Species' ranges and climate change

A recent study of 16 Spanish butterfly species documents a move upward in elevation as a result of temperature rise.

While models have projected that species are likely to move upwards in elevation as a result of temperature rise in the future, scientists have recently documented that the shift is already occurring. The 16 butterfly species studied in central Spain have shifted their ranges by 212 meters (about 700 feet) in elevation during the last 30 years. The area has seen an increase in 1.3 degrees Celsius mean annual temperature. The scientists project that the species' habitat has already decreased by one-third and is likely to decrease by 50%-80% during the next 100 years if climate change is left unabated.

Implications: The results suggest that climate change is already causing species' range shifts and habitat loss with long-term implications for species' survivability. Moreover, recent scientific studies (including Thomas, J.A. "Comparative Losses of British Butterflies, Birds, and Plants and the Global Extinction Crisis." Science 303(5665): 1879-1881. 19 March 2004 at www.sciencemag.org) have suggested that butterflies act as indicator species and signal early warnings -- much like a canary in a coal mine. This species characteristic supports one of the conclusions from Wilson's study that more widespread ecosystem loss is already underway, and will likely become more severe in the future.