Stories to watch in 2006: The science of climate change -- The debate is all but over
Last year, we said to pay attention to the accelerating flow of scientific studies of climate change. It turns out that 2005 was a landmark year for significant, compelling new research on climate change. Unfortunately, the findings are incredibly worrisome. Taken collectively, they suggest that the world may well have moved past a key physical tipping point; the scale of the changes reported in 2005 suggest that what were historically small, incremental changes in climate-related phenomena have suddenly made a huge leap.
One study published last year in the journal Science found that of the 244 Antarctic glaciers, 87 percent of them have retreated at unprecedented and accelerating rates. NASA scientists have long been tracking Arctic Sea ice, and findings reported last year show significant retreat over recent years. The melting of Arctic Sea ice, according to NASA, is occurring more rapidly than predicted; a record low in winter sea ice extent was recorded in 2005. Ice melting leads to changes in ocean salinity and potential alterations to thermohaline circulation, the ocean's conveyer belt effect.
The Atlantic Ocean's conveyor belt system brings warmer water to the North Atlantic and moderates the climate of Northern Europe. A scientific study last year provides data suggesting that this Atlantic conveyor belt is slowing, with volumes up to 30 percent below those during the period between 1957 and 2004. The reduction in flow is extraordinary: the equivalent of 60 times the flow of the Amazon River. With oceans covering 71 percent of the Earth's surface, any major disruptions like this will have huge impacts.
Ice and snow melt are also important to consider. A study published last year in Nature suggests that the 25 percent decrease in Peruvian glaciers could lead to major reductions in water supply. The case is exemplary of a looming global problem because one sixth of the world's population depends on snow and glaciers for its water supply. Decreasing glacial meltwater could lead to loss of potable water, population displacement, significant agricultural losses, and massive ecosystem degradation.
For more on the science, I urge you to visit our website (www.wri.org), where we have compiled and published some of the most significant of the 2005 climate change findings.
Scientists around the world have voiced increasing frustration about the failure of the press and political leaders to recognize the strength of climate science and the urgency of the problem. They will become increasingly outspoken in the coming year as the science becomes even more compelling — and the press will have to respond.