Consumption of fish and fishery products (such as fish meal and fish oils) has risen by 240 percent since 1960 and more than fivefold since 1950. Intensive fishing effort has led to the collapse of many important commercial fisheries in the northern hemisphere and pressures are now mounting on southern fisheries.

• Overfishing, pollution, and disturbance of marine habitats have reduced the productivity of many coastal zones, where some 90 percent of the world's fish harvest is caught.
• Marine harvests of fish appear to have peaked and now account for a declining share of total production.
• Aquaculture, or fish farming, has become increasingly important and now provides more than one-quarter of all fish destined for human consumption.

Demand for food fish is projected to increase by at least 34 per cent, and probably by nearer 50 per cent, by 2010. Analysts are virtually unanimous that this level of consumption cannot be met if current production trends continue unchanged.

• The world's few remaining productive fishing grounds will be fished out in their turn and total marine harvests are expected to fall from today's levels.
• Aquaculture production, even under the most optimistic growth projections, would not be able to fill the gap.
• Scarcity will cause fish prices to rise and encourage more international trade.
• This, in turn, will favor subsidized industrial fishing fleets which supply relatively wealthy markets, at the expense of small-scale, subsistence fishers.

Nearly one billion people, most of them in developing countries, currently depend on fish for their primary source of protein. This source is likely to dwindle away within a generation. The outlook for food security and employment among low-income coastal countries could hardly be more serious.

Opportunities for change

In theory, the world's oceans are estimated to be capable of providing a sustainable annual fish catch 17 per cent, or even 24 per cent, higher than 1996 levels. This can be achieved only if international agreements to protect declining fish stocks are honored and if individual countries improve the management of their national fisheries.

The capacity of the global fishing fleet is currently at least 30 per cent, and possibly 150 per cent, greater than is required to catch the current annual harvest. Economic packages which phase out incentives to enter, or continue in, an over-capitalized industry must be implemented more widely, along with adequate compensation for fishers who abandon the profession.

Substantial technical and financial cooperation among governments representing industrial and artisanal fishing interests will be required. Equally importantly, stronger pollution control and conservation measures should be enforced to safeguard marine habitats, particularly fish spawning grounds in coastal areas.

Greater public awareness of over-fishing and destructive fishing practices could influence which fish are consumed and how they are caught, at least among wealthy consumers.