A recent scientific study exploring climate change impacts on sub-Saharan African plant species predicts that climate change will trigger species migration and lead to habitat reduction.
- McClean, Colin J. et al. “African Plant Diversity and Climate Change.” Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden 92(2): 139–152. July 2005 at apt.allenpress.com/aptonline/?request=get-toc&issn=0026-6493&volume=092&issue=02
The authors examined over 5,000 African plant species in climate models and predict that 81%-97% of the plant species’ suitable habitats will decrease in size or shift due to climate change. By 2085, between 25% and 42% of the species’ habitats are expected to be lost altogether.
Implications: While these models are only a preliminary step in assessing climate change impacts to sub-Saharan African plant diversity, they do provide a clear indication of the vulnerability of plant species in Africa to climate change. Ecosystems services that rely on sub-Saharan African plant diversity, including indigenous foods, as well as both locally used and potentially exotic plant-based medicines, are likely to be adversely impacted. It must be noted that their study also assumes that shifting species will be able to move – and not have migration pathways blocked by human development, or other geographic features. If such assumptions are not borne out, the overall decline could be even more severe.
