WRI Stories Feed: World Resources Report

Adaptation in COP17 Durban: Opportunities for Clarity and Consolidation

Heather McGray — Sat, 26 Nov 2011 17:11:07 -0500

The Cancun Adaptation Framework agreed during COP16 provides potential for a new action orientation to adaptation under the UNFCCC. COP17 in Durban presents a big opportunity to resolve several critical pieces of the Cancun Adaptation Framework,…

Making Effective Decisions in a Changing Climate

Manish Bapna — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 09:15:11 -0400

This piece originally appeared on the Bangkok Post website.

A third of Thailand is under water. Epic…

World Resources Report: Decision Making in a Changing Climate

Manish Bapna — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 13:36:26 -0400

This post is based on the foreword to World Resources: Decision Making in a Changing Climate, co-signed by Helen Clark (UNDP), Achim Steiner…

RELEASE: Climate Change Demands New Decision-Making Strategies by National Leaders

Michael Oko — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 20:24:25 -0400

WRI, UNDP, UNEP and World Bank release major report: Decision Making in a Changing Climate

In light of recent extreme weather events, as well as long-term disruptions related to climate change, a major new report calls for different approaches to decision making by national leaders. The report, entitled Decision Making in a Changing Climate, explores challenges and offers recommendations for national-level government officials to make informed and effective decisions to respond to the changing climate. The report, produced by the World Resources Institute, UNDP, UNEP, and the World Bank, is the latest edition of the influential World Resources Report.

“Climate change is a vast, complex, and urgent issue for national leaders. What’s clear beyond doubt is that the decisions leaders make today will have a profound effect on their countries’ ability to find real, lasting solutions to adapt to this global crisis,” said Manish Bapna, Interim President, the World Resources Institute. “This report provides decision makers with concepts and information they need – drawn from real world experiences – to make smart choices and ensure that decision making is effective and durable in the light of these challenges.”

The challenges of climate change are made clear by the array of recent extreme weather events from massive droughts in the Horn of Africa to record rainfall in the United States to wildfires in Brazil. According to the global insurance company, Munich Re, there were more than 950 natural disasters in 2010, 90 percent of which were weather related, costing a total of at least $130 billion.

“Climate change is not solely an environmental issue. It is an issue that needs to be taken into account in order to ensure that human development is sustainable over the long term” said Olav Kjorven, Director of the Bureau for Development Policy at UNDP. “Governments must start now to incorporate climate risks into plans and policies across all sectors, including urban development, coastal planning, agriculture, water and forestry management, and electricity production.”

Drawing on input from over 100 experts in over 35 countries, the report includes 12 case studies of innovative, real world responses to climate change, such as wildfire management in Brazil, information sharing on agriculture in Mali and glacial flood management in Nepal. These countries demonstrate how some are rising to the challenge of adapting to climate change.

Yet, adaptation efforts worldwide are still failing to meet the challenge.

“Under present trends, the livelihoods of millions of farmers in Africa, and other people around the world, could be lost due to shifting hydrological patterns, higher temperatures and more extreme weather events,” said Andrew Steer, World Bank Special Envoy for Climate Change. “This doesn’t need to happen. Good policies for climate resilience and low-carbon development can be put in place at reasonable cost. The good news is that many developing countries in Africa and elsewhere are taking action to do just that.”

The report identifies key challenges to decision making, including:

While the pace of climate change is accelerating, there is great uncertainty about how some impacts— such as changing precipitation patterns and sea level rise — will unfold around the world;
Climate change impacts will not play out on a level playing field; some people are more vulnerable than others; and
Climate change demands tough, but transformational changes, especially when faced with choices between short-term and long-term allocation of resources.

The report offers a suite of tools and recommendations for national-level policy makers. These include: tailoring adaptation efforts to address uneven vulnerability among populations, incorporating strategies to balance both short- and long-term policy objectives, and planning for uncertainty and a longer time horizon when making decisions. Important considerations include: early and ongoing public engagement, access to information, effective institutional design, allocation of resources, and appropriate policy tools.

“National, regional and local governments, businesses, and civil society are already making decisions to make the transition to a climate resilient, low-carbon future and build the green economies of the twenty-first century,” says Kaveh Zahedi, Coordinator of UNEP’s Climate Change Program. “This report shows that smart adaptation investments, such as those in climate resilient agriculture in China, mangrove restoration in Vietnam, and watershed management in Rwanda, deliver multiple benefits from food security to coastline protection to improved energy supply and ultimately help build the resilience of communities that are most vulnerable to climate change.”

Decision Making in a Changing Climate is the 13th edition of the World Resources Report, a series that has been published over a 25 year period.

The full report, including the executive summary, individual case studies, and expert papers can be found here.

ADVISORY: Press Teleconference on Decision Making in a Changing Climate

Michael Oko — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 12:34:36 -0400

Global Partners to Launch Major New Report on Climate Adaptation

In the face of extreme weather events and other environmental changes related to climate change, international partners are releasing: Decision Making in a Changing Climate, the latest edition of the World Resources Report. The report, by the World Resources Institute, UNDP, UNEP and the World Bank, focuses on climate change adaptation and decisions by national leaders with a focus on developing countries. The report will be launched via a press teleconference on Tuesday, October 18, 2011, at 9:00 a.m. ET.

From massive droughts in the Horn of Africa to record rainfall in the United States to wildfires in Brazil demonstrate, the world is witnessing the types of challenges national leaders face in adapting to climate change. According to global insurance company, Munich Re, there were more than 950 natural disasters in 2010, 90 percent of which were weather-related, costing a total of at least $130 billion.

The report draws on real-world case studies from Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Indonesia, Mali, Mongolia, Namibia, Nepal, Rwanda, South Africa, and Vietnam.

The press call is open to international media and will feature remarks and a two-way Q&A session with media.

WHAT
Launch of the World Resources Report 2010-2011: Decision Making in a Changing Climate

WHO
Manish Bapna, Interim President, World Resources Institute
Olav Kjørven, Director of the Bureau for Development Policy, UNDP
Andrew Steer, Special Envoy for Climate Change, World Bank Group (from South Africa)
Kaveh Zahedi, Coordinator, Climate Change Program, UNEP

WHEN
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
9:00 a.m. ET
Note: Media should call-in 5-10 minutes prior to the start time

WHERE
To participate, media should dial:
United States: (888) 942-9261
International: + (415) 228-4959
Conference code: WRR

For more information, contact: Michael Oko, Tel. +(202) 729-7684; moko@wri.org

Learning Lessons from Wildfires, from Texas to Brazil

Kelly Levin — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 11:03:45 -0400

This post was written with James Anderson, Communications Coordinator at the World Resources Institute.

“This is unprecedented fire…

Report from Bangladesh: Turning Local Adaptation Lessons into National Policy

Heather McGray — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 16:29:13 -0400

How can national policies support communities to adapt to climate change?

Across the globe, citizens are working together to safeguard their communities from troubling trends associated with climate change. On the islands of Papua New Guinea, coastal villagers have planted mangroves to stabilize eroding beaches. Along the rivers of Bangladesh, farmers cultivate floating gardens that can withstand the region’s frequent floods. In the semi-arid zones of Rajasthan in India, farmers keep track of the changes in their local weather, and work together to decide how best to manage the shifting risks to their crops. These locally driven innovations – and many, many more – are part of an emerging movement known as “community-based adaptation.”

Recently in Dhaka, Bangladesh, WRI – together with over thirty other organizations – co-sponsored the Fifth International Conference on Community-based Adaptation. Nearly three hundred people attended from around the world, bringing with them stories, strategies, and challenges to inform the theme of the conference: how can we “scale up” community-based adaptation efforts?

WRI hosted a panel session on a central question for scaling up local initiatives: how can national policies best support community-based adaptation efforts? While local people must play the leading role in community-based adaptation, national level law, policy, investment and institutional arrangements can play an important facilitating or enabling role.

For example, national policies can create incentives for communities to undertake adaptation, or they may provide resources for community use in adaptation initiatives. National government programs may gather ideas from community-led pilot projects and replicate them through larger initiatives. On the other hand, outdated or maladaptive national initiatives can stifle adaptation or lead to perverse outcomes.

Over 100 people attended WRI’s panel to hear stories and recommendations from five speakers. Two panelists provided government perspectives. Mrs. Nahau Rooney, Climate Change Chair of the Manus Provincial Government in Papua New Guinea (PNG) described “PNG Vision 2050,” the nation’s over-arching development strategy, which includes adaptation to climate change as one of its seven “pillars.” Under this pillar, provinces like Manus have developed provincial adaptation strategies that include community projects like the mangrove planting mentioned above.

Mr. Legesse Gebremeskel, of Ethiopia’s Federal Environmental Protection Authority, shared a similar story: as part of its national adaptation planning process, Ethiopia piloted a participatory regional planning process in the Afar region that included local-level planning for adaptation to climate change. Lessons from Afar have provided a model for other regions within the country.

From Plan International, panelist Dr. Nick Hall presented on the importance of children’s participation in adaptation initiatives. Children face unique threats from climate change; studies have shown that they bear 88 percent of the disease burden of climate change. They also can play important roles as agents of change, sometimes taking the lead, ahead of their parents, in actions to reduce disaster risk. Dr. Hall called on climate change policymakers to scale up community-based adaptation by investing in education and by utilizing school systems as a channel for adaptation action.

Mr. Jeremiah Mushosho from ZERO Regional Environmental Organization described a set of linked research, advocacy and training activities that his organization has led in Zimbabwe. He stressed the importance of civil society as an agent for bringing adaptation ideas and lessons from the community level up to national decision-makers and to the public at large. He emphasized ZERO’s experience working through NGO networks and through training initiatives for members of the media.

The final panelist, Dr. Arivudai Nambi, shared lessons from the capacity-building work of the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF), which helped establish community-based weather centers in Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh states in India. Farmers have used the weather data gathered to develop “rules of thumb” for when to plant, irrigate, and apply fertilizer, based on local climatic conditions. They are well-placed to adjust these rules as the climate changes, based on their own direct engagement in the local weather centers and in management of the information the centers produce.

Moreover, MSSRF’s advocacy work at the national level has led India’s Ministry of Agriculture to agree, in principle, to support the development of similar local weather centers in villages across the country. MSSRF has also hosted national policy dialogues to share their findings with ministry officials, and have worked actively on the development of official state adaptation action plans.

During the Q&A phase of the WRI panel, much discussion focused on the advocacy process, including methods and strategies for getting lessons on adaptation from the community level to influence national policy. Panelists highlighted the importance of the media in this process, as well as the need for advocacy to be built into a community-based project from the very start. Several panelists suggested taking the view that community-based adaptation is always an experiment, with the aim of drawing lessons that provide a basis for advocacy, which should lead to scaling up through the policy context.

When asked what one action national governments should prioritize in order to scale up community-based adaptation, panelists gave a diverse set of recommendations, including:

Nick Hall: Listen to children.
Jeremiah Mushosho: Enact a national adaptation policy.
Arivudai Nambi: Implement extension programs that spread community lessons on adaptation.
Legasse Gebremeskel: Build awareness and commitment on climate change among national officials.
Nahau Rooney: Include province and local adaptation activities in national budgets.

The panel session ended with many audience hands in the air and many remaining issues to discuss. To further explore the many issues raised, WRI will follow up on the panel by working with others from the conference to develop a book chapter addressing national action to support community-based adaptation.

Heather McGray is Senior Associate for Vulnerability and Adaptation in WRI’s Climate and Energy Program, and served as facilitator for the session in Dhaka. Together with Research Analyst Aarjan Dixit, whose also blogged from Bangladesh, she designed the session and recruited speakers. Funding from the Dutch and Swedish governments enabled WRI to serve as a co-sponsor of the CBA5 Conference and to support attendance by several developing country participants.

Ghana and Vietnam Scenarios Foreshadow How Decisions on Climate Adaptation Are Made

Philip Angell — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 11:43:25 -0400

Scenario exercises look at the how and why of decision-making for climate change.

From private corporations to the military, a host of institutions use scenario exercises as a way to prepare for different possible futures. Given the many risks and uncertainties associated with rising global temperatures – from extreme weather events to changing seasons, to long term sea level rise – they can also play a valuable role in climate adaptation planning.

Ghana: Drought or Abundance?

Take Ghana. Between now and 2050, predictions suggest that yearly rainfall in the West African country could plummet to 60% less than it is today or increase by as much as 49%. Given such uncertainty between scarcity and abundance, how can the government decide how to manage future water supplies and agricultural development? How should national ministries plan for a key sector like hydroelectricity generation?

This very question was addressed in a scenario exercise for senior Ghanaian officials and community and business leaders, organized recently by the World Resources Report and the Massachusetts-based Consensus Building Institute. Held in Accra, in partnership with UNDP and the Ghanaian Energy Commission, the simulation took two dozen participants to imaginary Suna, a developing country in West Africa.

In the Ghana exercise, participants had to decide whether or not to build a dam, given vast uncertainty over future rainfall patterns. Although the situation was fictionalized, the problem is quite real for decision makers in many parts of the world. Photo credit: WRI

Groups were asked to decide, in light of future uncertainties, whether to move forward with a major new dam, decide at a later date, or cancel the project. A worst case scenario gave about a 10% chance that decreased future rainfall would make the costly dam essentially useless. Yet all the groups agreed to go ahead.

Vietnam: Preparing for Sea Level Rise

A second World Resources Report scenario was held for senior government officials and donor representatives in Vietnam, which faces significant impact from sea level rise over coming decades.

Participants at the event, sponsored by Can Tho University, played the roles of stakeholders in the fictional country of Rinsap who were asked to recommend adaptation priorities to the prime minister. Participants weighed options including investments in protective infrastructure, mangrove restoration, new agricultural technologies and techniques, and diversification of rural livelihoods. In exploring these trade-offs, participants discussed issues such as food security and economic development in the face of farmland inundation.

Two of four groups prioritized investment in new technologies to develop strains of rice and other crops that would thrive under climate change. The other groups made infrastructure their first priority. Building dikes and levees - for “protecting people and production” as one person put it – was seen as the foundation of future economic development. Restoring coastal mangrove forests was viewed as a complementary long-term response, to help protect dikes and levees.

Scenarios and Decision-Making

So what do the results tell us about adaptation decision making in developing countries? While being wary of catch-all conclusions, the World Resources Report team observed the following:

Meeting basic needs is the key priority for most governments in developing countries and climate adaptation is not viewed as part of this equation.
Developing countries see climate change adaptation as a cost, not a benefit, and this colors their planning and decision making.
Long term climate risks are widely discounted or dismissed as “yet another study.”
A key challenge for aid agencies and donors is to create incentives for adaptation to become critical to national planning and policy.

The World Resources Report scenarios were designed to provide insights into how adaptation decisions are made that could provide useful for other countries, as well as to give participants experience in scenario planning for their own national needs. They are part of a broad, transparent research agenda that also includes case studies and expert papers and will be synthesized in a report to be published by the World Resources Institute, UNDP, UNEP and World Bank.

For more on the WRR Scenario Exercises, click here.

Towards a Climate Safe Common Future

Mon, 28 Feb 2011 14:07:53 -0500

The two defining challenges of this century are climate change and poverty. Our challenge is to find a way to deal with both, at the same time.

This piece originally appeared on the World Resources Report website.

The most important challenge for today’s political leaders is to safeguard the human environment so that our species can survive on this planet. I think the following three points are particularly relevant for any leader wanting to strike a balance between the pressing needs of today and the decisions necessary to secure our long term survival.

1. Base your policies on sound scientific knowledge

In my professional and political life, I have always wanted to build on the principle learned first from my father, who had a profound influence on me. He was a medical doctor who imprinted on me the importance of having a scientific and rational basis for opinions and actions. As I became a medical doctor myself, my resolve to base my opinions and actions on the best available evidence grew even stronger. So, first of all, we need to build evidence, and strengthen the knowledge base on which we depend when making decisions.

It is so important to couple state of the art scientific knowledge with strong political commitment. Science must be translated into political action to be of relevance to society.

At the same time, we must never overlook how important it is to couple state of the art scientific knowledge with strong political commitment. Science must be translated into political action to be of relevance to society. This is true for gender equality, health policies, environmental policies and climate policy. Ideology and values play an important role when we set our goals. But when it comes to deciding on what we should do to reach them, they have to be inspired by sound scientific knowledge. And we must never forget that it is always cheaper to prevent than to cure, whether we focus on people or societies. Therefore, mitigation remains the best adaptation policy.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established 22 years ago, has provided increasingly robust scientific information on the causes, the impacts and the solutions related to climate change. They point out that the warming of the globe may reach 5-6 degrees by the end of this century if no action is taken. This would be devastating and totally unsustainable. According to the IPCC we must reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases to a fraction of what they are today by 2050 to succeed in staying below 2 degrees temperature rise.

In a fair and sustainable world, greenhouse gas emissions in all countries will tend to converge towards the same level, per capita, in the long run. This should be recognised by all country leaders, and they should start working towards it. This would show the spirit of responsibility so clearly needed in order to ensure a climate safe, common future.

2. Seek global cooperation

Visit the World Resources Report website for more information on decision-making in a changing climate.

The challenge of climate change is not a question that can be left to the Minister of the Environment to deal with. As the most important issue facing any country, it has to be dealt with at the highest levels of government. And international cooperation is needed in order to achieve results.

Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) contribute to climate change. The effects are not primarily local, as with other forms of pollution, but are felt globally. Emissions in Australia on the other side of the globe are just as detrimental to climate in Norway as are local emissions in Scandinavia. No issue better demonstrates the need for global cooperation than climate change.

In order to deal with the challenge of climate change, a climate agreement will need to include most countries of the world, cover all major sources of emissions of GHG, and include concrete and long term climate goals in line with the recommendations of the IPCC.

It may be challenging to translate scientific results into practical policies on the domestic scene. It is even more challenging to reach an evidence-based agreement among nearly 200 countries. Especially when the measures to be taken come with a price tag and the distribution of initial costs has to be decided upon to reach an agreement. Distributing costs is difficult, even if we know they will continue to spiral if we do not agree. But this is precisely what we must do.

3. National and global redistribution is needed

This is a classic case of market failure. There is no price, no cost involved for the individual emitter, even though emissions result in the entire human race paying the ultimate price.

Why do human beings destroy their planet by emitting unsustainable levels of GHGs? The reason is that this is a classic case of market failure. There is no price, no cost involved for the individual emitter, even though emissions result in the entire human race paying the ultimate price. What we need to do is to make pollution bad business. The key is to put a price on emissions. We need to secure cooperation between developed and developing countries on public regulation to correct this market failure.

What will have to happen first is that developed countries must demonstrate in concrete terms that low-carbon growth is possible. If the rich countries, who have filled up the atmosphere with CO2, and who are in possession of more resources than the developing countries, do not switch to a low-carbon economy, they cannot ask developing countries to do so either.

Once developed countries have demonstrated that low-carbon growth is technically feasible and economically viable, they must do what it takes to make low carbon growth the cheapest and preferred path to development for developing countries.

In the face of starvation and misery, growth and development tend to take precedence over almost all other considerations. Only when low carbon growth also comes across as the low cost way to development, can we expect poor countries to make sustainable and green choices.

The two defining challenges of this century are climate change and poverty. Our challenge is to find a way to deal with both, at the same time. We need to see rapid and broad based economic development happening alongside substantial reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases.

The financial crisis has started even former free market champions thinking about the merits of redistribution, both within countries and between countries. They realise that it is not a good idea after all to have a system where one small group gets very rich, and willing to take ever more risks, by lending more and more to the larger group which gets poorer and poorer.

We live in times when it is particularly important to avoid bad investment decisions. My best advice is: whatever you do, make sure it contributes to the sustainable, low-carbon economy we will need in order to survive and thrive on planet earth in the future. Otherwise you will be wasting your money.

Gro Harlem Brundtland is a Special Envoy on Climate Change for the UN Secretary-General and former prime minister of Norway.

Climate Adaptation: Can Developing Countries Prepare for a Hotter Tomorrow?

Manish Bapna — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 13:41:04 -0500

As well as urgently cutting emissions, nations everywhere need to take steps to adapt to a very different world.

Over the past year, the world has witnessed weather events on four continents so extreme that they stretch the limits of modern human experience.

Last summer’s flooding in Pakistan inundated one fifth of the country and affected 20 million people. The record Moscow heat wave led to more than 10,000 deaths, widespread peat bog and forest fires, and the loss of a third of Russia’s grain crop, driving up food prices worldwide. 2011 has already witnessed flooding in Eastern Australia that submerged an area the size of France and Germany combined, followed by the most powerful cyclone to hit the country in almost a century. In Brazil, New Year floods combined with mudslides triggered the nation’s deadliest natural disaster on record.

Visit the World Resources Report website for more information on decision-making in a changing climate.

It is too early to tell whether these extreme events are directly caused by human-induced climate change. What is not in dispute is that they are consistent with the broad scientific consensus that links a changing climate with more extreme events and more severe climatic cycles. Equally indisputably, the world is quickly moving towards a much hotter tomorrow.

Global average surface temperature in 2010 tied as the warmest on record. According to NOAA, it also took the honors as the wettest year since records began; a development in line with models that predict that warmer temperatures will increase precipitation. The world has witnessed 0.8˚C (1.5˚F) of warming since 1880, resulting already in significant changes to physical, hydrological and ecological systems. Yet man-made climate change has barely begun to bite. According to a recent UNEP assessment, by 2100, the world can expect global average temperature rises between 2.5˚C and 5˚C (4.5˚F-9˚F) over pre-industrial levels even if all the greenhouse gas emissions cuts pledged by countries in the UN climate negotiations are fulfilled. If these pledges are not honored, warming will be even greater.

The message for governments is clear. As well as urgently cutting emissions, nations everywhere need to take steps to adapt to a very different world. Such steps will require a fundamental shift in how most governments currently plan for climate-related impacts. Not only must we improve our ability to react to extreme weather events, and other climate-related surprises. Just as important, we must proactively prepare countries for new variations in local climate (such as altered monsoon patterns) and long-term changes (such as sea level rise) the combined impacts of which could affect vast populations.

It is imperative that governments start now to incorporate climate risks into plans and policies in sectors such as urban development, coastal planning, agriculture, water and forestry management, and electricity production. If they don’t, major investments by governments and donors may be wasted or quickly become obsolete. And the world’s most vulnerable and resource-poor societies will miss critical opportunities to become more climate-resilient. In Pakistan, for example, hundreds of millions of dollars worth of development investments were swept away in the floodwaters.

So how specifically should planners and policy makers go about incorporating climate risks into their decisions? Human society historically has not been good at forward-looking, proactive decision making. We are slow to react to, learn from, and foresee change.

While natural disasters grab the headlines, some countries are pioneering ways to plan for both short- and long-term climate risks.

Yet encouragingly, while natural disasters grab the headlines, below the radar some countries are pioneering ways to plan for both short- and long-term climate risks. Over the past year, the World Resources Report, produced by the World Resources Institute with the UN Development Programme, UN Environment Programme, and the World Bank, has engaged leaders in developing countries to learn about such efforts.

Important lessons are emerging, with governments using innovative policies and pilot projects to learn which interventions can effectively address different climate risks and how to catalyze such action.

Bangladesh has begun to move from disaster relief to disaster preparedness, developing pioneering early warning systems. When Cyclone SIDR battered Bangladesh in 2007, these helped keep the death toll to about 3,400 people, compared with an estimated 140,000 who perished in a 1991 cyclone of similar magnitude.
Vietnam is investing more than US$100m in mangrove restoration to protect coastal towns in anticipation of climate-induced flooding. State-owned plantations have been coupled with new schools, health clinics and roads, as well as forest leases for villagers, to promote acceptance.
In drought-plagued Mali, the national meteorological service transmits seasonal rainfall and soil moisture data to farmers teaching them to interpret the information to manage their crops, with yields and incomes rising in pilot areas.

It is no accident that these initiatives are taking root in poor countries with the most to lose from the many impacts climate change will throw at humanity. Indeed, the developing world, out of necessity, may lead the way in learning to live with a warming planet.