According to the U.S. Embassy, the area under poppy cultivation in Burma increased by about two thirds between 1987 and 1990, but has remained in the 150,000-ha to 166,000-ha range since then. Most of this expansion has taken place in Shan State, which forms part of the "Golden Triangle" where the borders of Burma, Laos, and Thailand intersect.

In the early 1990s, Kachin State was declared an " opium-free zone" by the Kachin Independendence Organization (KIO), the only organization with such a policy. American satellites subsequently recorded a decline in poppy production. Yet the Far East Economic Review (February 20, 1997) has reported that " the anti-opium scheme seems to have fallen apart after the KIO signed a cease-fire agreement with the [Rangoon] junta. The regime appears to have encouraged local farmers to grow poppies in the areas it controls, and the Kachin rebels have been unable to sustain their anti-drug campaign. Increased production has been observed in the northern and western parts of Kachin State."

However, the KIO has publicly reaffirmed its "no opium" policy, despite the fact that policing against poppy growing has become much more difficult because of the interweaving of KIO and Burmese-controlled areas. According to the KIO, the areas where increased opium production has been reported lie outside its control.

Apparently, while it is not directly involved in poppy cultivation (most of the heroin refineries are owned and operated by ethnic Chinese), the Burmese army permits it around the towns it controls, provided that the opium is refined at its factories, and that taxes are paid at every stage in the production cycle.