A study conducted in 2005 by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) reveals that climate change will significantly impact the global food supply.

• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). "Impact of Climate Change, Pests and Diseases on Food Security and Poverty Reduction." Special event background document for the 31st Session of the Committee on World Food Security. Rome. 23-26 May 2005 at www.fao.org/clim/default.htm. PDF available at www.fao.org/clim/docs/CFS/CFS.pdf; MS PowerPoint available at www.fao.org/clim/docs/CFS/Presen.htm.

The study quantified crop damages using spatial soil and climate data and then overlaid projections for productivity potential under a changed climate. The results project a loss of 11% of arable land in the developing world due to climate change, including a loss of cereal production in 65 developing countries (for these countries, the loss equates to roughly 16% of agricultural GDP in 1995 dollars). The study suggested that some of the losses would be offset: "new" land available at high latitudes could become available in Russia, Northern Europe, and North America. However, the distributional effects would, overall, be quite negative.

Implications: Not only will food security be threatened by climate change impacts, but the agricultural GDP loss will also result in economic devastation for many developing countries. The developing world already has to contend with food shortages as a result of invasive species, inefficient food distribution, lack of arable land, and other factors, and climate change presents yet another factor that wreaks havoc on food supply. Climate change, in additional to exacerbating these effects, may also lead to food shortages and trigger social unrest, as well as accelerate malnutrition and disease. While overall food production may not be threatened, those least able to cope will have another cost: food imports from the North.