What’s at Stake at the Next UN Climate Summit (COP31)? Experts Weigh In

As we head toward the 2026 UN climate summit (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, next month, the link between climate action, countries' economic security and people's livelihoods and health couldn't be clearer.

The war on Iran has driven up oil and gas prices worldwide, increasing fuel and food costs while underscoring the risks of fossil fuel-driven economies. Meanwhile, the world recently experienced its hottest month on record. Heat waves, floods and wildfires have claimed tens of thousands of lives, from Europe to Nepal. And a Super El Niño could make matters worse, potentially pushing 50 million more people into acute hunger by next year.

Unlike some past COPs, this year’s summit isn’t expected to be defined by a landmark negotiated outcome. The focus will be more on overcoming practical barriers and accelerating action, and on whether countries can back the pledges they’ve already made with the policies, finance and cooperation to deliver them.

WRI experts have laid out three key areas where negotiators and other decision-makers at COP31 can set the world on a safer, more prosperous path:

1. Accelerate the energy transition by backing the COP Presidency's goal of meeting 35% of energy needs with electricity by 2035, making finance for clean power more affordable for lower- and middle-income countries and planning for a just transition away from fossil fuels.
2. Step up adaptation and resilience by taking concrete steps to deliver on the goal to triple adaptation finance by 2035, making adaptation finance and all other types of climate finance more accessible for vulnerable countries, and working with companies, insurers and banks to encourage investments in more resilient economies and societies.
3. Recognize the ocean’s critical role in fighting climate change by translating ocean commitments in national climate plans into real policies and investment, working toward sustainable management of all national waters, and making ocean-climate finance more accessible, especially for small island and coastal states.

What must COP31 achieve in these areas to be considered a success? Our experts share what they're looking for:

Turning Momentum into Practical Climate Action

Ani Dasgupta, WRI President and CEO

If this year has shown us anything, it's just how connected the systems we rely on are. When energy supplies come under pressure or extreme weather threatens the places we live and work, the effects ripple across our economies and into everyday lives.  

Climate diplomacy is changing in response. When I talk to leaders around the world, I hear a real appetite for cooperation and practical solutions. More countries are joining forces outside formal negotiations, in smaller groups built around shared interests. These "coalitions of the doers" can move faster and make real progress. At a time of conflict, trade tensions and pressure on multilateralism, it matters deeply that nearly every country is coming together to roll up their sleeves to tackle challenges that affect us all. But these efforts cannot replace a global forum. COPs are essential because every country, especially small and vulnerable nations, has a voice. There’s no other forum in the world like it, where countries can set a common direction, raise ambition and track progress through a shared framework.

I’ll be watching less for big, negotiated outcomes and more for signs of tangible action on the ground. Are countries supporting concrete plans for clean power, better grids and greater energy efficiency, while transitioning away from fossil fuels? Are they using scarce public finance far more effectively to unlock private investment, especially for adaptation and for emerging economies? And with Australia and the Pacific Islands so closely involved in this year's COP, will we see the ocean given much greater prominence in climate action?

COP31 shouldn't be judged by new pledges alone, but by what countries agree to do differently, and whether people can actually see and feel that difference. The transition is already underway. COP31 needs to speed it up.

Making Finance Work for Adaptation, Resilience and a Just Transition

Melanie Robinson, Global Climate, Economics and Finance Director, WRI

Developing countries will press hard this year for international public finance. They're concerned that declining aid and disputes over climate finance could put at risk the $300 billion a year committed at COP29 in Baku. We need all types of finance, but concessional finance (below-market-rate money, such as cheap loans or grants) remains essential, especially for adaptation and resilience in the poorest and most vulnerable countries.

For small island states and the least developed countries, access to finance is almost as important as the amount. The Access to Finance statement launched at the pre-COP in October calls for cutting the bureaucracy of climate funds and development banks, targeting concessional finance to those who need it most, and addressing systemic barriers to private investment.  

On adaptation, governments committed to triple adaptation finance by 2035 at COP30. Now negotiators need to make enough progress to finalize the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) at COP32. Common metrics for resilience provide a basis for the financial sector to reward countries and companies that invest in resilience, rather than punish them for their vulnerability.  

Last year, the Baku to Belém Roadmap to $1.3 Trillion underlined the central role that private investment needs to play in the transition, and how public policy and de-risking instruments can help unlock this finance at scale, especially in developing countries. In Antalya, the COP29 and COP30 presidencies will provide greater detail, and set up an accompanying monitoring system. Outside the negotiations, expect growing attention on “country platforms,” country-led mechanisms that unlock public and private finance behind national priorities.

Finally, a transition will only last if people are involved in decisions that affect their lives, and share its benefits, from more affordable, secure energy and food to cleaner, more livable cities. Negotiators could decide to develop a just transition technical support hub, which could provide a way for countries and experts to share lessons and tools on what works. Outside the negotiations, expect a strong focus on jobs and skills. Research by WRI and partners estimates the climate transition could create 375 million new jobs over the next decade, but only if governments and businesses invest in the workforce it requires.

Ensuring Clean Electrification Is Affordable, Reliable and Accessible 

Dr. Nick Wayth CEng FEI, Global Director, WRI Polsky Center for the Global Energy Transition

People need energy that is affordable, reliable and secure. Electrification can help provide all three, and drives overall efficiency in the energy system. That starts with countries at COP31 signing the Presidency's pledge to meet 35% of final energy use with electricity by 2035, up from 23% today, and publishing the roadmaps to get there.

The full benefits of electrification come when it's supplied by clean power, but clean power should not be a prerequisite to increasing electrification. Each country is at a different starting point and will have a different pace of transitioning to clean energy. The pledge and subsequent action can still provide a much-needed focal point and be a stepping stone on this journey.  

These roadmaps need to tackle both supply and demand, including building clean power, grids and storage faster while encouraging the shift to electric transport, heating and industry. Countries should also identify priority grid and investment pipelines and the reforms needed to unlock them. That includes tariffs that reward consumers and businesses for shifting electricity use away from peak times, getting more from the systems already in place.

But none of this happens without addressing the rising cost of capital. High financing costs are holding back investments in stronger grids, clean power and energy efficiency, especially in low- and middle-income countries. In 2024, emerging and developing economies received only 15% of global clean energy investment. To meet global climate goals, that investment must triple to $2.2-2.8 trillion a year by the early 2030s.

Finally, more countries should plan for a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels, setting a target date where possible. Lasting energy security means reducing dependence on internationally traded fossil fuels. Each country's path will be different. Fossil fuel-dependent developing countries will need more finance, fiscal space and time, along with support for affected workers and communities. COP31 is a chance to speed the shift to cleaner, more resilient energy systems, rather than make short-term decisions that lock in harmful long-term consequences.

Putting the Ocean at the Heart of Climate Action 

Tom Pickerell, Global Director, Ocean Program

The ocean absorbs more than 90% of the excess heat caused by climate change. This comes at an enormous cost, including record ocean temperatures and stronger marine heat waves. Excess CO2 emissions are creating more acidic waters that threaten corals and marine food webs.

But the ocean is not just a victim of climate change. It is also one of our greatest allies. Ocean-based solutions could deliver up to 35% of the emissions cuts needed by 2050 to keep 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) within reach, while protecting coastal communities and creating jobs. The good news is that countries are beginning to recognize the ocean’s importance. WRI analysis found that 92% of coastal and island countries include ocean solutions in their climate plans, yet only 12% of those actions target the biggest opportunities, such as offshore renewable energy and transitioning away from offshore oil and gas.

While ambition is higher than ever, research tells us that many ocean sectors still lack the governance, data and capacity required to develop investable projects. So, implementation is a major challenge.  

Anticipation for a “blue COP” in Türkiye is high. The ocean is a priority in COP31’s Action Agenda, and at the Pre-COP in Fiji, Pacific leaders have called for a stronger role for ocean solutions. As Fiji’s Minister Filimoni Vosarogo said at the Pre-COP, “if you were designing the climate architecture from scratch today, would you leave out the planet’s largest sink of excess heat? And its largest active reservoir of carbon?” However, the risk is that the ocean remains a theme rather than a concrete outcome.

In Antalya, we want to see progress in three areas. First, the ocean must be integrated into formal COP processes and reflected in decisions on emissions, adaptation and finance rather than left to voluntary initiatives alone. Second, COP31 must address the barriers for countries to turn the ocean commitments in their national climate plans into action. And third, a COP31 political declaration or similar outcome should set clear ocean priorities, connecting climate plans with finance and technical assistance; invite time-bound contributions; and call for transparent reporting.

Success at COP31 means moving beyond simply recognizing the ocean's role in climate action to focusing on how growing political support can be turned into meaningful outcomes.

Follow Along

WRI experts are tracking these issues closely in the lead-up to COP and will be on the ground in Antalya during the summit from Nov. 9-20. To learn more about the issues at stake, explore related articles and research, and stay on top of the outcomes, visit WRI's COP31 resource hub.