050.

But real-world progress is lagging.

To date, the ocean components of these plans have focused almost exclusively on mangrove restoration. Indonesia's last NDC (from 2022) committed to restore 600,000 hectares of mangroves by 2024. However, the country had only restored about 84,400 hectares (14% of the target) by the end of last year. The government terminated the Peat and Mangrove Restoration Agency, which was tasked with accelerating mangrove restoration in nine priority provinces, in early 2025. Indonesia has also faced financial and technical difficulties; the cost of mangrove restoration is often much higher than other land-based restoration.

Efforts to protect and restore seagrass meadows are even further behind. Indonesia is still working to develop carbon measurement protocols for seagrass. Alongside a new national seagrass map launched in December 2025, this will serve as the baseline data for improving ecosystem management and measuring changes in emissions.

Indonesia's government is leveraging policy to help grow finance for ocean-based action, including the Roadmap for Mitigation Actions in the Marine and Fisheries Sector and the Procedures for Implementing the Economic Value of Carbon in the Marine Sector. These regulations are a first step toward developing carbon pricing mechanisms for the ocean sector, such as carbon trading and results-based payments, that will support involvement in both domestic and international carbon markets. These mechanisms are expected to be implemented by governments as businesses as well as local communities, and could help mobilize financing toward achieving Indonesia's national climate goals.

Yet major gaps remain — and Indonesia's newest national climate plan, released in October 2025, does little to close them. The new NDC acknowledges the need to protect and sustainably use coastal ecosystems like mangroves, but does not lay out explicit targets or activities to support this. Nor does it establish an absolute emissions-reduction target for the ocean sector. And the potential contributions from activities beyond blue carbon ecosystems, such as marine transport or offshore renewable energy, have not been fully explored or quantified.

In addition, efforts to protect and manage mangroves remain categorized within the Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) sector only. This makes it difficult to coordinate ecosystem management and monitoring with other ministries, such as the Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Marine and Fisheries Affairs, further hampering progress.

How Can Indonesia Step Up Its Efforts?

Indonesia's new climate commitment recognizes the value the ocean can bring for people, nature and the climate. And the country is taking steps in the right direction. But much more is possible — and needed.

The question now is how Indonesia can translate the immense promise of ocean-based climate solutions into real, rapid change.

• Improve regulation and planning: The updated version of Indonesia's Second NDC (expected around 2027/2028) should establish a clear definition and scope for marine-based sectors, including what is meant by blue carbon and related ecosystems. It should also develop and adopt robust, science-based methodologies for measuring GHG emissions and reductions from mangroves, seagrasses and other blue carbon ecosystems, and ensure alignment with IPCC Wetlands guidance. In addition, Indonesia needs to enhance its mangrove GHG inventory methods by integrating belowground biomass and accelerate national seagrass mapping, as well as the development of country-specific carbon measurement approaches.

   

• Strengthen governance and coordination: Indonesia needs to strengthen integrated governance for the ocean sector to support its national climate commitments, ensuring that monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) processes are well coordinated across relevant ministries and institutions. It should also clearly define and harmonize the mandates of the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, the Ministry of Forestry, the Ministry of Environment, and regional authorities to prevent overlap and streamline blue carbon ecosystem management. In addition, Indonesia should establish a legal framework that formally requires line ministries to contribute to NDC preparation, implementation and reporting.

   

• Gather more robust data: Indonesia needs more robust data and methodologies to better understand how sectors like blue carbon, maritime industry and offshore renewable energy can contribute to climate goals, and to assess how impactful its actions are. The country should work on building technical capacity at national and local levels to support the development, refinement and application of emerging GHG calculation and MRV methodologies, particularly for seagrass carbon accounting. In addition, Indonesia must enhance data integration across agencies involved in ocean-based climate actions, ensuring that information is not fragmented or stored in silos. Harmonized datasets will enable consistent MRV and support reporting requirements under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

   

• Shift financial flows to support ocean action: Indonesia needs to provide clear guidance — through new regulations, technical standards or approved financial instruments — to help unlock diverse financing sources, including carbon markets, for ocean-climate initiatives. It should also invest in capacity-building programs to ensure local and national actors can meet the technical requirements of carbon accounting and verification. Finally, Indonesia must mobilize both public and private finance by improving regulatory certainty and demonstrating credible, quantifiable emissions-reduction potentials, enabling ocean-climate actions to be scaled up more effectively.

Integrating ocean-based activities into climate commitments is not only about policy design, but also the ability to unlock finance, build local capacity, and deliver real and tangible climate benefits.

^{1 Climateworks Centre evaluated how ocean-based mitigation could increase emissions reductions and help close the gap between two pathways in Indonesia's long-term strategy: the Transition Scenario (which bridges the NDC's unconditional pathway toward a Paris Agreement-aligned pathway/LCCP) at 1,526 MtCO2e by 2050, and the more ambitious LCCP scenario at 540 MtCO2e by 2050.}