This analysis provides an assessment of reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to total U.S. emissions that could be achieved by pollution reduction proposals currently under consideration in the 111th Congress. A full description of the methods and assumptions behind this analysis can be found in the Appendix of the PDF document.
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- John Larsen, Senior Associatejlarsen@wri.org+1 (202) 729-7661
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Most Recent Version (PDF, 9 pages, 108 Kb)
Previous Versions of This Analysis
- Proposals in the 111th Congress
- June 25, 2009 (PDF, 7 pages, 308 Kb)
- Allowance Distribution Assessment: June 25, 2009 (PDF, 4 pages, 515 Kb)
- May 19, 2009 (PDF, 7 pages, 500 Kb)
- April 22, 2009 (PDF, 6 pages, 252 Kb)
- Proposals in the 110th Congress
- December 8, 2008 (PDF, 11 pages, 620 Kb)
- September 9, 2008 (PDF, 10 pages, 408 Kb)
- June 18, 2008 (PDF, 9 pages, 450 Kb)
- June 4, 2008 (PDF, 9 pages, 1.1 Mb)
- December 7, 2007 (PDF, 8 pages, 1.7 Mb)
- September 17, 2007 (PDF, 8 pages, 849 Kb)
- February 1, 2007
- Comparisons of Proposals in the 109th Congress
This assessment is an update to a previous analysis WRI released on June 25, 2009 and includes an assessment comparing the Manager’s Amendment to S.1733 the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act (CEJAPA) sponsored by Senators Kerry and Boxer and H.R. 2454 the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACESA) passed by the House of Representatives on June 26, 2009. To account for the effects of different components of these proposals, reduction estimates are divided into three scenarios that are then applied to both proposals considered in this analysis:
- Total emission reductions achieved solely by the proposed emissions caps.
- Total emission reductions achieved by proposed caps and all other complementary requirements, including emission performance standards for uncapped sources, allowances set aside for cost-containment and required components of supplemental reduction programs for reduced deforestation through 2025.
- A range of potential additional reductions that could be achieved through domestic supplemental reductions in all years, international supplemental reductions beyond 2025 and the 1.25 offset requirement for international offsets.
Key Findings
- The emissions caps in the CEJAPA and ACESA achieve reductions of 17 and 14 percent respectively relative to 2005 levels in 2020. By 2050, both the CEJAPA and ACESA achieve reductions of 72 percent relative to 2005 levels.
- Estimates of total US emissions in 2012 under the emissions caps in both the CEJAPA and ACESA are approximately 300 million tonnes higher than recent short-term projections of U.S. emissions for 2010 published by the Energy Information Administration.
- While the CEJAPA and ACESA contain similar complementary measures in addition to emissions caps, they are sometimes applied in different ways and in turn result in somewhat different relative emission reductions. Specifically:
- When all complementary requirements are considered in addition to the caps, GHG emissions would be reduced 29 and 28 percent relative to 2005 levels by 2020 and 73 and 75 percent relative to 2005 levels by 2050 for the CEJAPA and ACESA respectively.
- When additional potential emission reductions are considered, the CEJAPA and ACESA could achieve up to 34 and 33 percent relative to 2005 levels by 2020 and up to 78 and 81 percent relative to 2005 levels by 2050 respectively. The actual amount of reductions will depend on the quantity and quality of international offsets used for compliance and the effectiveness of supplemental reduction programs that do not explicitly contain GHG reduction requirements.
“Emission Reductions Under Cap-and-Trade Proposals in the 111th Congress, 2005-2050” graphically presents total GHG reductions achieved by S.1733 and H.R.2454 relative to U.S. historic and projected emissions under the three reduction scenarios.
“Estimates of Total GHG Emissions and Emission Reductions Achieved by Cap-and-Trade Proposals in the 111th Congress, 2005-2050” presents a table of total GHG reductions that could be achieved by these proposals for selected years.
| Absolute Emissions (Million Metric Tons CO2) |
2010 | 2012 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business as usual emissions | 7,185 | 7,390 | 7,765 | 8,102 | 8,379 | |
| Short-term projected emissions | 6,685 | |||||
| H.R. 2454 Emissions caps only | 6,987 | 6,109 | 4,558 | 3,269 | 1,963 | |
| H.R. 2454 Caps plus all complementary requirements | 6,940 | 5,134 | 4,294 | 3,043 | 1,779 | |
| H.R. 2454 Potential range of additional reductions | 6,940 | 4,759 | 3,816 | 2,624 | 1,383 | |
| S.1733 Emissions caps only | 6,987 | 5,925 | 4,558 | 3,269 | 1,963 | |
| S.1733 Caps plus all complementary requirements | 6,894 | 5,059 | 4,451 | 3,200 | 1,932 | |
| S.1733 Potential range of additional reductions | 6,809 | 4,697 | 4,027 | 2,833 | 1,595 | |
| Percent change from 2005 emissions | 2010 | 2012 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
| Business as usual emissions | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 18 | |
| Short-term projected emissions | -6 | |||||
| H.R. 2454 Emissions caps only | -2 | -14 | -36 | -54 | -72 | |
| H.R. 2454 Caps plus all complementary requirements | -2 | -28 | -40 | -57 | -75 | |
| H.R. 2454 Potential range of additional reductions | -2 | -33 | -46 | -63 | -81 | |
| S.1733 Emissions caps only | -2 | -17 | -36 | -54 | -72 | |
| S.1733 Caps plus all complementary requirements | -3 | -29 | -37 | -55 | -73 | |
| S.1733 Potential range of additional reductions | -4 | -34 | -43 | -60 | -78 | |
| Percent change from 1990 emissions | 2010 | 2012 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
| Business as usual emissions | 18 | 21 | 27 | 33 | 37 | |
| Short-term projected emissions | 10 | |||||
| H.R. 2454 Emissions caps only | 15 | 0 | -25 | -46 | -68 | |
| H.R. 2454 Caps plus all complementary requirements | 14 | -16 | -30 | -50 | -71 | |
| H.R. 2454 Potential range of additional reductions | 14 | -22 | -37 | -57 | -77 | |
| S.1733 Emissions caps only | 15 | -3 | -25 | -46 | -68 | |
| S.1733 Caps plus all complementary requirements | 13 | -17 | -27 | -48 | -68 | |
| S.1733 Potential range of additional reductions | 12 | -23 | -34 | -54 | -74 | |
| Bills analyzed include H.R.2454 as passed by the House of Representatives on June 26, 2009 and the Chairman’s Mark of S.1733 as released on October 23, 2009. “Business as usual emission” projections are from EPA’s reference case for its analysis of the Waxman Markey Discussion Draft. “Short-term projected emissions” represent EIA’s most recent estimates of emissions for 2008-2010. | ||||||






