Inside Moon Palace, COP-16, Cancun, Mexico, Dec 10, 2010. Photo credit: Michael OkoAs the climate talks in Cancun head into the final days, the conference has taken on a different tone.
The casual side events and informal conversations have given way to serious discussions and intense negotiations. Ministers and their delegations are in meetings – working through the issues and debating the “texts” (the actual language of a potential agreement). Advocates from various NGOs are engaged, pushing for progress and helping broker solutions.
I spent most of the day in the Moon Palace, the main conference center, working along a row of tables with fellow colleagues from around the world. Information trickled along slowly– news reports popping up and people occasionally leaning over to ask the question of the day: “Have you heard anything?
The reality is that it’s hard to get a firm read on how things are going. One moment someone comes out of a room shaking his head. Then another emerges talking about progress on a key element of a deal. People move quickly, talk in low voices, and return to the negotiating rooms.
There have been a few signs of signs of tangible progress as well. Yesterday, there was nearly a deal on REDD+ – which may not please everyone, but would mark progress on a key piece of the overall puzzle. Today, Jairam Ramesh, India’s environmental minister, announced that India could enter into a “legally binding agreement” though, like many things here, his message was nuanced. Brazil also had some upbeat remarks , as Luiz Alberto Figueiredo Machado, the nation’s climate envoy, said, “Parties are engaging. I am very hopeful that we will get to a good outcome tomorrow.”
On the other hand, Japan’s position around the Kyoto Protocol continues to be an impediment to progress. Despite calls from world leaders, Japan is holding firm that it will not enter into a second commitment of the Kyoto Protocol (the first commitment period is set to expire in 2012). Finding a solution to this issue, including a way to resolve Japan’s concerns, will be a key over the final hours.
Another critical issue, climate finance, continues to play a major role in the overall scenario— and groups are working hard to find a solution or at least to identify a pathway forward. One colleague told me that there’s general excitement about setting up a climate fund, but the details are proving to be difficult to work out. This is another item to watch.
As the day wears on, people hunker down. Ministers and negotiators appear in hallways and then dart back into meetings. Reporters hover over their computers, blackberries and iPhones. In a somewhat surreal moment, Daryl Hannah (star of 1980s films Splash and Blade Runner), walks by— she’s here in Cancun to lend her voice to the issue.
Day turns to night, and people continue to wonder if the international community will be able to make enough progress to show that it can take on the challenge of climate change. At this point, no one is making predictions. The only sure bet is that we’re heading for a couple of long days and nights before we know the answer.
Michael Oko, Director, Strategic Communications & Mediamoko@wri.org+1 (202) 729-7684follow on twitterMichael is the Director of Strategic Communications & Media at the World Resources Institute, where he oversees media engagement and communications in the United States and globally to advance the organization’s goals of protecting the earth and improving people’s lives.
8 Comments
This is very serious, hope
This is very serious, hope is fading fast on this critical issue,
The delegates have a fast disappearing chance to unite, put aside their petty differencs and realize their common goal before it is too late.
To secure another free vacation at a nice resort next year!
Intense debates rage over where to get lunch, who does the best lobster, and whether there are any brothels left in town not fully booked up right now....
Global warming is past being
Global warming is past being merely debunked, it's a subject of satire for most scientifically literate people.- and wishful thinking for all those suffering record cold and snow. (which the conference has had to move south to avoid this year)
The only thing being intensely debated here is how to make the most out of a last ditch effort to con other countries/people out of money and competitive advantage (not like politicians!). That and where to go for lunch, since many know this is the last free vacation they are likely to get out of this scheme!
Thinking that global warming
Thinking that global warming isn’t real is itself wishful thinking. Does Guybrush have any evidence to support his/her views, or is this just made up?
There have been several investigations into the climate science controversies from last year, relating to the stolen emails from the University of East Anglia, and some of the sources cited in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. Overall, the investigations cleared the scientists of wrong-doing, and reaffirm the integrity of their research findings. A summary of the investigations is here.
Subject of satire? Every survey I’ve seen has shown that the public supports regulation to address global warming by healthy margins. Global warming as a policy priority consistently polls even with energy and the economy, and often much higher. Here is a summary of some recent surveys, but there are many more.
Actually, the burden of
Actually, the burden of proof lies with those pushing the theory. You can't prove a negative. Otherwise the Flying Spaghetti Monster is real until you can prove that it isn't.
Having said that there is certainly plenty evidence to the contrary, to name a few;
DEC 2009 the 2nd greatest global snow cover on record (Rutgers)
The only observed correlation between Atmos. Co2 and temp in billions of years of Earth's climate is that changes in temp. drive changes in Co2 with a lag time of about 800-900 years
The Ordovician ice age had 4400 ppm Co2
Surveys to support regulation/energy policy/taxes etc etc- you are proving the point- those are political policy questions that go far beyond global warming.
Ask simply and directly where global warming itself ranks as a concern and it's dead last.
The University and IPCC both cleared themselves of wrongdoing!!?? and 'restored' their own credibility to themselves?!
You're right, I was so wrong to ever doubt them!
Again, evidence would be
Again, evidence would be helpful:
Don’t make the common mistake of confusing weather and climate. Snow is merely precipitation, and while 2009 was snowy, global temperatures still rose. In fact, greater snow is consistent with global warming.
The supposed lag time with respect to CO2 levels and temperature, and the question of CO2 concentration levels in the Ordovacian, have both been addressed by climate scientists that know what they are talking about (see here and here). These are both legitimate questions, but they both have scientifically sound answers.
I simply disagree with you on where the burden of proof lies. There is a large body of peer reviewed science into global warming, which provides positive proof that temperatures are increasing with strong correlations to human-generated CO2 concentrations. There have been many claims that the science is bogus, and specious counter-arguments (like snow), but not much solid research to support them.
I’m not sure what surveys you’re talking about since you don’t cite any. You assert that “most scientifically literate people” don’t consider global warming to be a legitimate problem. Can you support that? As you say, you can’t prove a negative.
Co2 Temp correlation since
Co2 Temp correlation since the industrial age..
Flatly no. Simply no statsitically significant correlation whatsoever.
correlation does not equal causation- regardless of the suspension of disbelief required where
we have a record of global ave. temps accurate to within a fraction of a degree going back over 100 years!
Think of any two statistics you can chart- make them as unconnected as you possibly can;
The chances that both will end higher or both will end lower are 50%
Not only does this not prove causal correlation, it does not even hint at it.
Again the only significant causal correlation ever observed in billions of years of Earth's history
is that temp drives atmos Co2. This alone is fairly compelling evidence that the opposite cannot happen
to any great degree as this would represent a runaway feedback loop that existed long before prosperous economies.
No amount of political institutionalized consensus trumps scientific method. (esp. from disgraced IPCC, CRU, GIS etc)
Einsten, Galileo and Darwin would all advise you against that!
Re. The Ordovician Solar
Re. The Ordovician Solar output.
I like this one, 500 ppm is catastrophic but 4400 didn't do squat because solar output was lower.
OK sounds good, but by how much? 4%... OK some like to 'round that up' to 5%
And the evil Co2 was how much higher? 1100%
Yet a relatively small solar variation utterly overwhelmed a massive Co2 variation?
Interesting, almost as if Co2 isn't a very potent driver of climate compared with other natural variations?
The Ordovician is just one nice example, but look at any geological scale chart of Co2 and temps and
you have to have a very creative imagination to spot any consistent correlation there...
Again the last million years data is very clear, you don't need a politician to 'interpret' that data for you-
Co2 lags temp very clearly and consistently by 8-900 years
Global warming caused record
Global warming caused record global snow!
OK this is the sort of reasoning that puts global warming dead last in the polls!
http://www.heartland.org/environmentandclimate-news.org/arti...
Couple of holes in this plot that you could drive a Mack truck through;
1. GLOBAL SNOW COVER, not snow depth!
i.e. its' not the amount of precip, it’s the fact that so much of that precip was frozen where it is normally too warm!
2. If record cold, snow can be considered possible evidence of global warming, then by the same rationale, record heat, drought can also be considered possible evidence of global cooling.
I'm sure MSM wil remind us of that next heat wave right!?
3. record snow was not the prediction, in the UK, the prediction was that children would grow up having never seen snow. The 'global warming causes record snow' theory has only suddenly sprung up there during 3 years of record snow!
4. The albedo effect. where more warmth= less snow= less reflection= more warmth ;
was one of the key infamous feedback loops required to multiply an infinitesimal direct warming into a Hollywood disaster story. record snow shows decisively that this feedback loop is not occurring
Greater global snow cover simply flies in the face of global warming, no amount of desperate spinning can get around that.