5 Near-term Decisions Will Affect the Ocean for Years to Come

The last year has been a consequential one for ocean conservation, as well as a reminder of how much work remains to protect the world’s largest ecosystem.

First, the good news:

Ocean conservation now features more prominently in national and international policies than ever before. For one, the High Seas Treaty (also known as the “BBNJ Agreement”) entered into force at the beginning of 2026, transforming years of negotiations into an operational framework for protecting and sustainably managing nearly two-thirds of the ocean. For the first time, countries agreed to establish marine protected areas in international waters and strengthen environmental governance across the high seas. Meanwhile, the EU launched its Ocean Pact to deliver healthier, more connected seas in Europe. A World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies entered into force, targeting harmful fishing practices. And more countries than ever before included ocean-based measures in their latest national climate plans, known as “nationally determined contributions,” or NDCs.

The recent Our Ocean Conference further boosted momentum. Held in Mombasa, Kenya in June 2026, the summit mobilized over $7.5 billion and 369 new commitments to make progress against the conference’s six themes.

These instances of progress are helping to reframe the ocean not just as a victim of exploitation, but as a viable source of solutions from energy security and economic competitiveness to food provision and climate resilience. Research finds that every $1 invested in the ocean yields at least $5 in benefits. For example, employment in ocean industries could grow by 51 million jobs over the next 20 years if we continue to invest in a sustainable ocean economy. “Blue food” production could sustainably grow by roughly 30-75% by mid-century, almost entirely from low-impact aquaculture and rebuilt fisheries. And expanding offshore renewable energy could provide the emissions-savings equivalent of taking 800 million gasoline-powered cars off the roads every year.

But at the same time, the ocean is sending out increasingly urgent warning signals. Ocean temperatures have steadily risen over the past five decades. The effects are visible in the form of greater sea level rise, ice melt, acidification, species death and more.  Meanwhile, unsustainable practices such as overfishing and widespread pollution continue to take their toll. Research finds that 35% of fish stocks are classified as overfished, and 19-23 million tonnes of plastic leaks into lakes, rivers and seas every year.

Maximizing the positive impacts of the ocean economy hinges on progress going further, faster. To that end, five near-term opportunities could offer crucial ocean wins:

1) A Meaningful Presence at the Next UN Climate Summit (COP31)

Climate negotiations have historically overlooked the ocean's role in delivering emissions reductions and building resilience. But with research finding that more than 90% of new NDCs submitted last year included at least one ocean-based action, this may finally be changing.

I co-authored a letter signed by more than 150 ocean experts, scientists and leaders calling for the next UN climate summit (COP31) to place the ocean at the center of the agenda. The letter highlighted the ocean’s vast current and potential contributions to halting and reversing climate change. For example, the ocean absorbs over 90% of excess heat and captures a quarter of global CO₂ emissions. Research shows ocean-based actions like offshore renewables and mangrove restoration can provide up to 35% of the emissions reductions needed to hold warming below 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), a critical threshold for human wellbeing.

Our letter called for six actions to yield a consequential outcome — from making ocean-climate solutions a core theme of the COP31 World Leaders Summit to integrating ocean priorities into negotiation texts on mitigation, adaptation, finance and more. These actions would ensure the ocean would get its best opportunity to deliver on its potential to tackle climate change.

The “pre-COP” in Fiji in October, alongside a leaders’ meeting in Tuvalu, will provide an early indication of whether governments are prepared to elevate the ocean from a side conversation to a core component of climate action.

2) Deliver the IMO’s Net-Zero Shipping Framework

If the shipping sector were a country, it would rank among the world's 10 largest greenhouse gas emitters. Shipping is therefore one of our greatest opportunities to cut emissions while strengthening global trade and even creating new sustainable “blue jobs.”

In 2025, governments approved the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework, committing to a mandatory marine fuel standard and carbon price for shipping. However, formal adoption was delayed for a year, leaving the sector with continued regulatory uncertainty. Even once formally adopted, the agreement will likely only deliver on a fraction of the emissions cuts needed to achieve the IMO’s own 2030 climate goals, which call for at least a 40% reduction of carbon emissions across international shipping by 2030.

Crucially, under the current draft, ships would only pay when they exceed certain emissions-intensity thresholds, with different penalty levels depending on performance rather than a universal carbon levy applied to every ton of greenhouse gas emissions. This approach not only weakens the economic incentive to switch away from fossil fuels, it also allows ships to continue using conventional fuels while paying relatively modest compliance costs.

With roughly 80% of global trade carried by sea, decarbonizing shipping is essential to curbing climate change without compromising economic growth. The IMO's framework is an important step forward, but governments must ensure it is ambitious enough to accelerate the transition to zero-emission shipping and send a clear market signal that the future of maritime transport is clean.

Success in 2026 would mean adopting a legally binding framework in December that closes the gap to the IMO’s 2030 targets, rewards first movers, raises sufficient revenue for a just clean energy transition, and gives fuel producers, ports and shipowners a credible investment signal.

3) An Ambitious Plastics Treaty

Plastic pollution is one of the most visible and pervasive signs of ocean degradation. Plastic has been found in even the deepest ocean trenches and in the tissues of marine animals. Producing plastics also fuels climate change, leaches chemicals and costs us money — about $75 billion per year in environmental damages.  Plastic pollution can deplete fish stocks, while plastic-littered beaches deter tourism.

Countries have met seven times since 2022 after the UN Environment Assembly adopted resolution 5/14, which requested that an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an ‘instrument’ to address the full lifecycle of plastic, from production to disposal. But they have yet to agree on an actionable treaty. Key sticking points center on the regulation of plastic production and the chemicals used, as well as whether solutions should be undertaken as a global or national approach.

While there has been progress to find compromises, the central question is whether governments can agree on a treaty that addresses the full plastics lifecycle. A treaty focused only on downstream waste management would leave the plastic “tap” running. While the next formal negotiations won’t happen until early 2027, an informal Heads of Delegation meeting will take place in Bangkok, Thailand in September. This gathering will be key to break the deadlock and rebuild consensus before formal negotiations resume.

4) Implement Biodiversity Commitments

It’s been nearly four years since countries adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Signatories agreed on goals for biodiversity conservation and restoration, including the much-publicized ‘30 by 30 agreement,’ where 196 countries committed to collectively conserve at least 30% of the world's land and ocean by 2030.

Since 2022, countries have been working to translate the agreement into national action. Already, more than 160 sets of national targets have been submitted and over 80 countries have updated their National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs). This is all captured in national progress reports, which a record 125 countries have submitted ahead of the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP17) taking place in October in Armenia.

COP17 will be the first major opportunity to assess collective progress under the Global Biodiversity Frameworkand identify where action must accelerate. The UN’s Global Report provides a detailed analysis of every target, including progress toward halting and reversing biodiversity loss as well as the gaps, pressures and challenges hindering momentum. 

For the ocean, this means moving beyond headline commitments to protect 30% of marine areas and asking harder questions: Are protected areas effectively managed, equitably governed and ecologically representative? Are countries restoring coastal ecosystems, reducing pressures from overfishing and pollution, and aligning biodiversity plans with climate and development strategies?

Success at COP17 will depend not on announcing new targets, but on strengthening implementation, closing the conservation finance gap and improving accountability.

5) National Sustainable Ocean Plans

The previous four opportunities depend on global agreements. Action within a country’s national waters is also needed.

Sustainable Ocean Plans  are a way for countries to turn global targets into coherent national action. They provide a framework to help different sectors and stakeholders — from fisheries, shipping and offshore energy, to coastal communities and Indigenous Peoples — align on a shared vision for ocean use. Sustainable Ocean Plans can help countries identify where conservation, economic development and climate action can reinforce one another while reducing conflicts between competing activities.

Momentum behind this approach is growing. More than 30 countries committed to 100% sustainable ocean management through initiatives such as the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy (Ocean Panel), the 100% Alliance and 8 Gulf of Guinea countries.  New initiatives are also emerging to provide technical and financial assistance to countries developing Sustainable Ocean Plans. These include Ocean Action 2030’s Rapid Assistance Fund and the Nippon Foundation’s new Sustainable Ocean Planning and Management platform, which was announced at an inaugural Island States Ocean Summit.

Yet wider uptake is necessary to ensure the ocean isn’t managed in silos. One example of where Sustainable Ocean Plans could have widespread impact is in the European Union, where the EU Commission is exploring ways to increase connectivity and holistic management of their waters. If the EU made Sustainable Ocean Plans a requirement for each coastal member state, improving governance and conflict resolution, achieving climate and biodiversity goals, coordinating across sea basins, and improving ocean monitoring would be well within reach.

Ramping Up Ocean Action

The coming months will determine whether governments can translate growing recognition of the ocean's value into concrete outcomes. Put simply, they must recognize the ocean as an essential part of solving global challenges — especially in the wake of food and energy pressures heightened by the war on Iran.

The ocean is a deep source of solutions that can improve livelihoods, strengthen resilience and support a more secure global economy. If leaders seize this moment, 2026 may be remembered as the year the world began treating the ocean not simply as something to protect, but as an essential partner in addressing the defining challenges we face today.