Climate change is impacting food production across the world. Impacts such as changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, sea-level rise, and the increased frequency of extreme weather events is reducing crop and livestock productivity, and as a consequence, is also harming farmer's livelihoods. These impacts are likely to grow in the years ahead, placing global food and nutrition security and the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people at risk — especially in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. 

At the same time, the agriculture, forestry and land-use sector is the second-largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, so reining in emissions from this sector is crucial to limit global warming. By including a range of actions to curb emissions from the agricultural sector within their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), countries can play a critical role in preventing the most dangerous climate impacts and meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, all while improving food security.

Why the Agriculture Sector Matters

Agricultural production currently accounts for 11% of global GHG emissions. When including food-related emissions associated with land-use change and other sectors across the supply chain, total food-system emissions account for roughly one-third of global emissions.

Even if emissions from other sectors are successfully phased out immediately, food-related emissions alone, if left unchecked, are projected to exceed global targets to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). Ensuring food security and building a resilient agriculture system are also critical, especially given that 29% of the world’s population experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023.

Opportunities to cut emissions in the agriculture sector can also bring significant economic and social benefits, such as improved health and resilience, enhanced adaptation and better outcomes for farmers and livelihoods. Key opportunities include:

Better crop management (such as improved crop breeding, improved soil and water management, and planting existing cropland more frequently) can sustainably increase crop yields and help farmers cope with environmental constraints, including a changing climate.
Better livestock management (such as better feed, animal health care and breeding, and improved grazing practices) can support higher productivity and improve the livelihoods and resilience of livestock producers.
More sustainable production practices — including improving pastures for grazing; improving soil and water management; deploying agroecological practices such as agroforestry; and using lower-emissions practices and technologies — can restore degraded lands, improve soil health and reduce water stress.
More sustainable consumption measures such as reduced food loss and waste and shifts to healthier and more sustainable diets can save companies and families money, improve consumer health, and reduce the emissions released and land needed to produce food.

These actions are not exhaustive, but rather illustrative of the range of ways NDCs could address food-related emissions and impacts. Because conditions vary widely across geographies, societies and economies, NDCs should be carefully tailored to the unique characteristics of each country’s agriculture sector.

Recent Developments

Since the last round of NDCs were submitted in 2020 and 2021, world leaders have committed to a wave of new multilateral commitments intended to transform the food and agriculture sector.

At COP26 in 2021, over 140 countries signed the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use, pledging to implement and, if necessary, redesign agricultural policies and programs to incentivize sustainable agriculture, promote food security and benefit the environment, among other goals. And 150 countries joined the Global Methane Pledge, under which they agreed to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030 — a goal that will require significant changes across the agricultural sector.

Two years later at COP28, 134 countries signed the Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action to better integrate agriculture and food systems into their climate actions. Among other topics, this declaration outlines objectives focused on adaptation and resilience, food security and nutrition, supporting workers and livelihoods, and the maximizing the environmental benefits and reducing the harmful impacts of agriculture and food systems.

How to Incorporate Agriculture-Related Measures in NDCs

Compared to the first round of NDCs, more NDCs submitted as of January 2024 include agricultural mitigation measures. Current NDCs predominantly focus on supply-side measures addressing food production but lack demand-side measures (consumer-facing actions) to advance systemic transformation of the food and agriculture sector. Additionally, while data on adaptation-specific measures in NDCs are currently limited, adaptation measures are particularly important in the agricultural sector because they directly affect our ability to achieve food security and protect producer livelihoods in the face of intensifying climate impacts. While many measures such as agroforestry and reducing food loss and waste can provide both adaptation and mitigation benefits, the measures captured below were compiled with a focus on mitigation. There is an increasing emphasis on the need to incorporate additional agricultural adaptation measures such as strengthening early warning systems and crop diversification into climate strategies and actions.

There are many opportunities to enhance NDCs further by strengthening actions in the agriculture sector.

Countries can strengthen or include:

  • Economy-wide GHG targets reflecting ambitious abatement options in the agriculture sector.
  • Ambitious GHG targets for the agriculture sector (such as reducing agricultural carbon, methane and/or nitrous oxide emissions by a certain percentage from a base year by 2030 and 2035).
  • Quantitative non-GHG targets for the agriculture sector, such as:
    • Targets for better crop management (such as improved crop breeding, more efficient irrigation, better crop insurance or increased hectares of agroforestry).
    • Targets for better livestock management (such as improved livestock productivity, improved feed efficiency or increased hectares of improved management practices).
    • Targets for improved land management (such as installing renewable energy on farms, eliminating burning of agricultural residue or avoiding deforestation).
    • Targets for reducing food loss and waste across food supply chains (such as improving food storage and transportation to reduce post-harvest food losses or implementing policy and behavior change interventions to reduce household food waste).
    • Targets for adoption of healthy and sustainable dietary patterns (such as increasing diet diversification in low- and middle-income countries or reducing ruminant meat consumption in high-income and high-consuming countries).
  • Agriculture-related policies and actions linked to achievement of the above targets, such as:
  • Improving extension services for farmers, including more widespread use of digital services such as early warning systems and seasonal forecasts that help them prepare for extreme weather.
  • Redirecting agricultural subsidies and insurance programs to improve agricultural resilience, support sustainable farming practices and reduce emissions.
  • Instilling safeguard measures and rights-based approaches to improve equity and minimize harms to vulnerable or marginalized producers (such as smallholders, women farmers and Indigenous Peoples).
  • Strengthening measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) to credibly track and communicate mitigation and adaptation progress in the agriculture sector.
  • Linking agricultural improvements with efforts to protect and restore nearby natural ecosystems.
Additional Resources

 

Cover image by Chris Shervey/Flickr