Next Generation NDCs

In 2025, countries are due to unveil new national climate commitments, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). NDCs are the main vehicle for countries to collectively reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and halt climate change. They form the foundation of the Paris Agreement, establishing targets that countries promise to implement and be measured against as they work toward global goals to limit temperature rise and build resilience to climate impacts.

The Paris Agreement requires Parties to put forward new NDCs every five years. Each round of commitments must be stronger than the last.

Why It's Crucial for Countries to Submit Ambitious NDCs in 2025

Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and ideally 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — limits scientists say can avert increasingly widespread and devastating climate impacts. At the time, the world was on track for nearly 4 degrees C (7.2 degrees F) of warming. Thanks to previous NDCs and countries’ efforts to implement them, we’re now on track for about 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F).

While this marks undeniable progress, 3 degrees C of warming is still exceedingly dangerous. And recent research shows that climate impacts are already happening faster and with more severe consequences than previously thought. This underscores the urgent need to slash emissions, scale up adaptation efforts and significantly increase investment in climate action.

The 2025 NDC cycle offers a chance to get the world on a safer path at the pace needed. This new round of NDCs will set emissions-reduction targets through 2035 — the mid-point between when most countries started implementing their NDCs in 2020 and when many have pledged to reach net zero, in 2050. This makes the new commitments crucial for aligning short-term actions with long-term goals.

New NDCs are also meant to reflect the outcomes of the 2023 Global Stocktake from COP28, which urged countries to shift away from fossil fuels, scale up renewable energy, deploy zero-emissions vehicles and more.

NDC Tracker

WRI’s Climate Watch platform tracks and evaluates new NDCs as they are submitted. While the plans put forward so far represent a step in the right direction, they still fall short of the ambition needed to keep the Paris Agreement goals within reach.

But this is only part of the picture: over 170 countries are expected to release new national climate commitments in 2025, with plans from major players like China, the EU and India still forthcoming. A key checkpoint comes ahead of the United Nations General Assembly in September, when NDCs will be reviewed by the UN in a synthesis report.

Learn more about the new NDCs submitted so far

The Many Benefits of Strong NDCs

Beyond the urgency of addressing the climate crisis, countries will benefit in many other ways from committing to ambitious NDCs. These commitments signal the direction of travel to local governments and the private sector and can help drive greener finance flows and behaviors throughout society. They also provide an important opportunity to align climate action with just transitions and the global Sustainable Development Goals. NDCs can help bolster local economies, support decent employment and increase food security, all while working toward a low-carbon future. 

A Five-Point Plan for Next Generation NDCs

The world needs to shift to a radically different pathway to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C and ultimately reach net-zero emissions around midcentury. The next few years are critical. The NDCs that countries submit in 2025 — which should set new targets for 2035 as well as stronger 2030 targets — will show in black and white whether the world will slash emissions quickly enough to get there.

WRI’s five-point plan for next-generation NDCs offers a blueprint for success: 

1. Setting ambitious emissions-reduction targets aligned with net-zero goals.
2. Accelerating sectoral transformations.
3. Building resilience across all systems.
4. Catalyzing investment in low-carbon solutions and adaptation.
5. Putting people at the center of all climate action.

By embracing these principles in their new and updated NDCs, countries can not only help avoid the devastating impacts of climate change, but also unlock a cleaner, safer and healthier future for all. Read more. 

What Emissions-Reduction Targets Should Countries Aim for in Their NDCs?

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human-caused emissions — like those from fossil-fueled vehicles and power plants — must be cut almost in half by 2030 and reduced 60% by 2035 (compared to 2019 levels) to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C.

Every fraction of a degree matters, meaning countries' NDCs should reflect the highest possible ambition in their emissions targets. While rapid GHG reductions are the topmost priority, reaching net zero will ultimately require that remaining residual emissions are balanced with an equivalent amount of carbon removal, both through natural and technological approaches.

Developed countries — historically the world’s largest emitters — should set the most ambitious emissions-reduction targets to help accelerate progress toward the world’s collective goals. But all countries must go much further, and every NDC should include specific targets for non-CO2 greenhouse gases, such as methane.

Explore sector-specific targets, policies and measures countries could include in their next-generation NDCs here.

Aligning 2025 NDCs with Long-Term Strategies

In addition to their NDCs, the Paris Agreement invites countries to submit long-term low GHG emissions development strategies, also known as “LT-LEDS" or "long-term-strategies." These documents lay out countries’ broader visions for achieving a low-carbon economy by 2050 while also pursuing sustainable development. As such, they can help inform and guide the near-term actions in countries’ NDCs.

Recent COP decisions have increasingly emphasized the need to align NDCs with long-term strategies as well as with national net-zero targets and global temperature goals. At COP28, countries were invited to submit their long-term climate strategies (or updates to existing strategies) by November 2024. They were also urged to align the emissions-reduction targets in their NDCs with actions needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C.

This is a complex task, as there’s a lack of agreement about what constitutes “alignment” of NDCs with other long-term goals. To help further these discussions, WRI published an expert note unpacking some of the most important considerations. It highlights five key pieces of information needed to demonstrate alignment:

1. Transparent near-term and net-zero/long-term targets, following established guidance.
2. An economy-wide emissions trajectory through the long-term target year (recognizing that more distant target years are subject to greater uncertainty), as well as assumptions about what happens after the target year through 2100.
3. Emissions targets for 2030 and 2035 based on the emissions trajectory.
4. Underlying technology, policy and financial plans (and any related sectoral targets) that support the emissions pathway.
5. Information about whether the pathway is within the country’s fair share of the global carbon budget, and how the country is addressing any conflict between its fair share and other critical considerations.