Countries have not yet committed to the collective emissions reductions needed to limit warming to the 1.5°C global goal. Recognizing this shortfall, policy discourse has increasingly called for the alignment of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with long-term objectives to hasten the just transition to net-zero. While countries have agreed that NDCs should align with long-term mitigation objectives — national net-zero targets, LT-LEDS and the global 1.5°C goal — NDC alignment with these three long-term objectives is complex, and what constitutes alignment has not been agreed upon.

As countries prepare their next-generation NDCs, due in 2025 – which should reflect their highest possible ambition — they should consider the alignment of mitigation commitments with net-zero targets, LT-LEDS and the global 1.5°C goal. Drawing on academic and policy literature, this Expert Note unpacks NDC alignment in the context of each objective, and provides recommendations for those designing next-generation NDCs and assessing their alignment.

This note focuses on NDC alignment with long-term mitigation objectives, while recognizing that NDCs and LT-LEDS also address adaptation, development, finance, and other issues.

Preview image by Robert Foster / Winrock International US AID / Flickr