Ocean climate solutions must feature prominently in the next round of countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Research highlights that the sustainable development of the ocean economy can deliver 35% of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions required to meet the 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) target of the Paris Agreement. In addition to curbing GHG emissions, sustainable ocean development also offers a wide array of adaptation and biodiversity benefits that support vulnerable populations and ecosystems.

Why the Ocean Economy Matters

Although historically the ocean was often viewed purely as a victim of climate change, in recent years we have come to understand the critical role that the ocean economy can play in fighting this global challenge. Promising developments within critical ocean sectors — including offshore wind (and other ocean renewable energy), green shipping and sustainable food production — can curb a substantial amount of GHG emissions. 

Full implementation of ocean-based climate solutions across seven key sectors could help close up to 35% of the emissions gap needed for a 1.5 degrees C pathway and up to 47% for a 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) pathway in 2050. This would amount to reducing emissions by 1 to 4 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per year in 2030, and by 4 to 14 gigatons of CO2e in 2050, compared to business-as-usual scenarios1. Fourteen gigatons of CO2e, specifically, is roughly equivalent to four times the total emissions of the 27 EU member states in 2021. 

In addition to reducing emissions, sustainable ocean economic development presents many other advantages. The most frequently cited include protecting and restoring blue carbon ecosystems, including mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass beds. These not only sequester and store more carbon per hectare than most ecosystems but also protect coasts from extreme weather events as well as providing food security for ocean-dependent communities. Furthermore, developing a sustainable ocean economy offers nations a pathway to diversify their economies, reduce overall economic exposure to climate risk and build capacity while creating jobs in new high-value sectors.

Opportunities through sustainable ocean economic development include:

Wind energy icon.
OCEAN-BASED RENEWABLE ENERGY:
Scaling ocean-based renewable energy, primarily offshore wind, and continuing to invest in bringing other clean energy sources, such as tidal power and floating solar, to commercial scale.
Ocean-based shipping.
OCEAN-BASED LOW-CARBON TRANSPORT:
Decarbonizing ocean-based transport across freight shipping in line with the revised GHG Strategy adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), including actions to increase operational and logistical efficiencies and through investments in zero-emission fuel technology and infrastructure.
Mussel icon.
SUSTAINABLE OCEAN-BASED FOOD:
Utilizing low-carbon ocean-based protein, such as unfed bivalves and sustainable aquaculture, including the production of marine plants, to reduce emissions from global food systems.
Offshore oil drilling.
PHASE-DOWN OF OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS EXPANSION:
Stopping the expansion of offshore oil and gas extraction, which should go hand in hand with a demand-led phase-down of current production, with planned transitions starting with the least energy-efficient and highest emission-intensity operations.
Mangrove tree.
MARINE CONSERVATION AND RESTORATION:
Expanding nature-based solutions, including the protection and restoration of mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass beds, to unlock the extensive benefits for people, nature and the climate.
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MARINE CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL:
Advancing research on marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) technologies as well as analyzing policy and governance considerations, such as environmental safeguards.
Cruise ship.
OCEAN-BASED TOURISM:
Decarbonizing ocean-based tourism and using technological advances in cruise vessel design to reduce energy consumption, as well as pollutants like sulfur oxides, nitrous oxides and particulate carbon that are harmful to marine ecosystems and human health. 

Recent Developments

More than 70% of NDCs submitted in the previous round include at least one ocean-based measure for mitigation and/or adaptation. Additionally, the first-ever Global Stocktake, which concluded at the 2023 UN climate summit (COP28) in Dubai, underscored the importance of strengthening ocean-based action and recognized the role of the UNFCCC Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue in facilitating it.

Commitments at the national level can also provide potential pathways for progress on the ocean and climate. For example, a national ocean climate-action plan can offer a potential framework for merging ambitions for the protection and restoration of ocean systems and the sustainable development of critical ocean economy sectors. Such plans, currently being developed by several countries, generally address at least three goals that are relevant globally:

  1. Advance the sustainable development of key ocean-based industries (e.g., offshore renewables, decarbonized maritime transport, decarbonized ocean-based food supply chains and mCDR) to reduce net emissions while securing energy access, global connectivity and food security.
  2. Harness the power of coastal and ocean ecosystems to absorb and store greenhouse gases, reduce exposure to climate hazards and protect coastal populations and settlements.
  3. Enhance community resilience to ocean change by developing ocean-based solutions that resolve vulnerabilities in national, local and informal economy sectors, helping communities adapt and thrive in a changing climate.

How to Incorporate Ocean-Related Targets in NDCs

In their new and updated NDCs, countries can strengthen or include targets in the following areas:

Offshore Oil and Gas

  • Countries should commit to halting new licensing for offshore oil and gas extraction and reviewing existing leases that are not yet operational with a view to withdrawing such leases as well as committing to banning routine flaring.

 Ocean-Based Renewable Energy

  • Countries should commit to establishing a stable economic and regulatory framework to stimulate investment and quickly deploy ocean-based energy systems (static and floating offshore wind, floating solar, wave and tidal) through public investment, concessional climate finance and the provision of financial support and guarantee schemes.

Ocean-Based Transport

  • Countries should commit to decarbonizing domestic shipping fleets and associated infrastructure to meet the net zero by 2050 target set by the IMO as well as regional plans to reduce the carbon intensity of trade.

Ocean-Based Food

  • Countries should commit to the decarbonization of discrete parts of the aquatic food value chain by transitioning to renewable energy sources and adopting low-carbon practices such as:

Marine Conservation and Restoration

  • Countries should commit to halting ecosystem loss and promoting science-based coastal restoration practices by providing pathways for securing tenure, ensuring stability through regulatory and policy predictability, and providing public funding to create the conditions required to attract private capital.

Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

  • Countries can develop domestic legal frameworks specific to mCDR that set regulatory standards to minimize harm and maximize equitable development.

Ocean-Based Tourism

Countries have diverse economic and social contexts, and the maturity or nascency of specific industries means that some of these NDC recommendations will be more appropriate or suitable in certain countries than others.

Additional Resources

 

Footnotes

1 Estimates are based on comparing multiple scenarios for annual emissions in 2023, 2030 and 2050, comparing ‘1.5°C’, ‘2°C’ and the ‘current policy’ scenarios from UNEP (2022) and calculating the mitigation needed to fill the gaps between the ‘current policy’ and the ‘1.5°C’ and ‘2°C’ scenarios, respectively.

 

Cover image by Nicholas Doherty/Unsplash