Are Countries’ New Climate Plans Ambitious Enough? What We Know So Far

2025 is a pivotal moment for climate action. Countries are submitting new national climate commitments, known as "nationally determined contributions" or "NDCs," that will shape the trajectory of global climate progress through 2035.

These new commitments will show how boldly countries plan to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; transform their economies; and strengthen resilience to growing threats, like extreme weather, wildfires and floods. Together, they will determine how far the world goes toward limiting global temperature rise and avoiding the worst climate impacts.

Over 60 countries — including some major emitters, such as Brazil, Canada, Japan and the U.K. — have already put forward new NDCs. These represent an improvement from previous commitments, and many smaller and developing nations are leading the way with stronger targets. Yet collective ambition still falls short of what's needed to keep the world within critical warming thresholds, according to a recent NDC Synthesis Report from the UN.

This is not the complete picture: Countries representing nearly 70% of global emissions have yet to submit their NDCs and are expected to do so by the 2025 UN climate summit (COP30) this November. But the current NDCs do give us an idea of where progress is headed.

We analyzed the submissions thus far for a snapshot of how countries' climate plans are shaping up and what they reveal about the road ahead.

How Many Countries Have Submitted New NDCs?

Under the Paris Agreement, 2025 NDCs were technically due in February. As of Sept. 30, 61 countries, covering 31% of the world's emissions, had submitted them.

Among the G20 — the world's largest GHG emitters — seven have put forth new NDCs: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. (The U.S. has since announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, effective January 2026, though its NDC remains officially listed with the UNFCCC.) Others, including China, the EU and Turkey, announced top-line emissions targets but have yet to submit official NDCs.

Many more countries have also stepped forward, including Chile, Ecuador and Uruguay in Latin America; Kenya, Ethiopia and Nigeria in Africa; and island states such as Singapore, the Marshall Islands and the Maldives.

Most of the remaining countries are expected to present their new NDCs by the UN Climate Conference (COP30) in November.

How Much Have 2025 NDCs Reduced the Emissions Gap?

Compared to previous 2030 targets, the NDCs submitted so far have made only a modest dent in the 2035 emissions gap: the difference between where emissions need to be to align with 1.5 degrees C and where they're expected to be under countries' climate plans.

If fully implemented, new "unconditional NDCs" (those that don't require international support) are projected to reduce emissions by an additional 1.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2035 compared to 2030. This leaves an emissions gap of 29.9 GtCO2e to hold warming to 1.5 degrees C. When "conditional NDCs" (those that do require international support) are included, the projected emissions reductions rise to 1.6 GtCO2e, leaving a gap of 26.6 GtCO2e.

In other words, the NDCs submitted so far achieve less than 6% of the additional emissions reductions needed by 2035 to close the gap to 1.5 degrees C.

Factoring in countries that have put forth emissions targets but not official NDCs (like China, the EU and Turkey) brings emissions down by an additional 1.3 GtCO2e by 2035. Even this is far from what's needed to keep warming within safe limits.

Still, many of the G20 countries — which together account for about half of global GHG emissions — have yet to submit. This raises the stakes for the upcoming NDCs. Ambitious commitments (particularly from the highest emitters) could narrow the emissions gap. Or, if their pledges fall short, they could leave the world locked into a trajectory that puts global temperature targets out of reach.

Emissions-reduction targets put forward by major emitters so far:

^{*These countries have announced 2035 top-line emissions-reduction targets but had not yet submitted NDCs as of Sept. 30.}

How Do Specific Countries' Climate Plans Stack Up?

Among the countries that have submitted new NDCs so far, the United Kingdom stands out for its ambitious goal to cut emissions 81% from 1990 levels by 2035. This rapid decline in the coming decade would put the country on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, based on realistic rates of technology deployment and ambitious but achievable shifts in consumer and business behavior.

Other countries, such as Japan and the United States, have opted for a "linear" approach toward net zero. This means if they drew a straight line to their net-zero target (for example, 0 GtCO2e in 2050), their 2030 and 2035 targets would fall along it, reflecting a constant decline in emissions each year. Japan aims to cut emissions 60% from 2013 levels by 2035, while the United States has pledged a 61%-66% reduction from 2005 levels by 2035. This linear approach — compared to earlier, steeper emissions cuts — can still achieve net zero by mid-century, but risks compromising global temperature targets by using more of the world's carbon budget sooner.

Despite the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and reversing many federal climate policies, its NDC may still guide climate action at the state, city and local levels. Many of these entities have already rallied around the new NDC and are committed to making progress toward its targets.

Brazil presented a range of emissions targets in its NDC, committing to a 59%-67% reduction from 2005 levels by 2035. A 67% reduction could put Brazil on track for climate neutrality by 2050, while a 59% reduction falls short of that goal. It is unclear which target the government intends to pursue, leaving Brazil's true ambition in question. The NDC also omits carbon budgets for specific sectors (such as energy, transport or agriculture), which would clarify how it plans to meet its overarching emissions goals. However, Brazil committed to develop these sectoral plans at a later date.

Canada made only a marginal increase to its target, shifting from a 40%-45% emissions reduction by 2030 to 45%-50% by 2035 from 2005 levels. This falls short of the recommendation from Canada's own Net-Zero Advisory Body, which called for a 50%-55% reduction by 2035 — and warned that anything below 50% risks derailing progress toward the country's legislated net-zero goal by 2050. Canada is also working to cut methane emissions by over 35% by 2030, including a 75% reduction from its oil and gas sector relative to 2012.

Among the major emitters that have put forward emissions targets but not NDCs, ambition is mixed. China announced that it aims to cut emissions 7%-10% from peak levels by 2035, though without specifying a baseline year. Turkey pledged to cut emissions to 643 million tonnes by 2035. And the European Union released a statement of intent pledging a 66.25%-72.5% reduction by 2035 from 1990 levels.

How Are High-Emitting Countries Addressing Key Areas like Energy, Forestry and Transport?

Establishing specific targets and measures for high-emitting sectors like energy, forestry and transport is essential for driving progress on the ground. It signals to stakeholders across government, industry and finance where action and investment are most needed to meet climate goals. Such measures are especially important among G20 countries, which can shape global supply chains, set standards, and direct vast public and private capital toward low-carbon solutions.

As more G20 countries come forth with new NDCs, a clearer picture is emerging of how they are embedding sector-specific action into their climate commitments.

Energy

Only a few G20 countries have set clear renewable electricity targets. The U.K., for example, pledged to achieve at least 95% clean electricity by 2030. Australia committed to 82% renewables by the same year. Others, including Canada, Brazil and Russia, signaled plans to expand clean energy but without quantified targets. China's announcement pledged that, by 2035, it will raise the share of non-fossil fuels in domestic energy consumption to over 30% and increase wind and solar capacity sixfold from 2020 levels.

Meanwhile, progress on transitioning away from fossil fuels remains uneven. The U.K. has already phased out coal power and pledged to hold consultations on ending new oil and gas exploration licenses. Canada and Australia are working to end coal power by 2030 and 2040, respectively. Russia positioned natural gas as a transitional fuel, while Brazil encourages the replacement of fossil fuels by promoting sustainable biofuels and electrification.

But this is not enough: Much of the focus remains on phasing out coal, particularly among developed economies, while oil and gas receive less attention. Without clear, time-bound decline pathways for all fossil fuels, clean-energy growth alone may not cut absolute emissions fast enough to align with the Paris Agreement's goals.

Transport

Only two G20 countries include clear targets for zero-emission vehicles in their NDCs. The U.K. has adopted a mandate requiring 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans to be zero-emission by 2030, reaching 100% by 2035. Canada's Electric Vehicle Availability Standard requires 100% zero-emissions vehicle sales by 2035.

Forestry

Brazil has pledged to suppress illegal deforestation and scale restoration initiatives, with goals to recover millions of hectares of forest by 2030 and 2050. Canada and the United States have committed to protecting and conserving 30% of their land and waters by 2030, while Australia's Strategy for Nature 2024-2030 seeks to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by the same year. China has pledged to expand its forests significantly by 2035.

What Other Trends Are Emerging Among NDCs Submitted So Far?

Several other trends are starting to emerge among the new NDCs. While submissions so far offer valuable insights, they don't yet reflect the full picture; deeper analysis will be needed as more NDCs come in by COP30 in November.

1) Nearly all new NDCs include 2035 mitigation measures, with half setting economy-wide emissions-reduction targets.

Almost all of the 61 NDCs submitted thus far — with the exceptions of Niue and Zambia — include new mitigation measures through 2035.

Most (56) express their 2035 targets as emissions-reduction goals. The exceptions are Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua, which instead included sectoral mitigation measures. Cuba, for example, committed to increase renewable electricity generation and improve energy efficiency by 2035.

Half of the countries with emissions-reduction goals set economy-wide targets covering all sectors and greenhouse gases (as encouraged by the 2023 Global Stocktake). Notably, China announced that its new top-line emissions target will for the first time cover all sectors and GHGs. This is an important step: China's previous NDCs covered only CO2, but the country's non-CO2 emissions alone place it among the world's top 10 emitters.

Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries are required to submit economy-wide targets, while developing countries are encouraged to work toward them over time.

2) Most countries did not strengthen their 2030 targets.

Despite clear scientific evidence and UN decisions urging stronger 2030 targets, only 14 (23%) of 61 countries have strengthened their 2030 emissions pledges. This includes Ethiopia, Saint Lucia, Nepal, Moldova, Jamaica and Montenegro, among others. For example, Montenegro revised its 2030 emissions-reduction target from 35% to 55% and set a 60% target by 2035, compared to 1990 levels.

Notably, none of the wealthier, high-emitting and more developed countries have strengthened their 2030 targets — despite having the greatest capacity and responsibility to take the lead on slashing emissions.

3) Most countries have strengthened their adaptation measures.

In the face of worsening climate impacts, 45 of 61 countries set stronger adaptation commitments in their new NDCs, continuing a trend seen in previous rounds. Many of these countries are prioritizing adaptation across sectors such as food and water systems, public health and nature-based solutions.

For example, Ecuador, which is particularly vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods, prioritized action to build resilience of its water resources, human health and settlements, and natural heritage. Canada, which has witnessed devastating wildfires in recent years, cited its National Adaptation Strategy, which provides a framework for disaster resilience, biodiversity, public health and infrastructure.

4) Developing countries continue to take the lead on reporting finance needs in their NDCs.

Among the 61 countries with new NDCs, 29 developing countries have reported specific financial requirements to implement their plans, totaling $1.9 trillion so far. This continues a trend seen in previous rounds, with the vast majority of reported finance needs consistently coming from developing countries.

Six, including Ecuador, Barbados and Tonga, reported finance needs for the first time in 2025, while 14 increased their estimates compared to previous NDCs. The largest increases came from Angola, whose needs jumped from $44 billion to $412 billion (with about 89% conditional on international support), and Pakistan, whose funding needs rose from $241 billion to $565 billion.

These numbers highlight the urgent need for scaled and predictable finance to support developing countries' climate goals. At the same time, total finance needs are likely underestimated, given that only about half of the 61 countries included cost data. This underscores the importance of enhanced transparency and support in climate finance planning.

5) More and more countries are incorporating 'just transition' in their NDCs.

Forty-four (72%) of the NDCs submitted so far explicitly mention a "just transition," representing a major increase from previous rounds. Crucially, more countries are now going beyond one-line references and expanding upon specific just transition efforts that are already underway or planned. Many, such as Colombia, Sri Lanka, Eswatini and the U.K., dedicate entire sections of their new NDCs to this concept.

Countries are also defining "just transition" more clearly and specifying where it is most relevant to their national climate action. Bangladesh and Brazil, for example, explicitly reference decent work and quality jobs. Countries like Moldova and the UAE reference the importance of skills and training to support workers and youth. While the energy sector remains the main focus for just transition discussions, some countries also incorporate areas such as water, agriculture, waste and climate adaptation.

6) Countries are recognizing the importance of subnational action.

Some countries' NDCs also recognize the critical role that subnational actors, such as cities, states and regions, play in shaping and delivering climate action.

More than 30 of the newly submitted NDCs come from countries that have endorsed the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP), and several mention it explicitly. The CHAMP initiative — launched in 2023 by the COP28 Presidency, in partnership with Bloomberg Philanthropies and with the support of WRI and other partners — aims to strengthen collaboration between national and subnational governments on climate planning and implementation. As part of this commitment, 77 countries pledged to consult with and integrate subnational priorities and needs into their NDCs.

Brazil, for example, highlights an instrument called "climate federalism" designed to support the integration of climate action into planning and decision-making across all levels of government. Similarly, Colombia acknowledged the role of subnational governments in planning and implementing measures to both mitigate and adapt to climate change in its NDC.

What's Next for NDCs?

While many countries have yet to submit their commitments, the storyline is already clear: New NDCs will not put the world on track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C.

The big question now is how countries respond at COP30 to narrow that gap. They must address what comes after NDCs, grappling with how to turn ambition into action and keep a safer future within reach.

Ultimately, putting forward strong plans — and fulfilling them — are essential levers; not only for limiting warming, but for safeguarding the health, prosperity and security of current and future generations.

Editor's note: This article was originally published in June 2025. It was updated in October 2025 with analysis of new NDCs submitted through Sept. 30.