Publications
Resource Watch
Resource Watch provides trusted and timely data for a sustainable future.
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Leveraging Water Data in a Machine Learning–Based Model for Forecasting Violent Conflict
by , , , , and -We present a methodology to forecast conflict (defined as organized violence resulting in at least 10 fatalities over a 12-month period) up to a year in advance using a random forest model. When applied to test data, the model captures 86 percent of future conflicts. The model’s conflict signal...
