Stories to watch in 2006: Environmental policy in the United States
Despite the climate gridlock at the federal level, last year we said it was worth watching what was going on outside of Washington. Let's start by looking at cities; 194 American cities have now made climate commitments, reflecting the messages mayors are getting on their sensitive political antennae. Americans increasingly are coming to believe global warming is a problem. In November 2005, a Fox News Poll reported that 77 percent of Americans believe global warming is happening and that it is a serious problem. That surprised me, given the source. Nevertheless, public opinion is driving action.
At the state level, twenty-eight states have climate action plans. Twenty-three
states have renewable portfolio standards, or requirements that a certain percentage of electrical power comes from renewable options. New Mexico joined the Chicago Climate Exchange to begin trading greenhouse gas reductions. Last June, Governor Schwarzenegger announced a program that puts California on a path toward 80 percent reductions by 2050. With significant input from WRI, seven Northeastern states are moving forward with a "cap-and-trade" system for carbon dioxide emissions which will be the first regulated market in the U.S. The seven states alone produce greenhouse gases roughly equivalent to countries like Italy, France, and Mexico.
In 2005, Republican moderates took over the floor of the House of Representatives to prevent drilling in the Artic National Wildlife Refuge. I think in 2006 we'll see an increasing desire on the part of members of both the House and Senate to find climate bills to vote on. For the upcoming elections they will want to take some action home with them. I don’t expect to see a greenhouse gas reduction measure or cap and trade system passed in 2006, but I do anticipate more votes like the one in the Senate last year which was a nonbinding resolution urging some sort of action on global warming.
The climate debate will become increasingly visible in the upcoming mid-term elections.