Adoption of zero-emission heavy-duty trucks (HDT) grew rapidly in China during the 2021–24 period. The current adoption of zero-emission HDTs is primarily concentrated in closed-loop applications (such as HDTs operating within factories or ports) and urban delivery. However, zero-emission HDTs are expected to expand into the regional delivery and long-haul applications, which are the two most common heavy-duty truck applications in China.

China currently lacks clear targets and comprehensive policies to scale the adoption of zero-emission heavy-duty trucks. This study aims to provide policymakers with insights into how China can accelerate the adoption of zero-emission heavy-duty trucks in regional delivery and long-haul applications by 2035 through demand-side policy interventions. This study evaluates this adoption potential under different scenarios using models to forecast zero-emission truck (ZET) payback periods, total cost of ownership, and market share.

The results show that:

  • Without any policies, zero-emission HDTs become cost-competitive in regional delivery by MY2030–34, while ZET adoption would remain at a nascent stage for long-haul trucking through MY2035. Battery electric trucks will dominate regional delivery, but for long-haul transport, the optimal technological mix is uncertain. In both applications, zero-emission tractor trailers are more likely to achieve a wide adoption than zero-emission straight trucks.
  • Current policies analyzed by this study are effective in increasing ZET market share, particularly for battery electric tractor trailers. However, the near-term sustainability of these policies in maintaining ZET adoption should be considered.
  • The impacts from the enhanced policies vary by policy intensity.

The above findings also lead to these possible policy implications:

  • China’s national governments could establish application- and segment-specific ZET promotion targets. The regional delivery application holds great potential for near-term ZET adoption, particularly for the tractor trailer segment. A high ZET adoption target—33–57 percent—could be set for this segment by 2030, with a robust charging network expected to be in place.
  • Given the significant uncertainties associated with ZET adoption, complementary measures could be considered to mitigate volatility include reducing fossil fuel subsidies, developing futures markets for critical materials and hydrogen, and more.
  • A 50 percent reduction in road charges during the 2024–35 period to be the most effective policy for accelerating ZET adoption, but it should be designed to mitigate potential public revenue losses, such as imposing higher rates on diesel trucks, in line with the European Union’s carbon-indexed road charge policy.
  • Accelerated expansion of public fast-charging stations and lowered overnight charging costs are the second-most influential—yet essential—policy.
  • Given the high costs, both fuel cell electric truck purchase subsidies and hydrogen subsidies would be useful before 2030 to sustain the adoption of fuel cell electric trucks (FCET). As the total cost of ownership of FCETs declines over time, the need for different types of subsidies evolves.
  • In the near term, tractor trailers present stronger opportunities for ZET adoption, while zero-emission straight trucks would need greater policy support. For example, ZET weight allowance is especially crucial for battery electric straight trucks, due to greater payload losses associated with battery electric straight trucks.