Opportunities for addressing Methane and Other Super Pollutants in NDCs

Halting climate change will require deep cuts not only in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but also in emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, including methane, black carbon, tropospheric ozone and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).  These short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), or “super pollutants,” are potent contributors to global warming, with a more significant short-term impact on temperature than CO2. About 45% of today’s net global warming is caused by human-driven methane emissions alone. Adequately addressing all super pollutants could mitigate over half a degree of warming by 2050. By including emission targets for super pollutants in their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs), countries could make considerable progress toward closing the global emissions gap and limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

Why Reducing Super Pollutants Matters

Though they make up a smaller share of global emissions than carbon dioxide, short-lived climate pollutants have an enormous impact on temperature rise. Each unit of methane, for example, has more than 80 times the warming power of CO2 over a 20-year period. Addressing super pollutants is therefore integral to the world’s climate response. By swiftly curbing these emissions through existing and cost-effective technologies, it is possible to avoid approximately 0.6°C of global temperature rise by 2050. This is a crucial step toward meeting the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C and avoiding the most severe impacts of climate change.

But the benefits of reducing super pollutants also extend beyond climate change, with opportunities to improve public health, food security and equity on a global scale.

Ground-level ozone, a byproduct of methane emissions, poses a significant human health risk by diminishing lung function and exacerbating respiratory conditions like asthma, which can ultimately lead to premature deaths. Moreover, black carbon and its co-pollutants contribute to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution, a leading environmental cause of poor health and premature deaths, with disproportionately higher negative impacts in low- and middle-income countries. Solutions to mitigate air pollution — such as prioritizing public transit and active travel networks — can both reduce health risks and alleviate economic burdens associated with healthcare costs and lost productivity, particularly in disadvantaged communities.

Reducing super pollutants is also essential for promoting food security and poverty reduction efforts. Ground-level ozone and black carbon can substantially reduce crop yields, threatening agricultural productivity and exacerbating food insecurity while also reducing farmers’ incomes. Implementing measures to reduce methane and black carbon emissions could potentially save 52 million metric tons of staple crops annually.

There are opportunities to reduce short-lived climate pollutants across many of the highest-emitting sectors, including agriculture, energy and waste (responsible for 40%, 35% and 20% of anthropogenic methane emissions, respectively). These solutions are often inexpensive, readily available, and can yield significant economic benefits, such as by enhancing agricultural productivity, reducing food waste, and increasing the efficiency of energy systems.

	Agriculture: Several food production methods can help reduce methane emissions at no expense or even lead to immediate savings. For instance, in Vietnam, farmers could increase their net income by over $100 per hectare by employing alternate wetting and drying techniques for rice farming, particularly when water is not subsidized. Additionally, enhancing feed quality improves animal health and boosts meat and dairy production while simultaneously reducing methane emissions.
	Waste: Around 20% of global anthropogenic methane emissions originate from the waste sector, primarily due to organic waste decomposition in landfills. Strategies that divert organic matter from landfills present a significant opportunity to reduce methane emissions, create jobs and foster a circular economy. Moreover, onsite landfill gas capture and energy generation can not only mitigate methane emissions, but also displace fossil fuels, generate revenue, lower energy costs, enhance local air quality and strengthen public-private partnerships; Ontario, Canada's efforts to collect and recover food and organic waste provide one successful example of this.
	Energy: The oil and gas industry accounts for more than one-third of global anthropogenic methane emissions, but there are cost-effective methods to mitigate these emissions while achieving economic benefits. These include detecting and fixing leaks in facilities, compressors and pipelines, as well as minimizing methane venting. The International Energy Agency suggests that around 40% of methane emissions could be reduced from fossil fuels at no net cost thanks to the savings they’d generate. In the United States, for instance, methane leaks from oil and gas systems cost an estimated $2 billion in 2015 alone. Effective regulations can help control flaring and venting while mandating leak repair.

Recent Developments

Recent years have seen several international initiatives supporting global mitigation action on short-lived climate pollutants. For example, the Global Methane Pledge which aims to reduce methane emissions 30% below 2020 levels by 2030 has been signed by over 150 countries, the Global Cooling Pledge launched at COP28 to reduce cooling related emissions by 68% by 2050, increase access to sustainable cooling by 2030, and increase the global average efficiency of new air conditioners by 50% has been signed by over 70 countries, and the World Bank launched the Global Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership (GFMR) to reduce methane emissions and flaring in developing countries. To support signatures of the Global Methane Pledge, the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) has worked with nearly 60 governments including the European Union to develop Methane Action Plans or Roadmaps for consistent and coordinated methane mitigation.

Many national governments still need to explicitly communicate their commitment to reducing SLCPs. As of 2023, 60% of NDCs include some form of methane abatement measures in agriculture, energy and waste but only 40 countries include a separate target or assessment of methane mitigation potential in their NDC. By setting separate targets for SLCPs in their NDCs, governments can increase economy-wide mitigation efforts and increase transparency and accountability in the process.

Several countries including Montenegro, Cameroon, and Benin, are leading the way by committing to transparent and substantive measures to address SLCPs:

• Montenegro communicated its intention to freeze HFC consumption in 2024.
• Cameroon intends for all major cities to have landfills with 70% methane capture facilities in place by 2035.
• Benin has provided a menu of measures in the energy sector that will lead to a 14% reduction in black carbon emissions by 2030.

How to Incorporate Targets for Super Pollutants in NDCs

In their next-generation NDCs, due early 2025, countries should include explicit quantified targets on SLCPs that are separate from their economy-wide GHG reduction targets. They could also go a step further, detailing sector-specific targets across all SLCP relevant sectors.

Countries can strengthen or include:

• Economy-wide SLCP targets reflecting more ambitious action to address all super-pollutant sources, but especially sources of methane.
• SLCP targets from other international processes (e.g. the Global Methane Pledge, the Global Food Declaration) or domestic policies.
• Ambitious, sector-specific, SLCP targets (for example, ‘reduce 30% of methane emissions from the agriculture sector by 2035’).
• Detailed baseline emission inventories for SLCPs, along with projections for future emissions under different scenarios, to provide a clear understanding of the scale of the challenge and the potential for emissions reductions.
• The co-benefits of SLCP emission reduction measures tied to climate change adaptation, air quality standards, SDGs, etc.
• Targets for the deployment and adoption of specific low-emission technologies and practices, such as methane capture and utilization systems, low-emission agricultural techniques and energy-efficient industrial processes.
• Policy instruments and mechanisms that will be used to achieve SLCP emissions reduction targets, such as carbon pricing, emissions trading schemes, subsidies for low-emission technologies, and regulations on emissions-intensive activities.
• Policies and actions for SLCPs in the forest and land-use sector focusing on improved forest governance and community forest management.
• Robust monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems to accurately track emissions of SLCPs.