Despite Some Progress, Countries’ New Climate Plans Largely Fall Short

2025 is a pivotal moment for climate action. Countries are submitting new national climate commitments, known as "nationally determined contributions" or "NDCs," that will shape the trajectory of global climate progress through 2035.

These new commitments show how boldly countries plan to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; transform their economies; and strengthen resilience to growing threats, like extreme weather, wildfires and floods. Together, they will determine how far the world goes toward limiting global temperature rise and avoiding the worst climate impacts.

Over 100 countries, representing more than 70% of global emissions, have already put forward new NDCs. The rest are expected during the UN climate summit (COP30) in November. These submissions represent an improvement from previous commitments, and many smaller and developing nations are leading the way with stronger targets. Yet collective ambition still falls short of what's needed to keep the world within critical warming thresholds, according to our own analysis and a recent report from the UN.

We analyzed the submissions thus far for a snapshot of how countries' climate plans are shaping up and what they reveal about the road ahead.

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How Many Countries Have Submitted New NDCs?

Under the Paris Agreement, 2025 NDCs were technically due in February. As of Nov. 9, 108 countries (including the EU and its 27 member states), covering 71% of the world's emissions, had submitted them.

Among the G20 — the world's largest GHG emitters — twelve had put forth new NDCs: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Türkiye, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States. (The U.S. has since announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, effective January 2026, though its NDC remains officially listed with the UNFCCC.) Many smaller and developing countries have also stepped forward.

The remaining countries are expected to present their new NDCs during the UN Climate Conference (COP30) in November.

How Much Have New NDCs Reduced the Emissions Gap?

Compared to previous 2030 targets, the NDCs submitted so far have made a modest dent in the 2035 emissions gap: the difference between where emissions need to be to align with 1.5 degrees C and where they're expected to be under countries' climate plans.

If fully implemented, new "unconditional NDCs" (those that don't require international support) are projected to reduce emissions by an additional 3.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2035 compared to 2030. This leaves an emissions gap of 28 GtCO2e to hold warming to 1.5 degrees C. When "conditional NDCs" (those that do require international support) are included, the projected emissions reductions rise to 3.8 GtCO2e, leaving a gap of 24.4 GtCO2e.

In other words, the NDCs submitted so far achieve less than 14% of the additional emissions reductions needed by 2035 to close the gap to 1.5 degrees C.

How Much Warming Do the New NDCs Put Us on Track For?

Last year, global projections estimated that, if countries achieved their NDCs, the world was on track for 2.6-2.8 degrees C (4.7-5 degrees F) of warming by the end of the century. According to this year's UN Emissions Gap Report, new NDCs have slightly improved that outlook: If countries fully implement their current commitments, warming could be limited to 2.3-2.5 degrees C (4.1-4.5 degrees F) by 2100. This is still well above the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5-2 degrees C.

These projections also assume that countries have the policies and finance needed to turn their pledges into action. Under laws and measures that are already in place, the world is still headed for a catastrophic 2.8 degrees C (5 degrees F) of warming — levels that would bring widespread damage to ecosystems; more extreme storms, fires, floods and heatwaves; and increased risks to food and water security across the world. 

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How Do Specific Countries' Climate Plans Stack Up?

Among the countries that have submitted new NDCs so far, the United Kingdom stands out for its ambitious goal to cut emissions 81% from 1990 levels by 2035. This rapid decline in the coming decade would put the country on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, based on realistic rates of technology deployment and ambitious but achievable shifts in consumer and business behavior.

The European Union aims to cut emissions 66.25%-72.5% below 1990 levels by 2035. Achieving the higher end of the range (72.5%) is critical to staying on a path to 1.5 degrees C, according to WRI analysis. This would also support a smoother and more realistic transition toward the EU Council's goals of reducing emissions 90% by 2040 and reaching net zero by 2050. By contrast, lowering emissions only 66.25% by 2035 would require the EU to make steep and challenging cuts in the final five years before 2040.

China committed to reduce emissions 7%-10% below its peak level by 2035. This is the first time China has set an absolute, economy-wide emissions target covering all greenhouse gases and clearly signals a post-peak decline in emissions. The country also announced several sector-specific commitments to support this transition. Current trends suggest China could overdeliver on its 2035 goal, given its rapid deployment of clean technology. The country already saw a year-over-year emissions decline of about 1% in the first half of 2025, and recent analysis suggests its CO2 emissions have been flat or falling for 18 months. In addition, renewables, batteries and EVs now contribute roughly one-quarter of China's economic growth.

Indonesia's NDC states that emissions will peak by 2030 and then decline to 1.26-1.49 GtCO2e by 2035, depending on economic growth and international support. While this marks progress, both scenarios show relatively slow emissions reductions over the coming decade. As a result, Indonesia would need to make steeper, faster cuts after 2035 to achieve its goal of net-zero emissions by 2060 or earlier.

Other countries, such as Japan and the United States, have opted for a "linear" approach toward net zero. This means if they drew a straight line to their net-zero target (for example, 0 GtCO2e in 2050), their 2030 and 2035 targets would fall along it, reflecting a constant decline in emissions each year. Japan aims to cut emissions 60% from 2013 levels by 2035, while the United States has pledged a 61%-66% reduction from 2005 levels by 2035. This linear approach — compared to earlier, steeper emissions cuts — can still achieve net zero by mid-century, but risks compromising global temperature targets by using more of the world's carbon budget sooner.

Despite the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and reversing many federal climate policies, its NDC may still guide climate action at the state, city and local levels. Many of these entities have already rallied around the new NDC and are committed to making progress toward its targets.

Canada made only a marginal increase to its target, shifting from a 40%-45% emissions reduction by 2030 to 45%-50% by 2035 from 2005 levels. This falls short of the recommendation from Canada's own Net-Zero Advisory Body, which called for a 50%-55% reduction by 2035 — and warned that anything below 50% risks derailing progress toward the country's legislated net-zero goal by 2050. Canada is also working to cut methane emissions by over 35% by 2030, including a 75% reduction from its oil and gas sector relative to 2012.

Emissions-reduction targets put forward by major emitters so far:

^{*Mexico and South Korea announced 2035 top-line emissions-reduction targets but had not yet officially submitted NDCs as of Nov. 9.}

How Are High-Emitting Countries Addressing Key Areas like Energy, Forestry and Transport?

Establishing specific targets and measures for high-emitting economic sectors is essential for driving progress on the ground. It signals to stakeholders across government, industry and finance where action and investment are most needed to meet climate goals. Such measures are especially important among G20 countries, which can shape global supply chains, set standards, and direct vast public and private capital toward low-carbon solutions.

As more major emitters come forth with new NDCs, a clearer picture is emerging of how they are embedding sector-specific action into their climate commitments.

Energy

Only a few G20 countries have set clear renewable electricity targets in their NDCs. The U.K., for example, pledged to achieve at least 95% clean electricity by 2030. Australia committed to 82% renewables by the same year. The EU aims to meet at least 42.5% of its total energy consumption with renewable sources by 2030, with an aspirational goal of 45%. China pledged that, by 2035, it will raise the share of non-fossil fuels in domestic energy consumption to over 30% and increase wind and solar capacity sixfold from 2020 levels. South Africa has set a goal of installing 44 GW of new renewable energy capacity by 2035. Others, including Canada, Brazil, Turkey and Russia, signaled plans to expand clean energy but without quantified targets.

Meanwhile, progress on transitioning away from fossil fuels remains uneven. The U.K. has already phased out coal power and pledged to hold consultations on ending new oil and gas exploration licenses. Canada and Australia are working to end coal power by 2030 and 2040, respectively. The EU aims for its energy sector to be largely decarbonized in the 2030s, with no place for new coal. Russia positioned natural gas as a transitional fuel, while Brazil encourages the replacement of fossil fuels by promoting "sustainable fuels" and electrification.

But this is not enough: Much of the focus remains on phasing out coal, particularly among developed economies, while oil and gas receive less attention. Without clear, time-bound decline pathways for all fossil fuels, clean-energy growth alone may not cut absolute emissions fast enough to align with the Paris Agreement's goals.

Transport

Only three G20 members include clear targets for zero-emissions vehicles in their NDCs. The U.K. has adopted a mandate requiring 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans to be zero-emissions by 2030, reaching 100% by 2035. Canada's Electric Vehicle Availability Standard requires 100% zero-emissions vehicle sales by 2035. The EU set a target for all new cars, vans and urban buses to be zero-emissions by 2035.

Meanwhile, Australia's 2024 New Vehicle Efficiency Standard introduces declining emissions limits for new vehicles from 2025, aiming to cut emissions intensity by around 60% for passenger vehicles and by half for light commercial vehicles by 2030. And China's NDC envisions that EVs will dominate new vehicle sales by 2035.

Forests

Most G20 members include land use and forestry measures in their NDCs, though the scope and specificity of those commitments vary widely.

Some set quantitative restoration and carbon sink targets. For example, Brazil pledged to suppress illegal deforestation and scale restoration initiatives, with goals to recover millions of hectares of forest in the coming decades. Canada and the United States have committed to protecting and conserving 30% of their land and waters by 2030. Australia's Strategy for Nature 2024-2030 seeks to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by the same year. China has pledged to expand its forests significantly by 2035, and Indonesia aims to restore two million hectares of peatlands and rehabilitate 8.3 million hectares of degraded land by 2030.

Countries like Turkey and Russia have made broader conservation pledges without quantified targets. Just two G20 countries, Japan and South Africa, do not include any specific targets or measures related to forestry in their NDCs.

What Other Trends Are Emerging Among the New NDCs?

Several other trends are emerging among the new NDCs. While the submissions so far offer valuable insights, they don't yet reflect the full picture; deeper analysis will be needed once all NDCs have been submitted.

1) Nearly all new NDCs include 2035 mitigation measures, with many setting economy-wide emissions-reduction targets.

Almost all of the 108 NDCs submitted thus far — with the exceptions of Niue, Venezuela and Zambia — include new mitigation measures through 2035.

Most (102) express their 2035 targets as emissions-reduction goals. The exceptions are Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua, which instead included sectoral mitigation measures. Cuba, for example, committed to increase renewable electricity generation and improve energy efficiency by 2035.

Seventy-one of the countries with emissions-reduction goals set economy-wide targets covering all sectors and greenhouse gases (as encouraged by the 2023 Global Stocktake). Notably, China's new target covers all sectors and GHGs for the first time. This is an important step: China's previous NDCs covered only CO2, but the country's non-CO2 emissions alone place it among the world's top 10 emitters.

Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries are required to submit economy-wide targets, while developing countries are encouraged to work toward them over time.

2) Most countries did not strengthen their 2030 targets.

Despite clear scientific evidence and UN decisions urging stronger 2030 targets, only 15 (14%) of 108 countries have strengthened their 2030 emissions pledges. This includes Ethiopia, Saint Lucia, Nepal, Moldova, Jamaica and Montenegro, among others. For example, Montenegro revised its 2030 emissions-reduction target from 35% to 55% and set a 60% target by 2035, compared to 1990 levels.

Notably, none of the wealthier, high-emitting and more developed countries have strengthened their 2030 targets — despite having the greatest capacity and responsibility to take the lead on slashing emissions.

3) Most countries have strengthened their adaptation measures.

In the face of worsening climate impacts, 61 of 108 countries set stronger adaptation commitments in their new NDCs, continuing a trend seen in previous rounds. Many of these countries are prioritizing adaptation across sectors such as food and water systems, public health and nature-based solutions.

For example, Ecuador, which is particularly vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods, prioritized action to build resilience of its water resources, human health and settlements, and natural heritage. Canada, which has witnessed devastating wildfires in recent years, cited its National Adaptation Strategy, which provides a framework for disaster resilience, biodiversity, public health and infrastructure.

4) Developing countries continue to take the lead on reporting finance needs in their NDCs.

Among the 108 countries with new NDCs, 41 developing countries have reported specific financial requirements to implement their plans, totaling $2.8 trillion so far. This continues a trend seen in previous rounds, with the vast majority of reported finance needs consistently coming from developing countries.

Ten, including Ecuador, Barbados, Thailand and Tonga, reported finance needs for the first time in 2025, while 11 increased their estimates compared to previous NDCs. The largest increases came from Angola, whose needs jumped from $44 billion to $412 billion (with about 89% conditional on international support), and Pakistan, whose funding needs rose from $241 billion to $565 billion.

These numbers highlight the urgent need for scaled and predictable finance to support developing countries' climate goals. At the same time, total finance needs are likely underestimated, given that only about half of the 61 countries included cost data. This underscores the importance of enhanced transparency and support in climate finance planning.

5) More countries are incorporating 'just transition' in their NDCs.

Compared to previous rounds, more countries now explicitly mention a "just transition" in their NDCs. Ninety-two (80%) of the NDCs submitted thus far include this concept, which aims to ensure equitable and inclusive action toward low-carbon, climate-resilient societies. Crucially, countries are increasingly going beyond one-line references and expanding upon specific just transition efforts that are already underway or planned. Many, such as Colombia, Sri Lanka, Eswatini and the U.K., dedicate entire sections of their new NDCs to this concept.

Countries are also defining "just transition" more clearly and specifying where it is most relevant to their national climate action. Bangladesh, Kyrgyzstan and Mauritius note the development of policies, frameworks and commissions to move their domestic just transition actions forward. Brazil and Indonesia explicitly reference decent work and quality jobs. Countries like Moldova, Azerbaijan and the UAE reference the importance of skills and training to support workers and youth. While the energy sector remains the main focus for just transition discussions, some countries also incorporate areas such as water, agriculture, waste and climate adaptation.

6) Countries are recognizing the importance of local action.

Some countries' NDCs also recognize the critical role that subnational actors, such as cities, states and regions, play in shaping and delivering climate action. According to UN-Habitat, the number of assessed NDCs with strong, action-oriented urban content has nearly doubled since the last cycle, reflecting a clear shift toward recognizing the role of cities in mitigation and adaptation.

More than 50 of the newly submitted NDCs come from countries that have endorsed the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP) — an initiative that aims to strengthen collaboration between national and subnational governments on climate planning and implementation. As part of this commitment, 77 countries and the EU pledged to consult with and integrate subnational priorities and needs into their NDCs.

Brazil, for example, highlights an instrument called "climate federalism" designed to support the integration of climate action into planning and decision-making across all levels of government. Similarly, Colombia acknowledged the role of subnational governments in planning and implementing measures to both mitigate and adapt to climate change in its NDC.

What's Next for NDCs?

While some countries have yet to submit their commitments, the storyline is already clear: New NDCs will not put the world on track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C.

 

WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our Resource Hub for new articles, research, webinars and more.

The big question now is how countries respond at COP30 to narrow that gap. They must address what comes after NDCs, grappling with how to turn ambition into action and keep a safer future within reach.

Ultimately, putting forward strong plans — and fulfilling them — are essential levers; not only for limiting warming, but for safeguarding the health, prosperity and security of current and future generations.

Editor's note: This article was originally published in June 2025. It was last updated in November 2025 with analysis of new NDCs submitted through Nov. 9.