The Paris Agreement at 10: A Celebration and a Call to Action

Ten years ago, we witnessed something akin to a miracle.

Hundreds of leaders came together for the UN’s annual climate summit (COP15) in Paris. There, they forged what many thought impossible: a global agreement to curb climate change — one where virtually every country committed to deliver its fair share of action.

The Paris Agreement, as it came to be known, was the culmination of years of hard work and courageous leadership from ministers, heads of state, philanthropists, NGOs and communities. It’s served as the backbone of cooperative climate action ever since. The pact unites the world in a shared goal of holding global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C, a limit scientists say is necessary for averting the worst impacts of climate change.

A decade later, the science shows that the Paris Agreement’s goals are off track. Greenhouse gas emissions haven’t dropped anywhere near the amount needed to hit the 1.5 degree C target.

But that doesn’t mean the agreement isn’t working.

Indeed, the Paris Agreement is still very much worth celebrating. It is doing what it intended to do, albeit not fast enough. And importantly, it’s setting the stage for a new decade of climate action.

The Paris Agreement Has Changed Our Trajectory

Before the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, the planet was hurtling towards up to 4.8 degrees C of warming by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. To put that in perspective, at 4.5 degrees C of warming, 4.7 billion people — more than half the current world population — would experience potentially lethal levels of heat. This would be catastrophic.

Today, assuming all countries honor their commitments, the world is projected to warm by 2.3-2.9 degrees C. This is still a dangerous prospect. But it’s far better than where we were a decade ago. Every tenth of a degree matters when it comes to people’s lives, food and water security, and the severity of extreme storms.

What’s bent the world’s warming trajectory so significantly is the Paris Agreement’s innovative model. The pact’s 195 signatories committed to develop new national climate plans, known as “nationally determined contributions” or “NDCs,” every five years, with each more ambitious than the last. Ten years later, all countries but one — the U.S. — are still in.

Meanwhile, clean tech growth has exceeded expectations. Electric vehicles made up less than 1% of total auto sales a decade ago. Today they’re a fifth, with sales 23% higher this year than last. Renewable energy costs have fallen precipitously. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, 91% of renewable projects commissioned in 2024 were cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives. Solar and wind’s share of total electricity generation have tripled since 2015.

These gains were unfathomable 10 years ago. Yet we know this still isn’t enough.

We Have Much Further to Go to Overcome the Climate Crisis

Countries’ NDCs will bend the temperature trajectory. But even if they’re fully implemented — a big if — they’ll deliver less than 14% of the emissions reductions needed by 2035 to hold warming to 1.5 degrees C.

Research from the Systems Change Lab finds that across 45 indicators of climate progress, none are on track for a 1.5-degree world. None! Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change — from record heat in Europe to recent devastating floods in Asia — become ever-more threatening.

There are reasons for this. Looking back 10 years later, there are things we simply didn’t anticipate when designing the Paris Agreement — issues we must confront as the world moves into its next decade of climate action.

For one, it’s not just emissions reductions we need; it’s economic transformation.

The Paris Agreement was largely envisioned as a decarbonization pact. We now know that achieving its goals requires not just cutting emissions or shifting from one energy source to another; it takes total economic transformation — as well as shifting the entire financial system to support low-carbon development.

Countries must radically change everything they do across every economic sector — from how they grow food and design buildings to the way they make steel, glass and concrete. If economic incentives shift, finance will follow. Current economies were built over centuries. Though speed is critical, we’ll need more than 10 years to reinvent them.

Second, we need a new approach to the fossil fuel industry.

Securing a safe future requires dramatically cutting fossil fuel use. Coal, oil and gas produce nearly 70% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

We optimistically assumed that because of the Paris Agreement, fossil fuel industries would embrace or at least acknowledge their critical role in ensuring the low-carbon transition. We expected they would develop plans that enable the gradual reduction of fossil fuels in our economy, in line with the Paris Agreement. The fossil fuel industry has immense technical and financial capabilities that, if used appropriately, can accelerate the shift to a safer world.

Unfortunately, this has not happened. Instead, the fossil fuel industry has grown larger and seems to have used its immense financial and political power to slow down the low-carbon transition. This is partially because global energy demand is growing faster than clean alternatives are being deployed.

We saw the power of the emboldened fossil fuel industry at COP30, the recent UN climate summit in Belem, Brazil. More than 80 countries advocated for a roadmap to end fossil fuel use. Yet it was ultimately scrapped from the final agreement following pushback from powerful petrostates.

These are realities we need to understand and address. I welcome the Brazilian COP Presidency’s commitment to take forward roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels and end deforestation, as well as the upcoming summit hosted by the Netherlands and Colombia.

We need leadership and vision in this moment, followed by very practical steps that address the geopolitical and other constraints to phasing out fossil fuels.

The Next Decade of Climate Action

The headwinds are real, but the Paris Agreement still provides a strong foundation. We need a global forum for all countries to have a voice on climate change.

However, the Paris Agreement alone can’t solve the climate crisis. In this next decade of climate action, we must build upon the Paris pact to ensure that countries honor their existing climate commitments and increase their ambition. It will take action both inside and outside the UN climate regime to orchestrate the change needed. I explore some of this in my book The New Global Possible. Three things will be critical:

1) Support large, middle-income countries.

As the U.S. and other nations backpedal on climate action, China, India, Brazil, Kenya and others are moving ahead with their green transitions. This isn’t because of any moral imperative. It’s because they see low-carbon development as core to their economic growth and well-being.

For example, China’s clean energy development cut its emissions 1% in the first half of 2025 while delivering 10% of its GDP increase last year. Pakistan has gone from using almost no solar power to solar providing 20% of its electricity next year. Pakistan’s rapid adoption of renewables wasn’t to cut emissions. It was because farmers, businesses and households saw solar as the cheapest and easiest source of power.

Large-and-growing middle-income countries account for 60% of global emissions and 40% of GDP. Together, their green transitions can move the world in the right direction while securing their own prosperity. At the same time, the corollary is true: without their transition, there is no way the world can hold temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C.

2) Build a new kind of multilateralism.

But they can’t do it alone. Confronting the climate crisis must be a truly global and multilateral effort to succeed. The infrastructure exists through the Paris Agreement and the UN climate negotiations, but we need to remodel these processes to meet the urgency of the moment.

For example, COP decisions simply can’t be unanimous and be productive. We saw at COP30 how a handful of dissenting nations can derail action supported by a majority. COPs should give every country a voice, but not a veto. Likewise, national governments should be held to account not just for their emissions-reduction commitments, but whether they integrate NDCs into their economic policies. The COP process must also focus much more on finance and involve finance ministers in the conversation to ensure funding flows to the countries that need it most.

We must also recognize that COPs can’t do it alone. Actors outside the UN climate regime like cities, climate coalitions, BRICs and more wield tremendous power over economies. We need larger reforms to the entire financial system, including from multilateral development banks, trade policies and the private sector. We must support these actors while also better connecting them to the UN climate process.

3) Make climate action politically viable.

The economic transition to a low carbon future in any country cannot succeed without robust political support. The good news is that, done right, climate action is one of the best ways to improve people’s lives in the near-term. Yet it’s often perceived as contrary to economic growth and quality of life.

It’s the job of organizations like ours to be clear about solutions that deliver for people and the planet to change this narrative. As we’ve seen across countless cities and countries, action that’s good for climate and nature is fundamentally good for people. For example, London’s congestion pricing — a policy many initially doubted — has not only endured, but expanded over the last two decades. This isn’t because it’s reducing greenhouse gas emissions (though it is). It’s because it’s popular. The plan improves people’s lives — by reducing traffic, saving them time and making the air cleaner.

We need to ensure that all politicians and their constituents recognize the vast benefits to be seized through climate action now, not just in the future.

Keeping the Spirit of Paris Alive

A decade ago, many doubted whether world leaders could ever come together to form a climate pact. But it happened — through courage, cooperation and a calculation that it would enhance lives and economies.

As we look ahead to the next decade of climate action, decisionmakers must embrace the same spirit that forged the historic Paris Agreement in the first place. Doing so would bring the agreement’s goals — and a better future — within reach.