"Ecosystem services" are the conversion of natural assets -- such as trees, snow cover, and soil fertility -- into valuable benefits such as wood products, winter tourism, and arable land. A scientific study conducted in Europe in 2005 states that climate change will alter -- usually for the worse -- the supply of European ecosystem services over the next century.

• Schröter, Dagmar et al. "Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe." Science 310(5752): 1333-1337 (25 November 2005). Science Express on 27 October 2005 at www.sciencemag.org

While climate change will result in enhancements of some ecosystem services, a large portion will be adversely impacted because of drought, reduced soil fertility, fire, and other climate change-driven factors. Thus, Europe can expect a decline in arable land, a decline in Mediterranean forested areas (although there will be an overall increase in European forest), a decline in the terrestrial carbon sink and soil fertility, and an increase in the numbers of basins with water scarcity. This will all increase biological impoverishment, and lead to a significant decline in mountain tourism. While the study suggests all of Europe will be affected, its primary focus was on the southern portion around the Mediterranean.

Implications: While this study assessed ecosystem services only in Europe, the consequences are likely applicable to ecosystem services across the globe. Furthermore, other parts of the world with lower levels of economic development and poorer infrastructure (including in particular those countries that primarily rely on agriculture or fiber for their economic well-being) are less likely to be able to cope with declining services than Europe.