Description:

Canada, the EU-28, and the United States have put forward greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets in their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and Japan has published a draft of its proposed target. This chart uses historical GHG emissions data and the targets and timetables in submitted pre-2020 pledges (for 2020 reductions) and INDCs to estimate the average annual change in emissions (decarbonization rate) from 2020-2030.

Methods, Assumptions and Sources:

The chart includes estimates for the average annual change in emissions (decarbonization rate) from 2020-2030 that both excludes and includes the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector, as the treatment of this sector is not consistent across Canada, EU, Japan, and U.S. INDCs. As this limits direct comparability, this chart presents estimates without and with accounting for the LULUCF sector.

Historical emissions data (1990-2013) for Canada, Japan, and the United States comes from each country’s 2015 national inventory report submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat.

Historical emissions data (1990-2012) for the EU-28 come from the 2014 national inventory report submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat. An estimate of EU-28 emissions for 2013 was taken from a preliminary inventory report . This figure excluded emissions from the LULUCF. To estimate a 2013 emissions value for the EU, including the LULUCF sector (“net” emissions), the reported contribution of the LULUCF sector for 2012 (from the 2014 inventory report) was added to 2013 emissions value excluding LULUCF.

Assumptions for estimating emissions in 2020 include:

  • Canada’s 2020 target is taken as a 17% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 from 2005 levels.

  • The EU-28 2020 target is taken as a 20% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 from 1990 levels.

  • The Japan 2020 target is taken as a 3.8% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 from 2005 levels.

  • The United States’ 2020 target is taken as a 17% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 from 2005 levels.

Assumptions for estimating emissions in 2030 include:

  • The Canada INDC target is taken as a 30% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels.

  • The EU-28 INDC target is taken as a 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 from 1990 levels.

  • The Japan INDC proposed target is taken as a 26% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 from 2013 levels.

  • The U.S. INDC target is taken as a 27% reduction in GHG emissions (the median of the range provided in the U.S. INDC) by 2025 from 2005 levels. In addition, United States 2030 emissions levels are then interpolated based on estimated emissions levels for 2025 and 2050. (The U.S. INDC suggests an emissions trajectory that aims to achieve an 80% reduction from 2005 levels by 2050).