Next Generation NDCs

Next Generation NDCs: Taking a Leap Forward in Climate Action

By early 2025, countries are due to unveil new national climate commitments, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). NDCs are the main vehicle for countries to collectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions and halt climate change. These commitments form the foundation of the Paris Agreement, establishing targets that countries promise to implement and be measured against as they work toward global goals to limit temperature rise and build resilience to climate impacts.

The Paris Agreement requires Parties to put forward new NDCs every five years, and each round of commitments must be stronger than the last.

Why It's Crucial for Countries to Submit Ambitious NDCs in 2025

The targets outlined in countries’ current NDCs fall far short of what’s needed to rein in the climate crisis. Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — the limit scientists say can avert increasingly widespread and devastating impacts of climate change. Current commitments put the world on track for a catastrophic 2.5-2.9 degrees C (4.5-5.2 degrees F) of warming.

Moreover, recent research shows that climate impacts are already happening faster and with more severe consequences than previously thought. This underscores the urgent need to slash emissions, scale up adaptation efforts and significantly increase investment in climate action.

Recent developments since the last round of NDCs could change how countries approach the next one. For example, over 100 countries have now committed to reaching net-zero emissions by about mid-century. The new round of NDCs will extend through 2035: the middle point between when most countries started implementing their NDCs in 2020 and when many have pledged to reach net zero, in 2050. This makes them crucial for aligning short-term actions with long-term goals.

New NDCs should also reflect the outcomes of the 2023 Global Stocktake on climate action from COP28, which urged countries to shift away from fossil fuels, scale up renewable energy, deploy zero-emissions vehicles and more.

The good news is that cost-effective climate solutions are now readily available. Electric vehicles have become cost-competitive with fossil fuel-powered cars in many markets and are projected to reach 23% of the market by 2025. Zero-carbon energy technologies, such as solar and wind power, are mature and widely commercialized. The costs of renewable energy and complementary energy storage technologies continue to plummet at remarkable rates. This represents unprecedented progress in the right direction. But the world needs to see more ambition and faster action across every sector to deliver its shared goals on time.

The Many Benefits of Strong NDCs

Beyond the urgency of addressing the climate crisis, countries will benefit in many other ways from committing to ambitious NDCs. These commitments signal the direction of travel to local governments and the private sector and can help drive greener finance flows and behaviors throughout society. They also provide an important opportunity to align climate action with just transitions and the global Sustainable Development Goals. NDCs can help bolster local economies, support decent employment and increase food security, all while working toward a low-carbon future. 

A Five-Point Plan for Next Generation NDCs

By 2030, the world needs to shift to a radically different pathway to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C and ultimately reach net-zero carbon emissions around mid-century. The NDCs that countries submit by 2025 — which should set new targets for 2035 as well as stronger 2030 targets — will show in black and white whether the world will slash emissions quickly enough to get there.

WRI’s five-point plan for next-generation NDCs offers a blueprint for success: 

1. Setting ambitious emissions reduction targets aligned with net-zero goals.
2. Accelerating sectoral transformations.
3. Building resilience across all systems.
4. Catalyzing investment in low-carbon solutions and adaptation.
5. Putting people at the center of all climate action.

By embracing these principles in their new and updated NDCs, countries can not only help avoid the devastating impacts of climate change, but also unlock a cleaner, safer and healthier future for all. Read more. 

What Emissions Reduction Targets Should Countries Aim for in Their NDCs?

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, human-caused emissions — like those from fossil-fueled vehicles and power plants — must be cut almost in half by 2030 and reduced 60% by 2035 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C.

Every fraction of a degree matters, meaning countries' NDCs should reflect the highest possible ambition in their emissions targets. While rapid GHG reductions are the topmost priority, reaching net zero will ultimately require that remaining residual emissions are balanced with an equivalent amount of carbon removal, both through natural and technological approaches.

Developed countries — historically the world’s largest emitters — should set the most ambitious emissions reduction targets to help accelerate progress toward the world’s collective goals. But all countries must go much further, and every NDC should include specific targets for non-CO2 greenhouse gases, such as methane.

Explore sector-specific targets, policies and measures countries could include in their next-generation NDCs here.

Aligning 2025 NDCs with Long-term Strategies

In addition to their NDCs, the Paris Agreement invites countries to submit mid-century long-term low GHG emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) or "long-term-strategies." These documents — which lay out countries’ broader visions for achieving a low-carbon economy by 2050 while pursuing sustainable development — can help inform and guide the near-term action in countries’ NDCs.

Recent COP decisions have increasingly emphasized the need to align NDCs with long-term strategies as well as with national net-zero targets and global temperature goals. At COP28, countries were invited to submit their long-term climate strategies (or updates to existing strategies) by November 2024 — and to align the emissions reduction targets in their NDCs with actions needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C.

This is a complex task, as there’s a lack of agreement about what constitutes “alignment” of NDCs with other long-term goals. To help further these discussions, WRI published an expert note unpacking some of the most important considerations. It highlights five key pieces of information needed to demonstrate alignment:

1. Transparent near-term and net-zero/long-term targets, following established guidance.
2. An economy-wide emissions trajectory through the long-term target year (recognizing that more distant target years are subject to greater uncertainty), as well as assumptions about what happens after the target year through 2100.
3. Emissions targets for 2030 and 2035 based on the emissions trajectory.
4. Underlying technology, policy and financial plans (and any related sectoral targets) that support the emissions pathway.
5. Information about how the pathway is within the country’s fair share of the global carbon budget, and how the country is addressing any conflict between its fair share and other critical considerations.

_{Cover image by Rob Arnold / Alamy Stock Photo}