WRI Publications Feed: Climate, Energy & Transport

Sustainable Urban Transport in India: Role of the Auto-rickshaw Sector

Kevin Lustig — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 09:50:16 -0500

Demand for the Auto-rickshaw

Study Objective and Approach

As the demand for urban transport increases in India, so too does the popularity of the autorickshaw. Production of this type of motorized three-wheeler has doubled between 2003 and 2010. In major Indian cities, it is responsible for a significant share of motorized trips. Strategies to improve urban transport must include a policy vision for this increasingly important sector. To that end, this paper examines the role the auto-rickshaw sector can play in promoting sustainable urban transport in India. It develops a policy vision for this sector and presents recommendations on reforms to address sustainability challenges.

The Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI) framework, one of the key approaches to promote sustainable urban transport, is the basis of this study. The ASI framework is based on three key strategies: (1) avoid unnecessary trips, (2) shift to more sustainable transport modes, and (3) improve performance in all modes (Dalkmann and Brannigan 2007). In assessing the role of the auto-rickshaw sector in promoting sustainable urban transport, this paper looks specifically at how auto-rickshaws can contribute to Shift and Improve strategies, using a two-pronged approach:

Examination of the role of the type of service (contract carriage) provided by auto-rickshaws in promoting sustainable urban transport, as part of the Shift strategy;
Assessment of the need for improvements in the type of vehicle (motorized three-wheeler) in the auto-rickshaw sector to promote sustainable urban transport, as part of the Improve strategy.

Role of Auto-rickshaw Sector in Promoting Sustainable Urban Transport

Role of the Type of Service (Contract Carriage)

The findings from this study indicate that auto-rickshaw services in cities can help meet the objectives of the Shift strategy—of promoting public transport and reducing private motorization—based on the following aspects:

First and last mile connectivity to public transport: Auto-rickshaw services, integrated as a feeder mode providing such connectivity, can complement public transport systems by ensuring that all parts of the city have easy access to public transport stations.
Door-to-door transport alternative to private motor vehicles: The door-to-door on-demand service provided by auto-rickshaws will ensure that transport needs requiring door-to-door connectivity, such as occasional trips to the airport or emergency trips for health care, can be met in cities without having to rely on private motor vehicles.

Vehicle Performance and Need for Improvements

This paper assesses the performance of the motorized three-wheeler (auto-rickshaw) in Indian cities with respect to two important sustainability parameters—emissions and road safety—to identify current challenges and areas for vehicle-related reforms that can improve performance:

Emissions: A key challenge in the autorickshaw sector is its emissions of particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 microns (PM10). PM10 are known to have adverse impacts on health, and the conventional two-stroke engine auto-rickshaws prevalent in many cities are major sources of these emissions (Shah and Iyer 2004).
Road Safety: The paper looks at the impact of the auto-rickshaw sector on the safety of both city pedestrians and the rickshaws’ occupants (driver and passengers). Research conducted by EMBARQ India using pedestrian fatality data for Mumbai and Bangalore shows that autorickshaws lead to fewer fatal pedestrian accidents than do motorized two-wheelers and cars. This is likely a result of their lower speeds and lighter weights (Mohan and Roy 2003). There are concerns for the safety of auto-rickshaw occupants, however, particularly in multivehicle collisions (ones between auto-rickshaws and other motor vehicles). A study of auto-rickshaw injury patterns in Hyderabad revealed that multivehicle collisions were the leading cause of injury for auto-rickshaw occupants (Schmucker et al. 2009).

The Way Forward for the Autorickshaw Sector in Indian Cities

Policy Vision

The National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP) of the Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India, is the key guiding policy at the national level focusing on urban transport in India (MoUD 2006). With the underlying rationale of people-based transport planning, the NUTP framework focuses on planning and investments in public transport and nonmotorized transport (NMT) systems in cities.

To meet the objectives of the NUTP, the findings from this study highlight the need for an overarching policy vision for the auto-rickshaw sector in urban transport (Figure E.1) based on the Shift and Improve strategies of the ASI framework to promote sustainable urban transport.

Reform Needs and Next Steps

In accordance with the policy vision, the following regulatory and vehicle-related reforms will help ensure that the auto-rickshaw sector supports public transport and provides alternatives to private vehicles, while addressing the sustainability challenges of emissions and road safety:

Ensure Availability of Dispatch Services: Auto-rickshaw services in the majority of Indian cities are provided by individual owner-operators rather than by fleet companies. The lack of organization makes it difficult to provide dispatch (dial-a-rickshaw) services. This needs to be addressed through regulatory reforms that enable fleet-based operations with dispatch services to enter the auto-rickshaw sector.
- These regulatory reforms should be pursued by State transport departments, which are the nodal regulatory agencies for the auto-rickshaw sector.
Reduce Emissions: Findings from this study highlight that improvements in engine technology (moving from two-stroke to four-stroke engines) is potentially the best approach to reduce PM10 emissions from the auto-rickshaw sector. Four-stroke engines have lower PM10, hydrocarbon (HC), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions than two-stroke engines (Shah and Iyer 2004). Further, four-stroke engines can reduce PM10 emissions by running on compressed natural gas (CNG) and other alternatives to gasoline (Reynolds, Grieshop and Kandlikar, 2011). However, higher oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions from four-stroke engines need to be addressed through reforms in current emission standards.
- The engine and fuel-related reforms should be pursued by State transport departments as the nodal regulatory agencies.
- The needed reforms in emission standards are the adoption of separate emission standards for HC and NOx emissions, instead of the current combined (HC + NOx) standard. These reforms should be pursued by the Standing Committee on Implementation of Emissions Legislation set up by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) for emissions legislation (SIAM 2011b).
Improve Road Safety: Vehicle design improvements such as seat belts and padding on stiff surfaces (Schmucker et al. 2009) have been noted as key reform needs to improve occupant safety in multivehicle collisions. Further, infrastructure interventions such as dedicated lanes for auto-rickshaws, narrow lanes, and speed tables on urban roads to reduce average speeds will reduce the risk of occurrence of multivehicle collisions.
- Vehicle design improvements, through reforms in current motor vehicle safety regulations, should be pursued by the Automotive Industry Standards Committee (AISC) (SIAM 2011b) set up by MoRTH for motor vehicle safety regulations.
- Infrastructure interventions to improve autorickshaw occupant safety should be pursued by City governments as part of their citywide road safety enhancement strategies.

Testimony: China's Prospects for Shale Gas and Implications for the U.S.

Maggie Barron — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 09:51:49 -0500

Testimony Of Sarah M. Forbes
Senior Associate, Climate and Energy Program
World Resources Institute

HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION

CHINA’S GLOBAL QUEST FOR RESOURCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES; CHINA’S PROSPECTS FOR SHALE GAS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE U.S.

Introduction

Good morning and thank you for the opportunity to contribute to the deliberations of this Commission. My name is Sarah Forbes, and I am a Senior Associate for the Climate and Energy Program at the World Resources Institute. I am also manager of the World Resources Institute’s Shale Gas Initiative.

I am delighted to speak with you today about China’s prospects for shale gas and the implications for the United States. The United States and China share an interest in the domestic and international development of shale gas resources. In this testimony I will describe the state of China’s shale gas industry as well as the governmental policies that will drive its future development in China. I will discuss the implications of U.S.-China business-to-business partnerships as well as government-to-government cooperation―including the risks and opportunities such cooperation could yield. I will also describe how shale gas development in China and the United States changes the global dynamics of energy security. In conclusion, I will provide recommendations for future actions Congress and this Commission can take. In the interest of time, I have limited the scope of my testimony to a discussion of the implications of shale gas development in China on the U.S. and China.

Considering the speed with which shale gas has shifted the U.S. energy outlook1, this is an important moment to consider the implications of the development of China’s shale gas resources. Development of shale gas in China will shift future global energy dynamics. How it is done will affect the environment and global climate picture. As I describe in this testimony, shale gas can help improve international energy security by providing an abundant domestic energy resource and reducing the need for natural gas imports. What role it plays in addressing climate change will depend in large part on the degree to which shale gas displaces inefficient coal plants and supplements continued improvements in energy efficiency and renewable energy.

As I start, I would like to emphasize the following key points, which I will describe in detail in the sections that follow.

1. Current state and future direction of China’s shale gas industry: The shale gas industry in China is in early development, but the topic has already garnered significant interest from the national government. The Chinese government is implementing new policies that support the future development of China’s gas industry broadly, as well as supporting shale gas research. State-owned and provincial-owned enterprises are conducting exploration and pilot demonstrations on shale gas in China. Through its state-owned enterprises, China2 is also investing in shale gas development in the United States.

2. U.S.-China cooperation on shale gas: The global oil and gas industry operates joint ventures (JVs) to sustain growth and defuse financial risk. The emerging international shale gas industry will rely on the same tactics, particularly given the current state of the global economy. In recent years, major investments or partnerships between U.S. and Chinese companies in the shale gas sector have been used to the near-term economic benefit of both countries and provide potential for U.S. companies to benefit domestically and abroad.

3. Impacts on the energy situation in China: Shale gas development in China will reduce natural gas imports, thus improving China’s energy security. Because total natural gas demand will continue to far outstrip all domestic production for the foreseeable future, any natural gas from shale in China is expected to be consumed domestically. From an environmental perspective, the more China can develop energy alternatives to imported oil and domestic coal, the less pressure it exerts on global energy markets and the global environment. China’s domestic use of its own natural gas resources would be unlikely to have an effect on net U.S. energy imports, as the U.S. is projected to domestically produce sufficient quantities of natural gas to meet its own demand for at least the next 25 years.

Throughout my testimony, I will also emphasize a fourth point that cross-cuts these three themes.

4. Ensuring responsible operations and creating a “level playing field”: Shale gas development should proceed in China (or any country) with environmentally and socially responsible operations which are (1) enforced by appropriate laws, regulations, and standards, (2) realized through implementation of international best practices, and (3) based on an understanding of the real risks and benefits of responsible deployment (both to industry and the public). Such approaches drive demand for U.S. products and ensure a “level playing field” between companies operating in the United States and those in China. More importantly, they help ensure that any negative environmental impacts associated with shale gas development in the United States are not repeated elsewhere.

Read the full testimony here >>> (PDF, 10 pages, 454 Kb)

Ready or Not: Assessing National Institutional Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation

Kevin Lustig — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 09:44:07 -0500

Summary

Effective institutions are at the heart of our ability to respond to growing climate risks. Governments and other institutions at the national level can play a critical role in increasing society’s capacity to adjust and readjust (i.e., “adaptive capacity”) as conditions shift and as new climate change knowledge emerges.
As national policymakers, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiators, international funders, and others develop methods and guidelines for adaptation planning, it is critical that they include a focus on building institutional capacity to adapt to climate change impacts.
The NAC framework provides a practical approach for understanding the institutional aspects of adaptive capacity. NAC assessments support planning through the development of indicators and targets for tracking national adaptation progress and the identification of capacity gaps that can be filled through investment and action.
The NAC framework assesses national institutions’ abilities to perform assessment, prioritization, coordination, information management, and climate risk management for adaptation at a particular period in time. This assessment can help planners, funders, and other decision makers identify key activities to track over time, as well as critical players to engage.
The pilot applications of the framework in Bolivia, Ireland, and Nepal suggest that the NAC framework applies across a range of countries and that it can be tailored to specific country contexts. The pilots used the NAC framework in the following ways:
- As a tool for developing indicators for monitoring and baseline setting. The NAC assessment in Bolivia resulted in the development of specific indicators and metrics for adaptation policy.
- As a tool to catalyze action and fill key capacity gaps. The Irish NAC assessment identified gaps in capacity to build the evidence base for justifying new investments. It also inspired the commission of a national vulnerability assessment.
- As a tool to gather and synthesize resources. The NAC framework can provide a practical organizing frame for sorting a diverse and often scattered body of adaptationrelevant information and resources. This proved particularly useful in Nepal and Bolivia.
The country teams that applied the NAC framework in Bolivia, Ireland, and Nepal used distinctly different approaches to completing the assessment and also formatted their evaluation findings differently. This indicates that the NAC framework can be tailored for use in a variety of different planning or evaluation processes.

Fact Sheet: EPA Mercury Rules and Power Reliability

Kevin Lustig — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 10:30:45 -0500

Recent Electricity Reliability Assessments

North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). (November 2011) 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment.

M.J. Bradley & Associates, LLC; Analysis Group. (November 2011) Ensuring a Clean, Modern Electric Generating Fleet while Maintaining Electric System Reliability; Fall 2011 Update.

DOE. (December 2011) Resource Adequacy Implications of Forthcoming EPA Air Quality Regulations.

Bipartisan Policy Center. (June 2011) Environmental Regulation and Electric System Reliability.

CERES. (November 2011) New Jobs-Cleaner Air Part II: An investment in American Businesses and American Jobs.

Edison Electric Institute. (January 2011) Potential Impacts of Environmental Regulation on the U.S. Generation Fleet.

Electricity generation capacity adequacy and transmission and ancillary services reliability are difficult to quantify and forecast due to the inherently local scale of power flow modeling. However, the lack of reliability problems over decades of previous Clean Air Act regulation and the flexibility of the standards suggest that the U.S. can keep the lights on while cost effectively removing toxic pollutants from power plant emissions.

Power plants are the largest source of mercury emissions to the air. This mercury eventually makes its way into water, and can cause neurological problems for people who eat contaminated seafood. Because of the dangers of mercury emissions, especially to children and pregnant women, a court order mandated that the EPA issue a final set of Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) by December 16, 2011.

Recent modeling assessments have typically focused more broadly on the cumulative impacts of EPA regulations, including: the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), the Coal Combustion Residuals rule, the 316 (b) Cooling Water Intake Structures rule, and the yet-to-be announced New Source Performance Standards for greenhouse gases. Recent studies have varied largely based on assumptions regarding the stringency of pending regulations, the costs of compliance measures, and the legal flexibility of regulatory enforcement.

Rules Are Flexible, and States Are Prepared

While there are modeling and forecasting limits for assessing long-term electricity system reliability, recent studies indicate that MATS and other EPA rules can be effective and implemented in a timely way while allowing for a range of compliance outcomes. The feasibility of cost-effectively complying with new regulations while maintaining electricity system reliability is supported by four key points:

Both state and federal regulators have a suite of flexible enforcement options, which they have been using for decades, to delay power plant closures when this is necessary to preserve grid reliability; for example, the Cooling Water rule requires states to first consider reliability in implementing new regulations;
While states often have the authority to set more protective pollution control standards in the interest of public health and welfare, there is no evidence that they would do so at the risk of grid reliability. Many states have already exercised this authority without imperiling electricity reliability — as of 2011, 17 states have already imposed rules on mercury and other toxic emissions from power plants, including Montana;
Adequate new plant capacity is in the pipeline to replace the majority of potentially affected power plants; most American power companies are on record as already having prepared for expected environmental regulations;
In terms of compliance, the MATS rule allows for temporal and technological flexibility. As this fact sheet goes to press, the final rule has not yet been published but is expected to allow three years for compliance, with an optional 4th year extension from the EPA or additional security-based extension from the President. A wide range of commercially viable, proven compliance technologies from Flue Gas Desulphurization (FGD) to Dry Sorbent Injection (DSI) and Activated Carbon Injection (ACI) are available to help reduce toxic air emissions and can be installed in 10 to 30 months, providing ample time for America’s skilled engineers, manufactures and technicians to conduct plant upgrades within the legally allotted time frame.

Download the fact sheet to keep reading and see full citations.

Inside Stories on Climate Compatible Development: China

Kevin Lustig — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 09:48:27 -0500

Key messages

A clear expression of political will, backed by a set of effective policy measures, has been key to China’s success in building the world’s largest wind power market.
The establishment of a stable and favorable pricing mechanism is crucial for the development of wind power, because it increases the chances for profitability and growth.
A strong domestic market contributes to the growth of local wind power equipment manufacturing.

Inside Stories on Climate Compatible Development: Niger

Kevin Lustig — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 09:42:26 -0500

Key messages

Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration brings increased crop yields, income and food security to impoverished rural communities in Niger. It also holds climate change mitigation potential.
Honouring local wisdom is key to the success of Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration – farmers can play a central role in experimenting, innovating, communicating potential benefits, and advocating behaviour change.
Winning the support of opinion leaders and authorities is important in tackling farmers’ initial resistance

Inside Stories on Climate Compatible Development: Zambia

Kevin Lustig — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 09:26:40 -0500

Key messages

Production of staple crops, such as maize, is under increasing risk in Africa because of climate change and depleting soil fertility. The potential consequences for food security are dire. Climate change and food security must be tackled together.
Modern methods of agroforestry and “conservation agriculture with trees” are employing age-old indigenous practices of natural fertilisation with dramatic effects. Field studies show that growing maize under “fertiliser trees” can more than triple the yields.
“Evergreen agriculture” practices (where trees are intercropped in annual food crop and livestock systems) help retain water in soils during droughts and prevent landslides and erosion during heavy rain, so reduce vulnerability to climate extremes.
The capacity for these practices to also retain and store carbon in soils means that the potential climate change mitigation benefits of wide-scale evergreen agriculture in Africa are large and globally significant – potentially up to 50 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide over 50 years.
The challenge of spreading the knowledge and uptake of evergreen agriculture and other “climate-smart” agriculture practices is being taken on as a priority by regional governance bodies in Africa.
Payments for ecosystem and social impact services may be one means to fund the practical on-farm research, testing and knowledge transfer needed for adoption on a wide scale. Carbon funds, from biocarbon projects, are one possible source of finance, but uptake is still at very low levels.
The costs of measurement, reporting and verification can be prohibitive and new methods are needed.
Supported NAMAs (nationally appropriate mitigation actions) programs of evergreen agriculture could be a new approach and play a key role in Africa low carbon development strategies.

Inside Stories on Climate Compatible Development

Kevin Lustig — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 09:11:27 -0500

Briefs in this series:

Inside Stories on Climate Compatible Development: Bangladesh

Kevin Lustig — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 08:49:28 -0500

Key messages

Bangladesh’s Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) is one of the most ambitious of its kind in a developing country.
Collaborative networks have enabled the CDMP to expand its operations.
Support from government leaders ensured that challenges to implementing the CDMP were overcome.
The institutionalisation of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation beyond the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management has proved slow and challenging.
Challenges to CDMP implementation included natural disasters, political unrest and turnover of high-level officials.

Assessing Non-Annex I Pledges: Building a Case for Clarification

Maggie Barron — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 13:53:32 -0500

Introduction

Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) Cancun Agreements, both Annex I and non–Annex I Parties have announced a diversity of mitigation targets and actions respectively for emissions reduction by 2020. While Annex I Parties have put forward economy-wide emissions reduction targets, non–Annex I Parties have proposed a variety of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs). These non–Annex I actions include economy-wide goals (e.g., business-as-usual goals, carbon neutrality goals, and intensity goals) as well as sectoral actions, project-level activities, and policies (e.g., energy efficiency measures, no-till farming, projects related to mass transport systems, and investments in renewable energy sources).

Although the targets and actions of Annex I and non–Annex I Parties are different in form due to the principle of common-but-differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, many are similar in their lack of clarity regarding critical details, assumptions, and methodologies. For example, many of these pledges do not specify aspects such as which sectors or gases are covered, which methodologies are used for estimating expected reductions, if applicable, and/or the role of offsets. Without this and other information, it is challenging to track progress towards fulfillment of pledges, to ensure transparency, to estimate resulting emissions reductions, and to assess whether overall global emissions reductions are adequate for meeting global temperature limits.

For Annex I Parties, these problems should be resolved through the negotiation of common accounting rules. Although beyond the scope of this paper, the design of such rules is a critically important determinant of the regime’s environmental integrity. While common assessment methodologies for non–Annex I countries may be developed in the future, it is unlikely that the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP-17) in Durban, South Africa, will resolve this issue.

There are a number of reasons for this, including the principle of common-but-differentiated responsibilities, the level of complexity of various types of non–Annex I actions, and the lack of experience in this field compared to the common accounting rules developed for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol from which Annex I Parties can draw. In the absence of a set of provisions similar to those discussed for Annex I, clarification of non–Annex I actions can assist in providing transparency and tracking performance for domestic and international purposes.

While this paper focuses on clarification of non–Annex I actions, we first explain how common accounting rules for Annex I targets resolve the lack of clarity surrounding targets for developed countries. The remainder of the paper is devoted to discussing why and how non–Annex I Parties’ pledges should be clarified. In doing so, we describe the benefits of clarification, as well as the related mandates under the Cancun Agreements. We then outline the specific clarification needs associated with each type of non–Annex I action. It should be noted that this paper focuses only on non–Annex I pledges that are stated in terms of emissions reductions or emissions limitation and not on pledges that are framed in terms of indicators unrelated to emissions (e.g., capacity building initiatives). Lastly, we recommend decisions that can be made in Durban to formalize both common accounting rules for Annex I targets and a clarification process for non–Annex I actions.