The center of gravity for climate progress is shifting. Increasingly, many of the countries driving the global climate transition are those that have contributed the least to historical emissions yet are among the most vulnerable to climate impacts. Emerging economies are showing that climate action is not only a moral imperative but a pathway to competitiveness, resilience and economic growth. Colombia exemplifies this broader movement: A country that, despite accounting for just 0.59% of global emissions, has consistently chosen to lead.

This leadership stands out at a time when collective ambition is failing to keep pace with the urgency of the climate crisis. 2025 was meant to be a pivotal year for climate action, with countries submitting new climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which set emission reduction and climate adaptation goals for the next decade. By the end of 2025, 125 countries had submitted new NDCs. While this shows progress, the combined ambition of these commitments still falls short of what is needed to keep the world within critical warming thresholds.

Historically, Colombia’s NDCs have been among the most ambitious in the Latin American and Caribbean region. The country’s first NDC submission in 2015 committed to reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2030, or up to 30% with international support. In 2020, Colombia strengthened its ambition, increasing its 2030 target to a 51% emissions reduction below BAU.

Five years later in 2025, Colombia submitted its updated NDC, presenting its 2035 target as an absolute emissions limit. Under this approach, the country commits to limit its emissions in 2035 to between 155 million and 161 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Notably, the 2035 limit is lower than Colombia’s 2030 emissions level under its previous NDC target, signaling a downward emissions trajectory consistent with the country’s goal of reaching net zero by 2050. Because the target is framed as an absolute limit — without an equivalent percentage reduction relative to a projected BAU scenario — it cannot be expressed directly as a single percentage reduction, as in previous NDC cycles. Colombia’s first Biennial Transparency Report provides emissions projections only up to 2030 and notes that the country is still building the technical capacity to extend modeling to 2035 and 2050, with updated emissions projections expected in its second transparency report in 2026.

The new NDC also frames an adaptation component around a long-term goal: Reducing the risk and socio-economic impacts of climate variability and change. It’s structured across eight territorial dimensions — biodiversity and ecosystem services, water resources, food security and agricultural production, human health, human habitat, infrastructure, disaster risk, and cultural heritage —  within the Integrated Information System for Vulnerability, Risk and Adaptation (SIIVRA, by its Spanish acronym), helping ensure actions are measurable and trackable over time.

Colombia’s NDC also sets out clear needs for support to implement its adaptation component, recognizing that domestic resources alone are insufficient to deliver its resilience goals. It identifies four gaps: finance, technology transfer, capacity-building, and planning and governance. It highlights, for example, an estimated funding shortfall of around 0.13% of Colombia’s GDP per year, roughly 2 trillion Colombian pesos annually ($540 million) to meet 2030 adaptation targets, and the need to strengthen technical and operational capacity across levels of government to plan, implement and monitor adaptation measures effectively.

The NDC calls for international support, particularly in finance, capacity-building and technology transfer, and emphasizes the need for consolidating the SIIVRA as a monitoring tool. It also takes stock of Colombia’s National Adaptation Plan, noting that a 2025 assessment found the 2012 Plan helped build knowledge but had limited impact on structural change, with progress largely concentrated in diagnostics and pilot projects. As a result, the NDC underscores the need for technical and financial support to update the National Adaptation Plan into a stronger framework with verifiable goals aligned with the NDC and the long-term climate strategy.

The NDC also stands out for including a dedicated narrative on loss and damage, acknowledging that some climate impacts are already severe and, in some cases, irreversible. It estimates the annual economic loss from climate events at 4.03 trillion Colombian pesos ($1.1 billion). It also highlights forced human displacement as a major non-economic impact, recognizing it as an increasingly visible consequence of floods, droughts and other disasters. In 2023 alone, Colombia registered 351,000 new internal displacements linked to climate-related events. In response, the country proposes developing a National Framework for Loss and Damage to better coordinate sectoral action and financing, while also seeking to mobilize support through the international Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage established at the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28).

While Colombia’s new NDC covers a wide range of sectors, three in particular are worth watching closely: forests, energy and cities. Land-use change and energy are Colombia’s largest sources of emissions, while the energy sector sits at the heart of the climate transition amid ongoing dependence on fossil fuels. As most Colombians live in increasingly vulnerable urban areas, cities are critical for both climate mitigation and adaptation. Together, these three areas offer valuable insights not only into Colombia’s pathway to 2035 but also for other countries navigating similar challenges.

1) Nature at the Center of Climate Ambition

In its latest NDC submission, Colombia increases its ambition on forests and biodiversity under the framework of “Peace with Nature” and a biocultural protection approach. The country is recognized as one of the world’s megadiverse countries, hosting nearly 10% of global biodiversity, including around 67,000 species.

Colombia’s natural forests cover approximately 59.7 million hectares, representing 52.3% of the national terrestrial territory, with the Amazon accounting for roughly two-thirds of this area. Yet deforestation remains a significant challenge: Between 2002 and 2024, Colombia lost an estimated 2.1 million hectares of primary humid forest, mostly driven by agricultural expansion (particularly extensive cattle ranching), the cultivation of illicit crops and land grabbing.

The country reaffirms its commitment to tackling deforestation by setting a 2030 target to reduce the annual deforestation rate to 50,000 hectares and a more ambitious 2035 target to limit deforestation to between 37,500 and 49,999 hectares per year. In parallel, Colombia commits to the global 30x30 goal, aiming to protect at least 30% of its continental and marine territory by 2030.

The NDC also positions the Amazon biome as a strategic pillar for national and regional climate stability, given its essential role in stabilizing regional climate patterns, capturing and storing large volumes of carbon, and maintaining ecosystem connectivity across the Andes–Amazon–Orinoquía system. To achieve this, the NDC aims to prevent new mineral and hydrocarbon exploration in the region, thereby preserving its ecological integrity. Importantly, it recognizes Indigenous territories as fundamental spaces for climate action and, for the first time, includes specific measures developed in collaboration with Indigenous peoples to protect biodiversity based on traditional knowledge systems.

Beyond the NDC, Colombia has recently taken steps to strengthen Indigenous self-governance in the Amazon, including the formalization of the country’s first Indigenous Territorial Entities in the eastern Colombian Amazon. This recognizes Indigenous governments as legitimate governing bodies with greater responsibilities for territorial and environmental management.

Colombia’s NDC also includes measures to manage blue carbon ecosystems (mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses). These ecosystems store and capture carbon at very high rates per unit area, while also supporting fisheries and coastal livelihoods, strengthening ecotourism and improving water quality. Colombia has approximately 285,000 hectares of mangroves across its Caribbean and Pacific coasts. Despite its mitigation potential, in the NDC, mangroves are reflected only in the adaptation component, with measures focused largely on strengthening management and integrating ecosystem-based adaptation into marine and coastal protected areas, rather than setting explicit restoration or deforestation-reduction targets.

Encouragingly, Colombia is working to strengthen the technical basis for integrating blue carbon into its mitigation framework, starting by calculating the mitigation potential of mangroves and seagrasses. Expanding monitoring to better capture coastal and marine carbon dynamics could help unlock the full climate potential of these ecosystems.

2) Navigating a Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

Although Colombia has a relatively clean electricity matrix, with hydropower accounting for almost 60% of total electricity generation in 2024, its energy sector is the second-largest source of national  greenhouse gas emissions, representing 31.5% of total emissions in 2022. This is closely linked to the country’s long-standing economic dependence on fossil fuel extraction, which has historically been a pillar of the national economy and a significant source of export revenues. At the same time, Colombia remains reliant on fossil fuels across end-use sectors, particularly transport, industry and households, highlighting the need to accelerate electrification and energy efficiency beyond the power sector.

Meanwhile, Colombia’s heavy reliance on hydropower makes its electricity system highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In 2024, 35.7% of electricity generation came from fossil fuels, an already significant share that can rise further during dry periods.  During El Niño events, reduced water availability forces increased reliance on coal- and gas-fired thermal power plants, resulting in sharp spikes in emissions. To address this vulnerability, Colombia’s NDC prioritizes the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, including solar and wind energy.

These efforts are complemented by the promotion of energy communities, enabling local, rural and ethnic communities to generate and manage their own clean energy, as well as by commitments to modernize the electricity network both across the national grid and in non-interconnected areas. Likewise, the NDC includes energy efficiency measures to reduce emissions without compromising the reliability of electricity service. It also promotes demand-side measures such as hourly tariffs aimed at shifting electricity consumption away from peak hours, when carbon-intensive thermal generation is most active.

Finally, to address economic dependence on fossil fuels, Colombia has committed to halt the signing of new contracts for hydrocarbon exploration. The NDC states that by 2029, the country will publish a definitive roadmap for exiting fossil fuels, outlining the technical, fiscal and labor transitions required to remove these fuels from the national energy matrix. This process is accompanied by the progressive dismantling of carbon-intensive fossil fuel subsidies and implementing a just labor transition strategy to provide social protection and create new green employment opportunities for workers currently employed in the coal and oil sectors.

Colombia has also signaled internationally its commitment to accelerating the global transition away from fossil fuels. The country has endorsed the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, becoming not only the first Latin American state to join the bloc, but also the largest fossil fuel producer to date to endorse the proposal. In April 2026, the governments of Colombia and the Netherlands will jointly host the first International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels. The announcement came at a critical political moment, as the 2025 COP30 final decision text did not include any explicit reference to fossil fuels — despite strong calls from countries for a global roadmap to guide a just transition away from them. The conference aims to help inform the COP30 Presidency as it develops its own transition roadmaps.

Despite these commitments, the political and economic reality of Colombia’s energy transition remains complex and uncertain. Oil and coal continue to account for roughly half of the country’s export revenues, underscoring its structural dependence on fossil fuels. Moreover, the decision to stop new hydrocarbon exploration contracts has had short-term implications for energy security: A domestic gas shortage in late 2025 forced Colombia to begin importing liquefied natural gas to meet household and industrial demand, thereby increasing energy costs and exposing the system to international price volatility.

Political dynamics will further shape the outlook for the energy transition. With congressional elections scheduled for March 2026 and presidential elections in May 2026, the new leadership will be decisive in determining whether Colombia’s energy transition proceeds along an accelerated pathway or shifts towards a slower, more conservative trajectory. The current public debate includes proposals that would place greater emphasis on oil and gas within the national energy mix, while others would prioritize faster diversification. These election outcomes will therefore play a critical role in defining the credibility, pace and durability of the country’s long-term commitment to a just transition away from fossil fuels.

3) How Cities Are Driving the Climate Transition

In Colombia, where more than 76% of the population resides in urban areas, cities have emerged as key laboratories for climate action, developing innovative responses to climate risks that have inspired and informed global best practices. In Barranquilla, the Todos al Parque (Everyone to the Park) program has transformed public space, ensuring that 93% of households have access to a green public space within an eight-minute walk. In Medellín, the implementation of green corridors has contributed to a reduction in average urban temperatures of up to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

Meanwhile, Bogotá has advanced people-centred urban mobility through the Barrios Vitales (Vital Neighbourhoods) initiative, introducing pedestrian-priority zones and reallocating road space from cars to active transport. In Bogotá’s San Felipe neighborhood, these interventions resulted in an 81% increase in public transportation use and an 82% rise in cycling and scooter use. Following implementation, the share of trips made on foot increased from 16% to 21%, contributing to lower traffic volumes and improved air quality, with initial monitoring showing a 13% reduction in PM2.5 concentrations.

Recognizing the role of cities in delivering climate action, Colombia endorsed the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP) for Climate Action. This global initiative seeks to integrate subnational governments into the design of new NDCs and to strengthen the inclusion of subnational content within national climate plans. Through CHAMP, Colombia developed its 2025 NDC with the active participation of cities and communities, committing to formally include subnational governments not only in climate planning processes but also in the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures. As a result, the updated NDC incorporates a set of concrete urban mitigation and adaptation measures.

A person writes on a posterboard during a climate workshop.
During a CHAMP workshop in Bogotá, participants had the opportunity to incorporate subnational perspectives into Colombia's new NDC. Photo by WRI Colombia.

By 2030, the country aims to have 600,000 electric vehicles, including taxis, public passenger transport, light-duty vehicles, light trucks and official government fleets. Achieving this target will require the large-scale deployment of charging infrastructure in major cities, intermediate municipalities and key logistics corridors as well as the incorporation of electric mobility targets into subnational development plans. Likewise, Colombia commits to increasing the modal share of active transport by 5.5% in participating cities by promoting walking and cycling.

The NDC promotes the decarbonization of the building and construction sector by reducing natural gas and electricity consumption in new residential and commercial buildings. Complementing these efforts, it promotes the adoption of thermal districts as a centralized solution for urban cooling, replacing inefficient individual air-conditioning systems with lower-emission alternatives. The country has set clear milestones for this measure, targeting the implementation of eight thermal districts in several cities by 2030, 12 districts accumulated by 2035 and 15 districts nationwide by 2040, with increasing mitigation potential over time.

Colombia’s NDC also includes a specific commitment to reduce black carbon emissions, recognizing its dual role as a short-lived climate pollutant and a major contributor to air pollution in urban areas. The country has set a target to reduce black carbon emissions by 40% by 2030 compared to 2014 levels, equivalent to an estimated reduction of approximately 6,130 metric tons. By 2035, Colombia aims to reduce black carbon emissions by 6,130 metric tons to 8,873 metric tons, compared to 2014 emissions, excluding those from forest fires.

The Decisive Years Ahead

Looking ahead, Colombia’s climate trajectory will be shaped decisively by domestic political choices. The direction taken by the next administration will be crucial in determining whether the country’s climate ambitions are sustained, implemented, slowed or reversed. The next four years will be particularly decisive, as they coincide with the implementation window for meeting Colombia’s NDC 2030 targets across all sectors, including those highlighted in this analysis.

Ultimately, if Colombia seeks to maintain its role as an international leader on climate action, particularly among emerging economies, its ability to deliver on the commitments set out in its NDC will be a key test of credibility.