War on Iran: Impacts, Recovery and Resilience
The ripple effects of the war on Iran stretch far and wide, with the conflict profoundly impacting the Middle East and disrupting food and energy systems around the globe.
WRI experts are analyzing how the war on Iran has disrupted individual countries and global supply chains. We aim to help policymakers and others navigate sweeping shocks to energy, food and water security while accelerating the shift toward long-term solutions that improve people’s lives and protect nature and the climate. Check this page regularly for updated articles, country briefs, events and more.
The war on Iran has left a devastating footprint across the Middle East. Military operations have killed thousands, displaced millions, and damaged homes and critical infrastructure including essential desalination plants.
The ripple effects of this crisis are also being felt worldwide. The months-long blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cut off a vital maritime artery responsible for the transit of 20% of global oil and gas and one-third of the world's fertilizer supply. This disruption triggered a dual crisis in energy and food security, driving oil prices above $100 per barrel and leaving agricultural hubs in Africa and Southeast Asia struggling with severe fertilizer shortages. Estimates suggest the conflict may have pushed 45 million people to acute hunger due to rising prices.
The conflict underscores the fragility that stems from fossil fuel dependence. As the recovery continues, it’s essential that countries work at home and collectively to bolster their resilience through diversified supply chains, greater use of renewable energy and sustainable farming practices.
This hub offers guidance for building more resilient food, energy and water systems. Check back regularly for new resources.
Featured Country Briefs
India and the Iran War: Potential Impacts of the Oil Price Shock | Faced with surging global oil and fertilizer prices, the Indian government is prioritizing inflation management by largely choosing to absorb the price shocks rather than pass costs to consumers. It cut excise duties on petrol and diesel, expanded fertilizer subsidies and intervened on the supply side through import diversification. Between March and May, these measures cost an estimated 140 billion Indian rupees ($1.5 billion) in lost fuel tax revenue and an additional 450 billion Indian rupees ($4.8 billion) in fertilizer subsidies.
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Mexico and the 2026 Iran War: Windfall profits consumed by fossil fuel subsidies | Mexico is a crude oil exporter and imports most of its gasoline and a significant share of its diesel from the United States. Therefore, it is not directly exposed to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and is benefiting from a fiscal windfall from higher global crude prices. Yet this windfall is not being used to improve the country’s fiscal position amid low GDP growth and high public debt. Instead, it is being largely consumed by fuel subsidies aimed at shielding consumers from the price shock, at a cost of approximately 5 billion pesos per week.
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Featured Event
During London Climate Action Week 2026, World Resources Institute organized "Fossil Fragility: Geopolitical Shocks, Security, and the Case for a Clean Energy Future". The event offered a rich examination of how countries are responding to energy insecurity, the downstream impacts on food and energy prices, and why clean energy offers a more resilient path forward. Speakers included Jayant Sinha, former Union Minister of State for Finance, India; Pedro Brancante, Head of Energy & Mining Affairs, Embassy of Brazil in Paris; Swati Dhingra, Professor at the London School of Economics and external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee; Julie Rozenberg, Chief Economist, World Resources Institute and Nick Robins, Senior Director, Finance and Private Sector, World Resources Institute (moderator).
