NDC Opportunities in the Forest and Land-Use Sector

The forest and land-use sector (excluding agriculture) is responsible for approximately 10% of global net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, nature-based solutions — including the conservation, restoration and improved management of forests, peatlands, mangroves and grasslands — can transform the sector from a net source of emissions to a net sink. Protecting and restoring landscapes can also provide Indigenous Peoples and local communities who rely on them with a range of benefits, including boosting resilience to climate impacts and supporting sustainable development for populations that need it most.

Why the Forest and Land-Use Sector Matters

Conservation, restoration and improved management of forests and land are cost-effective solutions for reducing emissions and removing carbon from the atmosphere on a large scale. Together, the world’s forests, peatlands and mangroves store well over 1,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC) — more than 3 times the world's cumulative emissions from 1990 to 2021 (which totaled the equivalent of 360 GtC). Protecting them will therefore play a critical role in limiting global temperature rise. These ecosystems also perform a range of functions, such as evapotranspiration, that help regulate the weather and stabilize the climate.

On top of the potential to limit climate change, forest and land conservation, restoration and management also helps countries and communities adapt to climate impacts, such as storms and rising temperatures. And these actions can contribute to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including ending poverty and hunger, ensuring water availability and reducing disaster risks. For example, non-timber forest products can support millions of livelihoods; mangroves protect coastal lands against rising seas and tidal surges; and inland forests moderate temperature fluctuations and stabilize water supplies. 

However, large-scale clearing of forests, mangroves and peatlands is ongoing. In 2022 alone, 5.8 million hectares of forest were lost, an area larger than Croatia. Once released into the atmosphere, much of the carbon stored in these ecosystems would take centuries to be recovered.

There are significant emissions reduction and carbon removal opportunities in the forest and land-use sector that can simultaneously provide climate mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development benefits. Key opportunities include:

	Reducing forest, mangrove and peatland loss would deliver over half of the land-based mitigation needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) and provide other benefits such as job opportunities and increased food security. Mangroves, peatlands and tropical primary forests in particular are carbon dense ecosystems and protecting them can deliver large mitigation benefits. For example, each hectare of avoided mangrove forest loss is equivalent to mitigating 1,505 tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
	Reforesting and restoring high-carbon ecosystems can provide another 30% of the mitigation potential of land-based actions.These activities are among the most cost-effective ways to remove the carbon already in the atmosphere.
	Improving forest management, such as through reduced-impact logging methods, can also help reduce GHG emissions in forests, particularly in countries where forestry activities drive the majority of tree-cover loss.

Recent Developments

Since the last round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2020 and 2021, numerous new multilateral commitments and the first Global Stocktake have called for halting deforestation and degradation. 

For instance, at COP26 in 2021, more than 140 countries signed the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use, agreeing to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030. One year later at COP27, 26 countries and the European Union launched the Forests & Climate Leaders’ Partnership, reaffirming their commitment to deliver on the goals of the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration. Also in 2022, nearly 190 Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which commits signatories both to protecting at least 30% of the planet and to restoring another 30% of degraded ecosystems by 2030. However, to effectively deliver on these commitments, countries must set their own national targets for forest protection and restoration, such as through their NDCs.

How to Incorporate Forest and Land-Use Related Targets in NDCs

There are several targets and actions focused on forests and land use that countries can implement through their NDCs to boost economies, improve rural livelihoods, bolster climate resilience and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Countries can strengthen or include:  

• Economy-wide GHG targets reflecting ambitious abatement options in the forest and land-use sector.
• Ambitious GHG targets specifically for the forest and land-use sector, such as tonnes of CO2-equivalent net emissions reductions from the sector relative to the base year.
• Ambitious land use-related targets. For example, commitments to halt deforestation, conversion and degradation and increase ecosystem restoration.
• Ambitious targets on supportive actions that facilitate forest, mangrove and peatland conservation, restoration and management. These could include: total area of forest, mangroves and peatlands under legal protection; total area of forest under improved management; or total area with secured land tenure for Indigenous People and local communities. 
• Policies and actions that facilitate forest, mangrove and peatland conservation, restoration and management. For example: strengthening national conservation policies, including by aligning agricultural, development and environmental policies with conservation goals; improving forest governance – needed for effective enforcement of environmental regulations; scaling up and supporting community forest management; and strengthening Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ land tenure security.

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